The Punter's Open De-brief: Fantastic Fox finishes in style to secure first Major

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Burns and Young go odds-on before being caught by Fox

09:50 - July 20, 2026

The 54-hole leader of the 154^th Open Championship, Sam Burns, was matched at lowest odds of 1.814/5 on the Betfair Exchange when he birdied the second hole on Sunday but that was as good as it got for the pre-event 60.059/1 chance.

A run of three bogeys in-a-row from the fourth put him firmly behind the eight ball and he finished with 12 straight pars to post a disappointing two-over-par 72 to end the week in solo third, beaten by two.

The world number one and defending champion, Scottie Scheffler, put in a Sunday charge before a scruffy finish saw him come up short and Si Woo Kim was matched at a low of 2.021/1 but he too finished the event poorly, playing the back nine in 40.

It was the man I backed after round one, Cam Young, that looked the most likely winner for much of the afternoon.

Trailing the leader, Burns, by seven, and teeing off two hours and 15 minutes before the final pairing of Burns and Ryan Fox, Young's intent was immediate.

After a terrible finish to his third round, that appeared to have done for his chance, he birdied the first three holes of his fourth round, going on to post a front nine score of 28.

He picked up another two birdies at the par fives on the back nine to get to seven-under for the day and 10-under-par for the tournament before he drove in to a fairway bunker on the 72^nd hole, which led to a bogey five.

With everyone treading water as the wind picked up, despite the bogey five at 18, it looked highly likely that Young's 64, which was two shots better than anyone else could muster, was going to be enough and he was matched in-running at as short as 1.4840/85.

Playing alongside Burns, Fox played his first nine in level-par and when he missed a six-footer for par on 11 it looked like his race was run and he was matched in excess of 20/121.00 on the Betfair Exchange but a birdie at the 13^th changed his direction of travel in no uncertain terms.

Fox followed the birdie at 13 with a brilliant up-and-down for birdie at the par five 14^th and his bogey at the tough par three 15^th, after his tee-shot had finished in an awful spot in the bunker, was a great save in the end.

The charge continued when he sunk a 10-footer for birdie on the 16^th to go odds-on but after he'd missed his birdie chance at 17 from a similar distance, Young went back to odds-on.

The long par four 18^th hole was the toughest encountered during the week, averaging 4.41 for the week, and Fox had played it in one-over par over the first three days but with the pressure turned up to max, he nailed his drive 330 yards down the tight fairway and the market switched favourites again.

Riding the wave of momentum, Fox stuck his approach to 11 feet before pouring in his fourth birdie in six holes to leave Young backers stunned.

Having arrived at Royal Portrush in great form 12 months ago, following victories in the Myrtle Beach Classic and the Canadian Open, Fox had been a very well backed 60.059/1 chance before he missed the cut and he was one of my Find Me a 100 Winner fancies two years ago at 230.0229/1, so his victory at Royal Birkdale wasn't completely unexpected.

Fox did not fit stats profile

The 39-year-old New Zealander went against the grain somewhat though given he only ranked 57^th in the Official World Rankings (56 of the last 57 majors had been won by someone inside the world's top 50) and he hadn't won in more than 12 months.

His form figures reading 27-8-23-66-30 weren't brilliant but his 30^th place in Scotland the week before proved a great warm up.

As highlighted yesterday, he was matched at as high as 500.0499/1 in running on the Betfair Exchange before his sensational third round 62 and he was trading at between 100/1101.00 and 150/1151.00 on the High Street last Monday but once again the Betfair Exchange proved the place to place your bets.

Fox was generally a 270.0269/1 chance on Tuesday and Wednesday, hitting a high of 300.0299/1.

Ryan Fox!

Fox was T-52nd after 36 holes. It's the largest 36-hole comeback by position to win a men's major in history.

-- Justin Ray (@JustinRayGolf) July 19, 2026

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Fox fires 62 to join the party

09:30 - July 19, 2026

With the likes of Scottie Scheffler, Cam Young, Bryson DeChambeau, Jon Rahm, Tommy Fleetwood and Robert MacIntyre all failing to post any better than a one-under-par 69 on Saturday, the main contenders at halfway have all drifted in the Open Championship market and it's the 29-year-old American, Sam Burns, that now leads by two with 18 to play.

