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Three outsiders to trade at this week's events
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Read my Danish Championship preview here
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Read my BMW Championship preview here
This week's FedEx Cup Playoff event, the BMW Championship, hasn't been a great event for longshots.
Patrick Cantlay is the largest priced winner in the last five years, but he was only a 27.026/1 chance so we might be up against it.
Keegan Bradley did cause a shock in 2018 though, getting the better of Justin Rose in a playoff at Aronimink when a 210.0209/1 chance and this week's venue, Castle Pines, has a history of producing longshot winners.
Castle Pines hosted a now defunct Modified Stableford event on the PGA Tour called the International between 1986 and 2006 and that tournament produced more that it's fair share of shock winners, with six of the last 11 winners going off at huge odds.
Situated some 30 miles south of Denver in the foothills of the Rocky Mountains, Castle Pines is a long course but given it's more than 6,000 feet above sea level, it doesn't play as long as its yardage suggests and length off the tee wasn't the essential skillset required at the International. The key to victory most years was putting.
The best putter in the field this week is Denny McCarthy, who ranks highly for all the various metrics on the PGA Tour. He ranks sixth for Putting Average, third for Strokes Gained: Putting, second for Total Putting and first for both Putts Per Round and Overall Putting Average.
The 31-year-old is yet to win on the PGA Tour but the closest he's come to getting off the mark was in the Memorial Tournament last year, where he was beaten in extra time by Viktor Hovland. Matched at a low of 1.182/11 before Hovland made the only birdie of the day at the 17th hole, he did nothing wrong that day and that's another reason to think he'll go well here.
The Memorial Tournament is staged at another Jack Nicklaus design with Bentgrass greens and given he'd also finished fifth there the year before, that performance was no fluke.
McCarthy sat tied for the lead at halfway in Memphis last week before a poor third round saw him slip out of contention, but he rallied on Sunday with a two-under-par 68 to finish ninth so he arrives in fair form.
Beaten in another playoff at the Texas Open back in April, McCarthy is getting close to that illusive first title and this could just be the week.
Back Denny McCarthy (2Us)
Place order to lay 8 Us @ 10.09/1 & 12 Us @ 2.01/1
Over on the DP World Tour, the Danish Championship is staged at a completely new venue this year so we're up against it somewhat.
The Trent Jones II Lübker Golf Course has been used for four Nordic Golf League events, and it also staged the ECCO Tour Championship on the Challenge Tour back in 2011, but there are only 18 men in the line up that have played here before. And I'm happy to chance one at a huge price.
Lübker Golf Course is described as a parkland/heathland course but looking at the course's website it appears tree-lined and quite tight at times which reminded me of Rinkven International GC in Belgium.
Rinkven has hosted the Soudal Open since 2018 and its last year's winner, Simon Forsstrom, that I thought was worth chancing at a huge price here.
Forsstrom finished 28th in the Czech Masters last week after a slow start and he's twice finished runner-up in Denmark - once on the Challenge Tour and once on the Alps Tour.
He also finished 11th at this venue on the Alps Tour two years ago, when he shot 67 in round two, and I was happy to take 300.0299/1.
Place order to lay 8 Us @ 10.09/1 & 12 Us @ 2.01/1
I take no credit whatsoever for my final pick, Jonas Blixt, who is one of Matt Cooper's three each-way selections.
Now 40, the three-time PGA Tour winner, who was second at the US Masters 10 years ago, can't be described as in form.
Far from in fact, but as Matt highlights, the Swede has an incredibly strong record at Trent Jones II tracks and although he's shortened up fractionally from the 500/1501.00 that Matt took on Monday, he still looks like an interesting runner at 475/1 with the Sportsbook.
Back Jonas Blixt (0.5Us each-way)