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Hot putting the key to success in the Golden State
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Fantastic event for huge outsiders
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Read my Abu Dhabi Championship preview here
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Read my American Express preview here
Tournament History
After a couple of weeks in Hawaii, the PGA Tour moves on to California for the American Express.
The American Express began life in 1960 as the Palm Springs Desert Golf Challenge - a five-round pro-am won by Arnold Palmer. Between 1965 and 2012 it was known as the Bob Hope Classic before Humana took over sponsorship and revived its fortunes.
The tournament had been failing to attract quality fields and the perception was that the five-round format had much to do with its demise. It was reduced to the conventional four rounds in 2012 and it's been a much better received event as a result.
The tournament is a Pro-Am staged over three different courses (listed below) in rotation over the first three days with the host course, the PGA West TPC Stadium Course, staging the final round.
Venue
The Stadium Course, La Quinta, California
PGA West (TPC Stadium Course), par 72, 7,158 yards - Scoring Average in 2022 - 70.57
PGA West (Nicklaus Tournament Course), par 72, 7,147 yards - Scoring Average in 2022 - 70.26
La Quinta Country Club, par 72, 7,060 yards - Scoring Average in 2022 - 69.92
The Pete Dye-designed PGA West Stadium Course was used for the first time seven years ago and it's usually the hardest of the three courses used - although it wasn't last year (see averages above).
La Quinta was the easiest of the three courses again last year and between 2017 and 2020 it was the easiest par 72 used on the PGA Tour for four seasons in-a-row.
With amateurs playing, the set-ups are deliberately less demanding than usually encountered on the PGA Tour and very low scoring is the norm. The Bermuda greens are usually set at around 11 on the stimpmeter and the rough is minimal.
TV Coverage
Live on Sky Sports all four days starting at 16:30 on Thursday
Last Seven Winners with Pre-event Exchange Prices
2022 - Hudson Swafford -23 250.0249/1
2021 - Si Woo Kim -23 55.054/1
2020 - Andrew Landry -26 500.0499/1
2019 - Adam Long -26 1000.0999/1
2018 - Jon Rahm -22 10.519/2 (playoff)
2017 - Hudson Swafford -20 70.069/1
2016 - Jason Dufner -25 48.047/1
What Will it Take to Win the American Express?
What you do off the tee in this event is largely irrelevant.
Hudson Swafford ranked 13th for Driving Distance and 37th for Driving Accuracy last year but as a demonstration of how unimportant the driving stats are, the 2020 winner, Andrew Landry, ranked 61st for Driving Distance and when Swafford won the title for the first time in 2017 he ranked the 61st for Driving Accuracy. Landry ranked third for DA and Swafford ranked fifth for DD.
Swafford ranked 11th for Strokes Gained Tee to Green 12 months ago and he ranked 21st for Greens in Regulation and that pushed the average GIR ranking of the last 14 winners up to 12th.
Swafford ranked fifth for Putting Average and second for Strokes Gained Putting.
This is a tough event to evaluate statistically as it's basically just a birdie-fest and it will undoubtedly boil down to who holes the most putts on Sunday.
It's nigh on impossible to know who's going to have a great week with the flatsick and on his way to a tied 14th last year, the 2018 winner, Rahm, was being caught describing the set-up as a "piece of sh*t putting contest".
As derogatory as that description is, it's pretty much spot on but Par 4 Scoring or Par 4 Performance are possibly stats to consider.
The 2021 winner, Si Woo Kim only ranked 10th for Par 4 Scoring but the man who finished second, Patrick Cantlay, ranked first, Swafford ranked second last year and the two winners before Kim, Landry and Adam Long, ranked first and second. Jon Rahm only ranked fifth in 2018 but the seven winners before him topped the Par 4 Scoring.
Is There an Angle In?
Given the first event of the year, the Sentry Tournament of Champions in Hawaii is a limited field event, and that last week's Sony Open is also staged in Hawaii, this is the first PGA Tour event of the year on the mainland and it's the first event of the year for a number of contenders. And that looks like something of a handicap...
Since Charley Hoffman won this when playing in his first event of the year in 2007, 14 of the next 15 winners have all had at least one start. Bill Haas, back in 2015, is the odd man out.
Interestingly, a decent performance doesn't appear to be vital. Swafford finished 48th in the Sony Open last year and Kim finished a respectable 25th in the Sony two years ago but the two winners before him both missed the cut at the Sony and that was the case for the five winners between 2008 and 2012.
Of those seven winners to miss out on weekend employment at the Sony, the 2012 winner, Mark Wilson, is the only one to have also teed it up at the Sentry Tournament of Champions the week before - where he'd finished 18th.
The 2013 winner, Brian Gay, had finished 31st at the Sony in his sole previous start and Patrick Reed, the 2014 champ, had finished 16th in the Sentry TOC but the three winners before Long had all shown something significant before they won.
Jason Dufner took the title having finished ninth in the Sony six years ago, Swafford signalled his wellbeing with a 13th place at the Sony in 2017 and the 2018 winner, Rahm, had finished runner-up to Dustin Johnson in the Sentry TOC. He didn't play the Sony.
Is There an Identikit Winner?
Kim was a 55.054/1 chance two years ago but this is a great event for really-big outsiders. Swafford was matched at 350.0349/1 when the market first opened last year and the two winners before Kim went off at 1000.0999/1 and 500.0499/1. And between 2008 and 2014, all seven winners went off at a triple-figure price!
Multiple event winners are fairly common so previous winners are well worth considering closely.