Here's the 54-hole leaderboard with prices to back on the Betfair Exchange at 9:20.

Sam Burns -10 2.568/5
Si Woo Kim -8 6.411/2
Ryan Fox -8 10.09/1
Ryan Gerard -7 19.018/1
Lucas Herbert -7 28.027/1
Bryson DeChambeau -6 18.017/1
Ludvig Aberg -6 16.015/1
Jackson Suber -6 55.054/1
Tommy Fleetwood -5 26.025/1
Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen -5 140.0139/1
Scottie Scheffler -4 36.035/1
Jon Rahm -4 75.074/1
Xander Schauffele -4 100.099/1
Shane Lowry -4 140.0139/1
Hideki Matsuyama -4 160.0159/1
-4 and 170.0169/1 bar

Pre-event 60.059/1 chance, Sam Burns, must have thought a weekend off was far more likely than a weekend in contention when he bogeyed his last three holes on Thursday to post a three-over-par 73.

Sitting tied for 106^th after round one and trailing the leader, Jackson Suber, by eight, he was matched at as high as 500.0499/1 on the Betfair Exchange but rounds of 62 and 65 (the lowest total across any two rounds in men's major championship history) have seen him surge to the front with 18 to play.

Could a newborn and a big birthday have inspired Burns?

With two significant life events occurring and a recent close call in a major, the only thing missing form Burn's profile is a recent win.

Burns' second child, Belle, was born on 3 July, 11 days early, and if she'd have been late, he probably wouldn't have even made it across for the Open. Likely, he'd have stayed at home instead to celebrate the birth as well as his 30^th upcoming birthday (Thursday 23 July).

It's not unusual to see a player's form improve around a significant life event like a milestone birthday or the birth of a child and given the average age of the Open winners this century is 30.4, the only thing missing for Burns, and it's quite an important one, is a recent win.

He came close at the US Open last month, but he hasn't won on the PGA Tour since he defeated yesterday's huge disappointment, Cam Young, in the final edition of the WGC Match Play three years ago and his last stroke play victory was from off the pace at the Charles Schwab Challenge more than four years ago.

He came close to winning on the PGA Tour last year, eventually losing in a playoff at the Canadian Open to today's playing partner, Ryan Fox, who climbed 50 places up into a tie for second when he shot the week's third 62 yesterday.

Burns' record when leading isn't great

Burns converted a one-stroke lead on the Korn Ferry Tour back in 2018 and he won the Valspar Championship for the first time in 2021 having been tied for the lead with a round to go but on the four occasions that he's held a clear advantage on the PGA Tour he's failed to convert.

Looking at Open history at Royal Birkdale, although five of the 10 winners have held a clear lead through 54 holes, none of them have led by two, and two stroke leaders haven't got a brilliant record at the Open (see Justin Ray's tweet below).

Here's where the previous 10 Open winners at Royal Birkdale sat after round three

1954 - Peter Thomson - tied for the lead
1961 - Arnold Palmer -led by a stroke
1965 - Peter Thomson - led by a stroke
1971 - Lee Trevino - led by a stroke
1976 - Johnny Miller - second, trailing by two
1983 - Tom Watson -led by a stroke
1991 - Ian Baker-Finch - tied for the lead with Mark O'Meara
1998 - Mark O'Meara - tied for second with Jim Furyk and Jesper Parnevik, trailing by two
2008 - Padraig Harrington - tied for second with K.J Choi, trailing by two
2017 - Jordan Spieth -led by three

Over the last 100 years, there are 19 other instances of a player leading by exactly 2 entering the final round of The Open. 7 of them went on to win (37%).

-- Justin Ray (@JustinRayGolf) July 18, 2026

All things considered, I want to be against Burns, and I was happy to lay him at 2.546/4.

Taking on Burns looks the easiest way to play the event now as it's extremely hard to predict who might benefit from a Burns slip.

Pair chanced from off the pace

 

Si Woo Kim hasn't won in more than three years and Ryan Fox needs to back up yesterday's 62.

I like Fox, and he was one of my Find Me a 100 Winner picks in the Open last year after he'd beaten Burns in Canada but it's never easy to back up a low round (although Burns managed it yesterday!) so although the stats suggest you need to be up with the pace with a round to go in an Open, it wouldn't be a big surprise to see that trend broken this year.

