Andalucía Masters: Danish duo backed in Spain at 49/1 and 89/1

• Driving Distance the key stat last year

• In-running drama expected

• Read my Shriners Children's Open preview here

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Tournament History

Three weeks after Angel Hidalgo's playoff success over Jon Rahm at the Open de Espana, the DP World Tour returns to Spain for the tenth edition of the Andalucía Masters and Rahm will be the warm favourite.

The tournament made a welcome return to the DP World Tour schedule seven years ago, seven years after the first two editions were won by Graeme McDowell and Sergio Garcia.

Valderrama had been the venue for the tournament since its inception, but it signed a five-year deal with LIV Golf after the 2022 renewal of this event, so the tournament moved to Real Club de Golf Sotogrande 12 months ago and we're back there again this time around.

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Venue

Real Club de Golf Sotogrande, San Roque, Andalucia, Spain.

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Course Details

Par 72, 7099 yards
Stroke Average in 2023 - 71.43

Real Club de Golf Sotogrande was the first course in Europe to be designed by legendry course designer Robert Trent Jones and it first opened in 1964.

It hosted the Open de España just two years later, with Argentinian Roberto De Vicenzo trotting up by seven strokes, a year before he won the Open Championship at Royal Liverpool.

A complete restoration of Real Club de Golf Sotogrande was agreed in 2011 and with the help of architects Roger Rulewich, who worked for 35 years as Jones' right-hand man, and his partner David Fleury, the course was restored to its originally design.

Bunkers were modernised, nearly 37 hectares were turfed with Certified 419 Bermuda, which was laid on fairways and rough, the fairways were reshaped, and the greens were reshaped and reduced back to their original size.

According to the course's website, the putting surfaces had increased by almost 45% over the years.

The course re-opened in 2016.

The fairways are described as wide and the greens delicately moulded and very fast. They're also very well protected by 69 of the 100 odd bunkers at the course.

Real Club de Golf Sotogrande is not a long course, but it's very often protected by the coastal winds.

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Weather Forecast

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TV Coverage

Live on Sky Sports all four days, starting at 13:00 on Thursday.

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First Nine Tournament Winners with Exchange Prices

2010 - Graeme McDowell -2 16.5
2011 - Sergio Garcia -6 7.413/2
2012-2016 - No Event
2017 - Sergio Garcia -12 7.06/1
2018 - Sergio Garcia -12 (54 holes) 5.59/2
2019 - Christiaan Bezuidenhout -10 120.0119/1
2020 - John Catlin +2 240.0239/1
2021 - Matt Fitzpatrick -6 20.019/1
2022 - Adrian Otaegui -19 65.064/1
2023 - Adrian Meronk -16 25.024/1

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What will it take to win the Andalucia Masters?

With just one edition of the event staged here previously, we haven't got much to go on, and the stats from last year's renewal aren't especially helpful.

Here's the top-six with the traditional stats and the Strokes Gained stats.

Adrian Meronk -16 DD-11 DA-54 GIR-23 SC-51 PA 1
Matti Schmid -15 DD-4 DA-10 GIR-29 SC-21 PA 4
Richard Mansell -14 DD-5 DA-13 GIR-18 SC-3 PA 34
Louis De Jager -13 DD-12 DA-38 GIR-2 SC-46 PA 16
Chase Hanna -13 DD-17 DA-54 GIR-8 SC-42 PA 18
Jeff Winther -12 DD-54 DA-11 GIR-8 SC-5 PA 35

DD - Driving Distance
DA - Driving Accuracy
GIR - Greens In Regulation
SC - Scrambling
PA - Putting Average

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Adrian Meronk -16 SGT-49 SGA-17 SGATG-54 SGT2G -40 SGP -1
Matti Schmid -15 SGT-2 SGA-25 SGATG-30 SGT2G -3 SGP -18
Richard Mansell -14 SGT-1 SGA-22 SGATG-9 SGT2G -1 SGP -50
Louis De Jager -13 SGT-52 SGA-3 SGATG-15 SGT2G -5 SGP -26
Chase Hanna -13 SGT-53 SGA-27 SGATG-26 SGT2G -33 SGP -3
Jeff Winther -12 SGT-27 SGA-14 SGATG-28 SGT2G -10 SGP -25

SGT - Strokes Gained Off the Tee
SGA - Strokes Gained On Approach
SGATG - Strokes Gained Around the Green
SGT2G - Strokes Gained Tee to Green
SGP - Strokes Gained Putting

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The numbers from last year's renewal suggest length off the tee is more important than accuracy and the first two home putted very well.

