Abu Dhabi Championship: Links lovers set to shine on Yas Island

• Former winners to dominate the market

• Hero Cup outing almost certainly a big plus

• Links form the key to success

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Tournament History

The 18th edition of the Abu Dhabi Championship is the first of two consecutive Rolex Series events, with the Dubai Desert Classic next on the schedule.

After 16 years in-a-row at the Abu Dhabi Golf Club (the venue for last week's inaugural Hero Cup), the tournament moved to a brand-new venue 12 months ago - the Yas Links on Yas Island - and that's where we return this time around.

Without the likes of Rory McIlroy, Viktor Hovland and Collin Morikawa, who were all in attendance last year, the tournament isn't as strong as it was 12 months ago but it's still a decent field and a tournament to look forward to.

Venue

Yas Links, Yas Island, Abu Dhabi.

Course Details

Par 72 -7,425 yards
Stroke Average in 2022 - 72.83

Described as the first true links course in the UAE and designed by Kyle Philips, the man responsible for Kingsbarns, Yas Links only opened in March 2010.

The Paspalum grass Par 72 Championship Links course, which has rolling hills and seashore green was built on a perfectly flat piece of land and according to the designer, they "were able to significantly enhance and expand the existing shoreline and use the dredged sand to build an interesting variety of dune formations."

It's a spectacular course with a fabulous finish and this is what Philips told Nick Gordon about the 18th back in 2016.

"My favourite hole here is the par five 18th, a true crescendo as one can attempt to cut the corner and reach the green in two. This is one of the most dramatic finishing holes I have designed."

I'm not sure Tyrrell Hatton is quite so keen on the hole. He made a seven on the hole on Friday and a nine on Saturday last year!

According to Corey Finn, the Golf Course Manager.

"It's a traditional links. So if it doesn't blow like it does in Scotland, players will go quite low but, if it shows its teeth with the wind, then the guys will struggle. I think that's pretty cool. If you get it on the wrong side it'll run away and you'll be in troublesome areas."

The wind did blow last year, especially in round two, and the winner, Thomas Pieters, was the only player in the field to get finish in double-digits below par.

Here's a tweet fired out by the DP World Tour last year that gives us a good look at the front-nine.

Every hole of the front nine at @YasLinksGC #ADGolfChamps | #RolexSeries pic.twitter.com/SRH4hFJ85f

? DP World Tour (@DPWorldTour) January 20, 2022

Weather Forecast

TV Coverage

Live on Sky Sports all four days, starting at 3:30 on Thursday morning in the UK.

Last Seven Winners with Pre-event Exchange Prices

2022 - Thomas Pieters -10 46.045/1
2021 - Tyrrell Hatton -18 14.527/2
2020 - Lee Westwood -19 140.0139/1
2019 - Shane Lowry -18 90.089/1
2018 - Tommy Fleetwood -22 34.033/1
2017 - Tommy Fleetwood -17 80.079/1
2016 - Rickie Fowler -16 21.020/1

What Will it Take to Win the Abu Dhabi Championship?

I'm not sure we give the stats from last year too much credence but for the record, the winner, Thomas Pieters, ranked highly for almost every stat apart from the putting stats.

He ranked second for Strokes Gained Off the Tee, first for STG Tee to Green, ninth for Greens In Regulation and first for Scrambling so in windy conditions his neat and tidy game paid dividends but he only ranked 59th for Putting Average and 30th Strokes Gained Putting.

Links form stood up well at the old venue for this event, as well as the Emirates (the course used for next week's Dubai Desert Classic) and at Doha, the Qatar Masters' host course, so look to form in the region as well as links form in the UK.

Look to the Scottish Open, the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship and of course, the Open Championship for evidence of links form as what little evidence we have suggests Yas really is a genuine links track.

Several fine links players contended 12 months ago, and the Yas Links also hosted an annual pro-am event called the Abu Dhabi Invitational which was won by the likes of Darren Clarke, Steven Gallacher, Retief Goosen and Lee Westwood, who are all renowned links exponents.

Is There an Angle In?

One further angle in could be to look at results of tournaments played at some of Philips' other designs.

In addition to the Grove, which hosted the British Masters in 2016, won by Alex Noren, and the WGC- American Express in 2006, won by Tiger Woods, and Kingsbarns, which is one of the three courses used in rotation at the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, Kyle Philips, is also responsible for four other tracks used on the DP World Tour...

