Abu Dhabi Championship: The Punter's Preview

• Hot putting and previous links form key

• Hatton and Hojgaard two to look out for

• Read my World Wide Technology Championship preview here

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Tournament History

The 19^th edition of the Abu Dhabi Championship is also the fourth of five Rolex Series events, and the first of two playoff events staged this year.

It's a limited field event for the top 70 players in the Race to Dubai Standings that elect to play.

Billy Horschel, who's ranks fourth, Ludvig Aberg (16^th) and Jon Rahm (34^th), are the most notable absentees at the time of writing and Sean Crocker, who ranks 76^th, is the last man in.

At the conclusion of the Abu Dhabi Championship, the top 50 in the rankings will head to Dubai for the season finale - the DP World Tour Championship - next week.

The first 16 editions of the event were staged at the Abu Dhabi Golf Club but this is the third year in-a-row that the event will be staged at Kyle Philips- designed Yas Links.

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Venue

Yas Links, Yas Island, Abu Dhabi

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Course Details

Par 72 -7,425 yards
Stroke Average in 2023 - 71.01

Described as the first true links course in the UAE and designed by Kyle Philips, the man responsible for Kingsbarns, Yas Links opened as recently as March 2010.

The Paspalum grass Par 72 Championship Links course, which has rolling hills and seashore greens was built on a perfectly flat piece of land and according to the designer, they "were able to significantly enhance and expand the existing shoreline and use the dredged sand to build an interesting variety of dune formations."

It's a spectacular course with a fabulous finish and this is what Philips told Nick Gordon about the 18^th back in 2016.

"My favourite hole here is the par five 18th, a true crescendo as one can attempt to cut the corner and reach the green in two. This is one of the most dramatic finishing holes I have designed."

According to Corey Finn, the Golf Course Manager.

"It's a traditional links. So, if it doesn't blow like it does in Scotland, players will go quite low but, if it shows its teeth with the wind, then the guys will struggle. I think that's pretty cool. If you get it on the wrong side, it'll run away and you'll be in troublesome areas."

The wind did blow in 2022, especially in round two, and the winner, Thomas Pieters, was the only player in the field to finish in double-digits below par but it was a different story in kinder conditions in January last year when Victor Perez emerged victorious in 18-under-par.

Here's a tweet fired out by the DP World Tour before the inaugural edition here that gives us a good look at the front-nine.

Every hole of the front nine at @YasLinksGC #ADGolfChamps | #RolexSeries pic.twitter.com/SRH4hFJ85f

-- DP World Tour (@DPWorldTour) January 20, 2022

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Weather Forecast

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TV Coverage

Live on Sky Sports all four days, starting at 3:30 on Thursday

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Last Eight Winners with Pre-event Exchange Prices

2023 - Victor Perez -18 44.043/1
2022 - Thomas Pieters -10 46.045/1
2021 - Tyrrell Hatton -18 14.5
2020 - Lee Westwood -19 140.0139/1
2019 - Shane Lowry -18 90.089/1
2018 - Tommy Fleetwood -22 34.033/1
2017 - Tommy Fleetwood -17 80.079/1
2016 - Rickie Fowler -16 21.020/1

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What Will it Take to Win the Abu Dhabi Championship?

It's a bit of a confusing picture when looking at the stats.

The first four home all ranked inside the top-nine for Driving Distance last year but in 2022, the first four home ranked 23^rd, 62, 65^th and 46^th for DD and although the two course winners ranked 10^th and 11^th for Driving Accuracy, the four players below Pieters inside the top-five ranked 54^th, 67^th, 31^st and 54^th for DA and the five players directly below Perez ranked 53^rd, 59^th,19^th, 24^th and 41^st.

Perez ranked 20^th for Greens In Regulation and Pieters ninth so that isn't a key stat either and the two area to concentrate on appear to on and around the green.

Although Perez only ranked 19^th for Scrambling, the top four in the Scrambling rankings all finished inside the top seven and ties and nobody got up-and-down more often than the winner, Pieters, in 2022.

Pieters ranked only 59^th for Putting Average but Shubhankar Sharma and Rafa Cabrera Bello, who finished tied for second, ranked first and ninth for PA and the first six home last year ranked second, 11^th, first, tenth, third and 17^th for PA.

Links form stood up well at the old venue for this event, as well as at the Emirates, home of the Dubai Desert Classic, and at Doha, the Qatar Masters' host course, and it also comes to the form whenever we visit Ras Al Khaimah, so look to form in the region as well as links form in the UK.

Look to the Scottish Open, the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship and of course, the Open Championship for evidence of links form, as what little evidence we have suggests Yas really is a genuine links track.

The Yas Links also hosted an annual pro-am event called the Abu Dhabi Invitational which was won by the likes of Darren Clarke, Steven Gallacher, Retief Goosen and Lee Westwood, who are all renowned links exponents.

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Is There an Angle In?

Victor Perez's victory here was his third on the DP World Tour and his third at Kyle Philips links venue so that's a very obvious place to start.

In addition to the Grove, which hosted the British Masters in 2016, won by Alex Noren, and the WGC- American Express in 2006, won by Tiger Woods, and Kingsbarns, which is one of the three courses used in rotation at the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, Kyle Philips, is also responsible for four other tracks used on the DP World Tour...