The winner, Adrian Meronk, wasn't great around the greens but Richard Mansell in third, ranked third for Scrambling, and the two players to finish tied for seventh, Jeon Weon Ko and Marcel Siem, ranked first and second for that stat.

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In-Play Tactics

Last year's renewal was a very entertaining one and we witnessed all sorts of drama.

Wind is often a factor here and the morning starters in round one enjoyed much the better conditions, averaging 2.11 shots better than those that teed it up on Thursday afternoon.

James Morrison shot an eight-under-par 64 to lead and nine of the top-11 after the opening round had begun the event in the morning.

It levelled up a bit on day two, but the AM-PM side of the draw still shot 1.41 strokes less than the other side of the draw.

The winner, Meronk, was on the right side of the draw but he didn't take advantage of it. He was matched at as high as 400.0399/1 when he trailed by eight in a tie for 55^th after a 72 in round one.

He was still five adrift at halfway, and having sat tied for fifth and only four back with a round to go, he was trailing the co-third round leader, Matti Schmid, by as many as seven after five holes of round four.

An eagle at the par five fifth saw Meronk start the comeback and his charge was boosted greatly by a hole-out eagle at the ninth.

That seemed to really energise the giant Pole and after birdies at 10, 12 and 14, having trailed by seven with just 14 to play, he was just one behind the leader.

Schmid, who hit a low of 1.528/15, was still in control with just three holes to play but everything changed all at once.

Moments after Meronk had drained his 10-foot birdie putt at the par three 17^th, Schmid missed his par putt from inside six feet at 16 and it was a two-stroke swing that the German just couldn't recover from.

We can't read too much into one edition, but a possible draw bias is something to look out for and a slow start can clearly be overcome.

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Market Leaders

Jon Rahm is the warm favourite and rightly so given the strength of the field and his current wellbeing.

He's won twice on the LIV Tour since finishing seventh in the Open Championship in July, he traded at a low of 1.182/11 when finishing fifth at the Olympics in August and he was matched at a low of 1.42/5 at the Open de Espana, before losing the playoff three weeks ago.

He was also a respectable seventh last time out in the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, so it's hard to make a case for taking him on. But I'm happy to swerve him at just 3/14.00.

That's the same price he was trading at before the off at the Open de Espana, but he had a great bank of course form there and he's playing here for the first time.

The in-form Dane, Rasmus Hojgaard, is the only other player trading at less than 25.024/1 and I'm happy to leave him alone too but I was happy to back his twin brother, Nicolai, at 50.049/1.

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Selections

The twins have eight DP World Tour titles between them, with Rasmus currently leading Nicolai 5-3, but it will be interesting to see where they end up in the fullness of time.

Both players are straight out of the top drawer and when they're both on song it's almost impossible to split them. But Nicolai has the biggest title in the bag (the DP World Tour Championship), he's already finished second a couple of times on the PGA Tour, and he also contended at the Masters on debut in April before eventually finishing 16^th.

I suspect he's slightly the better player and I'd wager he ends up with the fractionally better career in the end, so I was very surprised to see him open up at 50.049/1 here given last week's promising performance in Paris.

A 72 on Friday put him behind the eight ball after an opening 66. However, rounds of 68 and 69 over the weekend saw him finish the week in 18^th place.

He found water four times throughout the week and that hampered his challenge, but he still ranked first for Greens In Regulation.

If he can carry forward that improvement with his irons, he's likely to be a factor this week and he's still a fair price at anything over 40.039/1.

It's easy to overcomplicate things at times but my only other selection is a very straightforward one and it's great to see that Matt Cooper likes his chances too.

Denmark's Jeff Winther was matched at a low of 2.77/4 last year when finishing sixth, having been tied for the lead with a round to go, and he was matched at a low of 3.613/5 on Sunday before finishing tied for second at the Open de France, after a quite brilliant 64 on Sunday.

A final round bogey-free 64 for Jeff Winther 🇩🇰#FedExOpenDeFrance pic.twitter.com/rxnt4s9cw0

-- DP World Tour (@DPWorldTour) October 13, 2024

With very obvious course and current form, I thought he was impossible to ignore at such a big price.

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Now read my Shriners Hospital's Open preview here

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*You can follow me on Twitter @SteveThePunter

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