Arnold Palmer loved this event and he won it five times between 1960 and 1973, and Swafford became the eighth player, other than Palmer, to win it a second time when he took the title last year.
Winner's Position and Exchange Price Pre-Round Four
2022 - Hudson Swafford T5th - trailing by three 25.024/1
2021 - Si Woo Kim tied for the lead 5.14/1
2020 - Andrew Landry tied for the lead 3.412/5
2019 - Adam Long solo 3rd - trailing by three 23.022/1
2018 - Jon Rahm T4th - trailing by two 4.03/1
2017 - Hudson Swafford T3rd - trailing by two 8.07/1
2016 - Jason Dufner led by two strokes 1.875/6
In-Play Tactics
Bill Haas sat tied for 16th and four off the lead after round one in 2015 but the 2013 winner, Patrick Reed, won wire-to wire and the six winners after Haas all sat inside the top-six places and within three of the lead after the opening round.
Like Reed nine years ago, Jason Duffner led after every round in 2016, Rahm led after round one and was never outside the top-four in 2018 and both Swafford in 2017 and Long in 2019, sat second after the opening round, suggesting a fast start is essential but Swafford blew that theory out of the water last year...
A lacklustre 70 on Thursday saw him sitting tied for 73rd (trailing by eight) and he could still be backed at odds in excess of 200.0199/1 at halfway when he trailed by five in a tie for 24th.
Swafford certainly bucked the trends but Patrick Cantlay had shown us 12 months earlier that it was possible to come with a late rattle.
He'd trailed by seven at halfway last year and he very nearly won. He was matched at a low of 1.51/2 when he birdied the final hole to lead by a stroke, having been matched at a high of 330.0329/1, but the eventual winner, Kim, birdied 16 and 17 to pip him.
Although we hadn't seen a winner form off the pace for some time, Swafford wasn't the first...
Justin Leonard was eight back at halfway 16 years ago and a number of winners have been four, five, six and seven back with two rounds to go. David Duval in 1999, trailed by seven before he shot 59 to win by a stroke so you clearly can come from behind with a wet sail.
If you're looking to trade in-running, this is a great event in which to lay odds-on shots in-running.
Pre-event 1000.0999/1 shot, Lee Hodges, who was tied for the lead with a round to go before eventually finishing tied for third last year, was matched at 1.9420/21 and he's far from the first to trade below even money and get beat...
In 13 of the last 16 renewals we've seen at least one player trade at odds-on without winning and in two of the last four renewals there have been two players trade at odds-on before losing - Scottie Scheffler (1.9210/11) and Abraham Ancer (1.715/7) in 2020 and Phil Mickelson (1.695/7) and Adam Hadwin (1.081/12) in 2019.
It's also worth mentioning that two of the last five winners, Landry and Rahm, both traded at very low odds before looking like they might get beat.
Landry traded at as low as 1.031/33 when he shot six clear of the field with three birdies in-a-row after the turn in 2020 but the pick-ups were immediately followed by three straight drops and Rahm, in 2018, was matched for more than 30k at 1.061/18 in regulation play and he hit a low of 1.051/20 before Landry birdied the 72nd hole to take the event to extra time.
Year after year players trade at odds-on and get beat or in the case of Landry and Rahm, come close to throwing it away, so it's a great tournament to trade on a Sunday.
I'll be back again tomorrow with a look at the market leaders, together with the reasoning behind any pre-event picks but in the meantime, my Abu Dhabi Championship preview can be viewed here.
Market Leaders
With course form figures reading 34-1-6-14 and current form figures reading 2-1-4-1-1, Jon Rahm is the very obvious and correct favourite.
Having struggled with the flatstick for most of 2022 (ranked 46th for Putting Average and 29th for Strokes Gained putting in this event when tied 14th), something clicked on the greens in late summer, and he hasn't looked back.
Rahm didn't putt especially well at the CJ Cup three starts ago but his PA rankings for his last six starts read 3-52-2-19-1-1 and his SGP rankings read 1-5-4-29-2-1.
Given this is essentially a putting contest, if the Spaniard rolls his rock like he's been doing lately he's almost certain to contend and even though this a great event for outsiders, odds of around 13/2 aren't too short.
Patrick Cantlay traded at less than 3/1 in-running when making the first of three appearances in the event in 2019 (finished ninth) and having been matched at odds-on during round two 12 months ago (finished ninth again) and as low as 1.51/2 in 2021 when finishing second, he'll feel like this is a tournament he should have bagged already.
Having finished second in the Phoenix Open last year in his first appearance and with Shriners Childrens Open figures reading 1-2-2-8-2, the world number five is clearly suited to desert golf and commands plenty of respect but he was a little disappointing in the Sentry Tournament of Champions two weeks ago when a never in-contention tied 16th.
World number two, Scottie Scheffler, traded at odds-on here on debut in 2020 when finishing third but in his two subsequent starts he's been disappointing - missing the cut in 2021 and finishing 25th a year later.
Scheffler's putting would be a concern and I was far more tempted by Tony Finau who looks fairly priced at around 16/1 given he has event figures reading MC-14-4-40 and that he's won three of his last eight.
Finau's tied seventh in the Sentry two weeks ago was a nice pipe opener and at 33, he appears to be at the peak of his powers.
Selection
Having backed him before the off prior to each of his last two wins, at the DP World Tour Championship and the Sentry Tournament of Champions, I couldn't leave out the bang-in-form Jon Rahm and despite the strength of the field and the poor record of fancied runners in the event, I was happy to take 8.07/1.
In addition to Rahm, I've backed a couple of outsiders detailed in the Find Me a 100 Winner column which you can find here.
Selection:
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