Philips designed the Dundonald Links, which hosted the Scottish Open in 2017, the PGA Sweden National, which held the 2014 and 2015 editions of what is now the Scandinavian Mixed (formerly the Nordea Masters), Bernardus, which has hosted the last two editions of the Dutch Open, and he also designed Verdura Golf and Spa, which hosted all four editions of the now defunct Sicily Open between 2011 and 2018.

Playing last week's Hero Cup should prove to be highly beneficial. The chance to have knocked some rust off just down the road in a reasonably relaxed competition should see previous event winners, Thomas Pieters, Tommy Fleetwood, Shane Lowry and Tyrrell Hatton, hit the ground running.

Outsiders Fare Well in Abu Dhabi

Last year's winner, Pieters, was matched at 50.049/1 before the off and Hatton was a well-backed 14/1 chance in 2021 but the two previous winners were both matched at a triple-figure price.

Lee Westwood was a 140.0139/1 chance in 2020 and although he was generally a 90.089/1 chance, Shane Lowry was matched at 100.099/1 before the off four years ago.

Tommy Fleetwood was generally a 34.033/1 chance when successfully defending in 2018 - a year after winning at 80.079/1 - and Rickie Fowler was a well-fancied 20/1 shot in 2016 but the four winners before him were all huge outsiders.

Gary Stal was matched at 320.0319/1 before the 2015 edition and Pablo Larrazabal, Jamie Donaldson and Robert Rock were all matched at a triple-figure price so don't be afraid to back an outsider or two this week.

Previous Rolex Series winners command respect

As this is the first Rolex Series event of the year, I've listed all the previous series winners to date below. The Scottish Open apart, which is a bit of an outsider's event, they tend to go to fancied players.

After four different high-class Americans won four of five Rolex Series events, the well-fancied pair of Shane Lowry and Jon Rahm, have won the last two.

The last six Rolex Series winners are all Ryder Cuppers and Billy Horschel won the BMW PGA Championship in 2021 when inspired by being overlooked for a place on the 2021 US Team.

The cream tends to rise to the top.

Rolex Series Winners

BMW PGA Championship 2017 - Alex Noren 22.021/1 1/2
Open de France 2017 - Tommy Fleetwood 25.024/1
Irish Open 2017 - Jon Rahm 18.017/1 1/3
Scottish Open 2017 - Rafa Cabrera-Bello 65.064/1
Italian Open 2017 - Tyrrell Hatton 20.019/1
Turkish Airlines Open 2017 - Justin Rose 9.28/1 1/2
Nedbank Golf Challenge 2017 - Branden Grace 18.017/1
DP World Championship 2017 - Jon Rahm 13.012/1 2/3
BMW PGA Championship 2018 - Francesco Molinari 22.021/1
Italian Open 2018 - Thorbjorn Olesen 130.0129/1
Open de France 2018 - Alex Noren 19.537/2 2/2
Irish Open 2018 - Russell Knox 27.026/1
Scottish Open 2018 - Brandon Stone 1000.0999/1
Turkish Airlines Open 2018 - Justin Rose 5.85/1 2/2
Nedbank Golf Challenge 2018 - Lee Westwood 55.054/1
DP World Championship 2018 - Danny Willett 150.0149/1 1/2
Abu Dhabi Championship 2019 - Shane Lowry 90.089/1
Irish Open 2019 - Jon Rahm 10.09/1 3/3
Scottish Open 2019 - Bernd Wiesberger 46.045/1
BMW PGA Championship 2019 - Danny Willett 80.079/1 2/2
Italian Open 2019 - Bernd Wiesberger 55.054/1 2/2
Turkish Airlines Open 2019 - Tyrrell Hatton 20.019/1 2/2
Nedbank Golf Challenge 2019 - Tommy Fleetwood 20.019/1 2/2
DP World Championship 2019 - Jon Rahm 8.07/1 4/4
Abu Dhabi Championship 2020 - Lee Westwood 140.0139/1 2/2
Scottish Open 2020 - Aaron Rai 110.0109/1
BMW PGA Championship 2019 - Tyrrell Hatton 22.021/1 3/3
DP World Championship 2019 - Matthew Fitzpatrick 22.021/1
Abu Dhabi Championship 2021 - Tyrrell Hatton 14.527/2 4/4
Scottish Open 2021 - Min Woo Lee 330.0329/1
BMW PGA Championship 2021 - Billy Horschel 36.035/1
DP World Championship 2021- Collin Morikawa 11.010/1
Abu Dhabi Championship 2022 - Thomas Pieters 46.045/1
Dubai Desert Classic 2022 - Viktor Hovland 11.010/1
Scottish Open 2022 - Xander Schauffele 21.020/1
BMW PGA Championship -Shane Lowry 19.018/1 2/2
DP World Tour Championship - Jon Rahm 6.25/1 5/5

In-Play Tactics

Keeping an eye on the weather forecasts is essential here. If the wind lays down for four days the scoring will be very good and we need to be concentrating on the frontrunners but that's highly unlikely and there was a huge draw bias last year.

