Shriners Children's Open: 79/1 Kizzire the only pick again

• Tom Kim looking to make it three in-a-row

• Driving Accuracy a ket stat at TPC Summerlin

• Read my Andulacia Masters preview here

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Tournament History

First staged in 1983, the Shriners Children's Open used to be a pro-am staged over five rounds, played out on multiple courses. In 2004 they reduced the event to just 72-holes and since 2008, TPC Summerlin has hosted the event alone.

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Venue

TPC Summerlin, Las Vegas, Nevada.

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Course Details

Par 71, 7.255 yards
Stroke index in 2023 - 69.3

Designed in 1992 by Bobby Weed (aided by Fuzzy Zoeller), TPC Summerlin is a very easy track. There's plenty of room off the tee (although fairways do need to be found), the bentgrass greens are large, receptive, and usually set to run at around 12 on the Stimpmeter.

TPC Summerlin is consistently the easiest par 71 encountered on the PGA Tour.

The 2019 scoring average of 68.86 was a record low since its debuted in 1992 and the 2020 average of just 68.34 was the lowest of all par 71s on the PGA Tour in 16 completed seasons.

TPC Summerlin is at altitude, so it doesn't play anywhere near as far as the yardage suggests and it's a very easy track for the world's best players. As an indication of how easy the course is, Smylie Kaufman shot a 10-under-par 61 to come from off the pace to win nine years ago and J.J. Henry in 2013, Rod Pampling in 2016, and Patrick Cantlay in 2022, have all fired an 11-under-par 60.

In benign conditions, it's a very easy course indeed and given the rough is cut to as short as two and half inches most years, there's a decent chance that we see a round in the 50s.

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Weather Forecast

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TV Coverage

Live on Sky Sports all four days, starting at 18:00 on Thursday.

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Last Eight Winners with Pre-event Exchange Prices

2023 - Tom Kim -20 14.013/1
2022 - Tom Kim -24 28.027/1
2021 - Sungjae Im -24 44.043/1
2020 - Martin Laird -23 (playoff) 250.0249/1
2019 - Kevin Na -23 120.0119/1 (playoff)
2018 - Bryson DeChambeau -21 16.531/2
2017 - Patrick Cantlay -9 22.021/1 (playoff)
2016 - Rod Pampling -20 550.0549/1

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What Will it Take to Win the Shriners?

It's probably best to largely disregard the 2017 result, when extremely windy weather kept a lid on the scoring. Patrick Cantlay's winning score of nine-under-par was far from typical. The eventual 10^th, JJ Spaun, was on 11-under at the halfway stage and the highest winning score prior to 2017, since the event became a 72-hole event in 2008, was 16-under-par eight years ago.

Tom Kim only got to 20-under-par when defending the title 12 months ago, but the previous four victors all got to at least 23-under-par!

The Shriners is a low scoring birdie-fest and in 17 of the 20 editions since it became a 72-hole event the winner has reached at least 20-under-par.

On average, the winners have made 24 birdies on route to victory and Kim made 27 last year

Nothing really sticks out statistically but a good angle in is to concentrate on the fairly straight hitters as finding fairways appears key to going low here.

Driving Accuracy used to be a completely irrelevant stat here but that's all changed of late. The fairways are wide, some of the easiest on tour, and the rough is minimal so it's hard to figure out why accuracy is so important now, but it clearly is.

When Bryson DeChambeau ranked fourth for DA in 2018, he was the tenth winner in-a-row to rank inside the top-18 for that stat. The five winners prior to 2009 had an average DA ranking of 43rd so something's changed and it looks like something to be wary off. Even though it's a resort course with minimal rough, indiscriminately bombing it off the tee with a disregard for accuracy hasn't got the job done here recently.

Kim ranked seventh for Driving Accuracy last year but three of the last seven winners have ranked inside the top five for DA and the last eight victors have all ranked better for accuracy than they have for distance. The last winner to rank higher for length than accuracy was Kaufman in 2005, who ranked fifth for DD, but he still ranked as high as seventh for accuracy.

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Is There an Identikit Winner?

Kim went off favourite when defending last year and we've seen a few well-fancied winners of late but lots of big outsiders have prospered.

In the old five-round, multiple-course format, outsiders went in year after year and between 2004 and 2010 every winner went off at a triple-figure price. The likes of Phil Tataurangi, Andre Stolz and Wes Short Jr, to name but three, were almost impossible to spot before the off.

The 2020 winner, Martin Laird, was matched at a high of 400.0399/1 before the off and the three winners before Cantlay in 2017 were huge outsiders too.

Ben Martin went off at 250.0249/1 ten years ago, Smylie Kaufman was a 300.0299/1 chance nine years ago and very few people could have picked out Rod Pampling in 2016, who was matched at a high of 670.0669/1.

In-between 2011 and 2013 there was a three-year blip where the winners were quite well-fancied. Kevin Na was well-backed in 2011, Webb Simpson was the second favourite in 2012 and Ryan Moore went off favourite a year later. Na went off at a triple-figure price in 2019, when winning for a second time, but the two winners before him, and the last three winners, have been easy enough to pick.