Each of the last 11 Open Champions have been within 4 entering the final round

Each of the last 25 Open Champions have been in the top-10 entering the final round

-- Justin Ray (@JustinRayGolf) July 18, 2026

Bryson DeChambeau is more than capable of bridging the gap but the furore surrounding Friday's penalty is a huge distraction.

Scottie Scheffler has the class to just step up and fire a low one in on a Sunday and it's something he's done a few times this year without winning, most notably at the Masters when he bridged the gap between him and Rory McIlroy from seven to two.

The world number one and defending champ is a big price at 36.035/1.

Could this be set up perfectly for the local legend, Tommy Fleetwood, to finally win a major. He's far better from off the pace than he is on it and he won't lack for support.

He could go well at 25/126.00 but the two I like at really big prices are the 2023 winner, Xander Schauffele, who has shot improving rounds of 71-69-66 to climb up in to a tie for 11^th and I've also chanced Hideki Matsuyama at a massive price.

Matsuyama won the 2017 Phoenix Open having trailed by four through 54 holes and he lost in a playoff at the FedEx St Jude in 2021 having trailed by nine but his most impressive off the pace effort was at Riviera two years ago when he won the Genesis Invitational easily by three strokes having trailed by six through three rounds.

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Course records and Bryson penalty

09:00 - July 18, 2026

Bryson DeChambeau was matched at as low as 6.25/1 to win the Open Championship when he birdied the last two holes of his second round at Royal Birkdale yesterday to get to within a stroke of the clubhouse leader, Lucas Herbert, who earlier in the day had missed this putt on the 18^th from five feet to become the first man in history to shoot 61 in a major championship.

Millimetres from men's major history.

An incredible card of 62 from clubhouse leader Lucas Herbert. pic.twitter.com/IlREzoAMfD

-- The Open (@TheOpen) July 17, 2026

Not long after Herbert had settled for becoming just the fifth man to shoot 62 in a major championship, Sam Burns birdied the last three holes to become the sixth but both rounds were incredible given Eric Cole, who shot 64, was the only other man in the field to better a four-under-par 66 in round two.

The two course record 62s looked like being the big story on day two but attention was soon shifted to a two-shot penalty awarded to DeChambeau for improving his lie on the par four fifth that saw him go from second to tied fifth.

McGinley - "For me, it's a clear breach"

Chamblee - "He danced all over it... He did everything but lay down behind it, or take a weed-whacker to the tall grass... I don't really know what Bryson was arguing about" https://t.co/hmR8aSFpZ1

-- Pat McCarry (@patmccarry) July 17, 2026

Whether it's harsh of fair is debatable but it's seen him drift out from 7/18.00 to 12/113.00 and it's changed the shape of the market considerably.

World No.1 heads the market at halfway

Here's the latest state of play with two rounds to play at 8:50, together with Betfair Exchange prices.

Lucas Herbert -8 13.012/1
Cameron Young -6 8.415/2
Ryan Gerard -6 22.021/1
Jackson Suber -6 40.039/1
Bryson DeChambeau -5 13.012/1
Sam Burns -5 17.533/2
Si Woo Kim -5 18.017/1
Scottie Scheffler -4 7.87/1
Tommy Fleetwood -4 14.013/1
Jon Rahm -4 16.531/2
Robert MacIntyre -4 25.024/1
Alex Fitzpatrick -4 42.041/1
Matt Wallace -4 70.069/1
Thomas Detry -4 100.099/1
Bud Cauley -4 110.0109/1
Francesco Molinari -4 140.0139/1
Tyrrell Hatton -3 40.039/1
Ludvig Aberg -3 44.043/1
Shane Lowry -3 55.054/1
-3 and 70.069/1 bar

In what is an incredibly open market at halfway, the defending champion, Scottie Scheffler, is the narrow favourite but the stats may be against the world number one.

As many as seven of the last nine Open winners have sat first or second at halfway, although in 10 previous editions at this year's venue, only two have been leading and two have been second after 36 holes.