On a fairly benign first day, Scott Jamieson shot a bogey-free nine-under-par 63 to lead Viktor Hovland by a stroke and the average score on day one was 71.36 but it was a completely different story on day two when the wind howled, and the average score was 75.55!

There was a draw bias of 1.29 in favour of the AM-PM starters and Jeff Winther was the only player to break 70 on Friday. Julien Brun and Jamie Donaldson also shot 69 but they came back to the course on Saturday morning to finish their rounds after play had been suspended on Friday because of the wind.

As an indication of how different the two days were, the longest drive on the second hole on Thursday was Sean Crocker's 334 yard smack. The furthest anyone hit it off the tee on Friday was 264 yards (David Law). And this is what Robert MacIntyre had to say about the conditions on day two.

"This is as tough as I've played in I think since Royal Portrush. I maybe got two holes in The Open like this, but I think I've played maybe three holes where it's not been off my right side and for me being a left-hander that's the hardest wind."

Market Leaders

The market is dominated by three former winners that all played in last week's Hero Cup - Tyrrell Hatton, Tommy Fleetwood, and Shane Lowry - with the first named currently just edging it.

I'm not sure we can take anything from the actual results at last week's Hero Cup - it was useful pipe opener to get the competitive juices flowing and nothing more but for the record, Hatton signed off the event with a comfortable 5&4 victory over Antoine Rozner and that can't be viewed as a negative.

Given how prolific he was (winning seven times between October 2016 and January 2021) it's perhaps a little surprising that his victory in this event two years ago is his last.

He was matched at a low of 2.3211/8 in his last stroke play event - the DP World Tour Championship - where he eventually finished runner-up to the red-hot Jon Rahm having been tied for the lead at halfway and a repeat of that performance will probably see him win here.

All his stats were superb around the Earth Course in November and but for a poor back nine on Saturday he may well have beaten Rahm. And but for his poor play on the par five 18th here 12 months ago he may well have defended his title.

Hatton was beaten by three in a tie for sixth, but he dropped six shots at the finishing hole. Bookended by birdie fours on Thursday and Sunday, Hatton made a double-bogey seven on Friday and a quadruple-bogey nine there on Saturday!

Last week's GB&I captain, Tommy Fleetwood, is next up and he makes no appeal at around the 14/1 mark.

Since getting off the mark on the DP World Tour ten years ago, edging out Stephen Gallacher and Ricardo Gonzales in extra time in the final edition of the Johnnie Walker Championship at Gleneagles, when he'd been tied for the lead after three rounds, the likably Englishman has won five times but every one of his subsequent wins have come from off the pace.

He's always a player to consider in running when on the fringes of contention through 54 holes (he's won from five and six strokes adrift at fancy prices) but he's nearly always too short before the off.

This looks like the perfect venue for Fleetwood and having won the title back-to-back in 2017 and 2018, he's bidding for a hattrick of wins in the event, but he was only 48th here 12 months ago.

I didn't watch much of the Hero Cup last week but whenever I saw the 2019 winner, Shane Lowry, he appeared to be struggling.

Lowry's not been at his best since winning the BMW PGA Championship, producing form figures reading MC-23-23 but he'll be keen to avenge last year's poor final round.

The 2019 Open winner sat tied for second and just a stroke off the lead with a round to go but having begun the day as the 5/2 favourite, he opened up round four with a triple-bogey seven at the first and eventually finished 12th.

Selections

I was happy enough to take a small chance on Tyrrell Hatton and I'm in complete agreement with Matt Cooper regarding Victor Perez.

With form in the region and wins in the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship and at the Kyle Philips designed Bernardus (last year's Dutch Open), he was already on the radar before last week's undefeated stint in the Hero Cup.

Having sat fourth after round one and tenth after two rounds, trailing by just three strokes, Perez lost his way over the weekend 12 months ago eventually finishing tied for 58th but he has at least shown an aptitude for the venue.

Selections:
Tyrrell Hatton @ 13.525/2
Victor Perez @ 55.054/1

*You can follow me on Twitter @SteveThePunter