PGA Tour rookies and first-time winners are commonplace at Summerlin too. The last six winners had all won previously but Cantlay was the seventh first time PGA Tour winner to take the title in 11 years and its 28 years since a certain Tiger Woods broke his duck here. Previous course form is a big plus though...

Kim was playing here for the first time when winning two years ago but the runner-up, Patrick Cantlay, is something of an event specialist and he has course form figures reading 1-2-2-8-2.

The 2021 winner, Sungjae Im, had been 15^th and 13^th on his two previous visits, Laird was winning for the first time in seven years in 2020, but he was winning his second Shriners title, having won the 2009 edition in extra time, and he was the second two-time winner in-a-row. Na had won the title for a first time back in 2011 before doubling up in 2019 and both men have also finished second at TPC Summerlin.

Following Kim's successful defence last year, three of the last six winners had won here previously.

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Winner's Position and Exchange Price Pre-Round Four

2023 - Tom Kim - tied for the lead 3.7511/4
2022 - Tom Kim - tied for the lead 3.1511/5
2021 - Sungjae Im - solo 6^th - trailing by three 11.521/2
2020 - Martin Laird - tied for the lead 6.611/2
2019 - Kevin Na - led by two strokes 2.3211/8
2018 - Bryson DeChambeau - tied for the lead 2.588/5
2017 - Patrick Cantlay T4 - trailing by four 13.525/2
2016 - Rod Pampling - trailing by one stroke 14.527/2

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In-Play Tactics

The 2017 finish was very odd, but it can be explained by the conditions. Alex Cejka lost in a playoff, having been matched at 1000.0999/1 and having trailed by eight with a round to go and the other two playoff protagonists had trailed by four and five strokes through 54 holes, but Cejka got lucky. He played in benign conditions before the wind buffeted the leaders and caused havoc and with the exception of another strange result, in 2015, up with the pace is where you have needed to be here.

Smylie Kaufman was also matched at 1000.0999/1 nine years ago but his final round 61 from seven adrift and tied 28^th was enough to see him win by one over a bunch of six players that included Patton Kizzire, who himself shot 62!

The 2015 and 2017 results show it's definitely possible to win from off the pace, especially if the weather has it's say, but the vast majority of winners are up with the pace throughout, although Kim started slowly last year.

Na trailed by five in a tie for 43^rd after round one in 2019 and that's the furthest any winner has trailed after the opening round in as far back as I've checked (1996). And that's including the old five round editions, so a decent start is imperative, but Kim sat tied for 22^nd last year and he was 26^th and six off the lead at halfway!

Kim shot 62 in round three for the second year in-a-row to move into a tie for the lead and last year's slow start certainly went against the grain.

He was inside the top-four all week two years ago and never more than two adrift, Im sat second after round one and he led at halfway before he slipped back in round three to sit sixth in 2021, Laird was inside the front four places all week four years ago and Na was never headed after a 62 in round two in 2019. As many as nine of the last 17 winners have been in front after 36 holes.

Kim has been tied for the lead with a round to go in each of the last two years and the three winners before Im were all in front after 54 holes too.

As many as 12 of the last 18 winners have been leading or co-leading with a round to go so unless the weather's poor, concentrating on the leaders after 54 holes makes sense.

In calm conditions, it's very hard to make up ground late on here but a tight finish isn't uncommon and three of the last seven renewals have gone to extra time. And had Cantlay not hit an horrendous drive on 18 two years ago, that would have read four of the last seven. Cantlay lost by three, but he and Kim were tied on the 72^nd tee, which may explain his absence 12 months ago, and why he's not in the field again this year.

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Favourite Kim seeks historic threepeat

Tom Kim arrives in Vegas looking to achieve a feat that hasn't been accomplished on the PGA Tour in more than 13 years, and it's a feat that only a trio of players have managed to achieve this century.

Stuart Appleby won what's now called The Sentry in 2004, 2005 and 2006 and Tiger Woods won the same event for at least three years in-a-row an incredible four times.

He even won the Farmers Insurance Open four times running but nobody has gone back-to-back-to back since Steve Stricker won the John Deere Classic for a third consecutive year in 2011.

Scottie Scheffler had a chance to emulate the trio at TPC Scottsdale in February, but he could only finish third.

Although it's a big ask, in what looks a weak renewal, he's not an awful price at 14/115.00 but he hasn't been at his best this year and I'm happy to swerve him.

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Kizzire the only pick again

I'll have at least two outsiders for the Find Me a 100 Winner column later today or tomorrow but for now my only selection is last week's pick, Patton Kizzire.

Kizzire finished second here on debut back in 2015 and he was fourth two years later, so we know he likes the venue but it's the quirky way he won his two Korn Ferry Tour titles and his first two PGA Tour events that interests me too.

In-between his two Korn Ferry Tour victories he missed the cut and finished sixth and in-between his first and second PGA Tour wins, he finished 45^th and 15^th.

Since winning the Procore Championship by five strokes last month, he's finished 11^th in the Sanderson Farms Championship and 43^rd at the Black Desert Championship last week so could he be primed for a unique treble?

I thought he was too big at 80.079/1 given his course and current form anyway but the fact that he had two starts in-between his first and second wins and his third and fourth wins is just an added boost.

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Now read my Andulacia Masters preview here

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*You can follow me on Twitter @SteveThePunter