Philips designed the Dundonald Links, which hosted the Scottish Open in 2017, the PGA Sweden National, which held the 2014 and 2015 editions of what is now the Scandinavian Mixed (formerly the Nordea Masters), Bernardus, which has hosted the Dutch Open between 2021 and 2023, and he also designed Verdura Golf and Spa, which hosted all four editions of the now defunct Sicily Open between 2011 and 2018.

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Is There an Identikit Winner?

Outsiders have fared well in Abu Dhabi over the years.

Although he went off at 44.043/1 Perez was well backed last year, having originally opened at 55.054/1, and the 2022 winner here, Pieters, was matched at 50.049/1 before the off.

Tyrrell Hatton was a well-backed 14/115.00 chance in 2021, but the two previous winners were both matched at a triple-figure price.

Lee Westwood was a 140.0139/1 chance in 2020 and although he was generally a 90.089/1 chance, Shane Lowry was matched at 100.099/1 before the off five years ago.

Tommy Fleetwood was generally a 34.033/1 chance when successfully defending in 2018 - a year after winning at 80.079/1 - and Rickie Fowler was a well-fancied 20/121.00 shot in 2016 but the four winners before him were all huge outsiders.

Gary Stal was matched at 320.0319/1 before the 2015 edition and Pablo Larrazabal, Jamie Donaldson and Robert Rock were all matched at a triple-figure price.

Rolex Series events tend to go to one of the fancied runners but don't be afraid to back an outsider or two in this one.

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Winner's Position and Exchange Price Pre-Round Four

2023 - Victor Perez - tied fourth, trailing by one 11.010/1
2022 - Thomas Pieters - tied second, trailing by one 4.1

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In-Play Tactics

Victor Perz triple-bogeyed the seventh hole in round one and he was matched in-running at as high as 230.0229/1 last year.

He was trailing by seven in a tie for 44^th after the opening round but a sensational 65 on Friday saw him climb up into a tie for second and Pieters was in the van throughout in 2022.

The Belgian was always inside the top six and he was never more than two strokes adrift in-between rounds. And that was despite of the poor weather.

Keeping an eye on the forecasts is essential here. If the wind lays down for four days, the scoring will always be very good, and we need to be concentrating on the frontrunners but that's highly unlikely and there was a huge draw bias in 2022.

On a fairly benign first day, Scott Jamieson shot a bogey-free nine-under-par 63 to lead Viktor Hovland by a stroke and the average score on day one was 71.36 but it was a completely different story on day two when the wind howled, and the average score was 75.55!

There was a draw bias of 1.29 in favour of the AM-PM starters and Jeff Winther was the only player to break 70 on Friday.

Julien Brun and Jamie Donaldson also shot 69 but they came back to the course on Saturday morning to finish their rounds off after play had been suspended on Friday because of the wind.

As an indication of how different the two days were, the longest drive on the second hole on Thursday was Sean Crocker's 334-yard smack. The furthest anyone hit it off the tee on Friday was 264 yards (David Law). And this is what Robert MacIntyre had to say about the conditions on day two.

"This is as tough as I've played in I think since Royal Portrush. I maybe got two holes in The Open like this, but I think I've played maybe three holes where it's not been off my right side and for me being a left-hander that's the hardest wind."

With the wind far less punishing, the draw bias last year was only 0.44 in favour of the PM-AM side of the draw.

With a small field of just 70, it may not be such a big deal this time around but it's something to consider.

If you're betting in running, bear in mind that holes 15, 16 and 17 are all quite tricky but the par five finishing hole offers up a great chance to score in reasonable conditions.

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Suggested Selections

I'm away until Thursday so I won't get a chance to look at the market leaders or confirm any selections, but Matt Cooper will be back later in the week with his each-way fancies for this event and Dave Tindall is standing in for me with the Find Me a 100 Winner column.

Look out for both of those two pieces but in the meantime, two players that I'll be looking to side with are Tyrrell Hatton and Nicolai Hojgaard.

Last year's winner, Victor Perez, won the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship back in 2019 and England's Tyrrell Hatton won that event for a third time last month.

In two previous visits here he's finished sixth and seventh and he'll feel he really should have finished higher on debut back in 2022 given he sat fourth after round one.

Hatton finished strongly with a 65 on Sunday to climb from 33^rd to seventh last year and after falling away in round two in 2022, he rallied from outside the top 20 with a round to go to finish sixth.

We haven't seen Hatton since his victory in Scotland, but he'll be much fresher than he was on his last two visits here. On both occasions he kicked off the year here in January, two months after playing in the Dubai World Championship.

This place clearly suits him, and another top finish looks assured.

In contrast to Hatton, after a largely disappointing season, Nicolai Hojgaard has been grafting to make it to Abu Dhabi and his place in the line up was only assured when he posted a six-under 66 on Sunday in Korea to climb from 78^th to 67^th in the Standings in the last counting event.

His ninth-place finish in Korea was his third week in-a-row on the road following top 20 finishes at the Open de France and the Andalucía Masters and last week's rest will have done him the world of good.

He needs a good week to get into the top 50 to defend his title in Dubai next week but he has the game to do much more than just qualify and it would be no surprise to see him improve on last year's 10^th place finish on debut.

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Read my World Wide Technolgy Championship preview here

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*You can follow me on Twitter @SteveThePunter

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