Here's where the previous 10 Open winners at Royal Birkdale sat after round two

1954 - Peter Thomson - tied third, trailing by two
1961 - Arnold Palmer - tied third, trailing by one
1965 - Peter Thomson - tied for fifth, trailing by two
1971 - Lee Trevino -tied for the lead with Tony Jacklin
1976 - Johnny Miller - second, trailing by two
1983 - Tom Watson - tied second, trailing by one
1991 - Ian Baker-Finch - tied 29^th, trailing by five
1998 - Mark O'Meara - tied sixth, trailing by three
2008 - Padraig Harrington - tied fourth, trailing by three
2017 - Jordan Spieth -led by two

As highlighted above, the last winner here, Jordan Spieth, led by two at this stage and the first six Open winners at Royal Birkdale were all within two strokes of the lead at halfway but two of the last three winners trailed by three at this stage and Ian Baker-Finch was five back and tied for 29^th in 1991 so we can't rule out a charge from off the pace.

The Australian shot 64 on Saturday to share the 54-hole lead with Mark O'Meara before a 66 on Sunday saw him cruise to a two-stroke win.

At this stage of an Open Championship, the picture is usually pretty clear, and we're often reduced to pondering whether to back the clear leader and/or short priced favourite but with so many quality players siting inside the top-24, it's a very difficult tournament to call this year.

I couldn't put anyone off backing the leader at 12/113.00 on the Betfair Exchange but the one I like in the front-rank is Ryan Gerard at odds in excess of 20/121.00.

He didn't do a lot wrong when losing a playoff to JT Poston at the Memorial Tournament in June and playing alongside yesterday's in-play pick, Cam Young, in the penultimate pairing today, the 26-year-old looks a decent price at 22.021/1 given he's no bigger than 18/119.00 on the High Street.

In addition to a small wager on Gerard, I've also backed the recent Canadian Open winner, Bud Cauley, who trails by four in a tie for eighth.

That was the 36-year-old's first PGA Tour title so winning his second just a month later and in a major championship to boot is quite unlikely, but he put the event to bed with such authority in Canada that I'm happy to chance him modestly at a big price here.

Given four of the last 10 winners have been aged 35 and above, that six have been American and that eight had won earlier in the season, Cauley ticks quite a few trends boxes.

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21:50 - July 16, 2026

With the final three-ball not starting until 16:21 today, there are still a few groups out on the links at Royal Birkdale at the 154^th Open Championship, but none of them are close to threatening the leader, Jackson Suber, who played his last five holes in four-under-par to post a five-under-par 65.

On -4, Dan Brown and Sungjae Im, who played together this morning, are tied for second but it's bunched after that with nine players tied for fourth on -3 and as many as 38 players under-par.

The world number one and defending champion, Scottie Scheffler, who began the event this morning, was a 9/110.00 chance on the Betfair Exchange before the off, the biggest price he's been pre-tournament for some time, but after playing his first six holes in four-under-par he was matched at a low of 5/23.50.

It was a very impressive start after last week's missed cut in the Scottish Open, his first weekend off in almost four years, but that was as good as it got.

Scheffler bogeyed the par three seventh before parring every hole bar the par five 17^th, where he made a bogey six, and after the opening day at Royal Birkdale, he trails by three in a tie for 13^th.

A fast start is usually vital at an Open and only three of the last 20 Open winners have been outside the top 10 after round one but history tells us that this is a venue at which a slow start can be overcome.

Mark O'Meara is the only winner in the last 30 years not to be within five strokes of the lead after the opening round in an Open Championship and that happened here 28 years ago.

Here's where the previous 10 Open winners at Royal Birkdale sat after round one

1954 - Peter Thomson - tied seventh, trailing by three
1961 - Arnold Palmer - tied seventh, trailing by two
1965 - Peter Thomson - tied 23^rd, trailing by six
1971 - Lee Trevino -tied for the lead with three others
1976 - Johnny Miller - tied 10^th, trailing by three
1983 - Tom Watson -tied second, trailing by three
1991 - Ian Baker-Finch - tied 33^rd, trailing by five
1998 - Mark O'Meara - tied 62^nd, trailing by seven
2008 - Padraig Harrington - tied 38^th, trailing by five
2017 - Jordan Spieth -tied for the lead with Matt Kuchar and Brooks Koepka

Although he very nearly threw the title away (Matt Kuchar was matched at just 1.351/3 on Sunday), Jordan Spieth won wire-to-wire here nine years ago, as did the 1971 winner, Lee Trevino, but Peter Thomson was six adrift and tied for 23^rd back in 1965 and the three course winners before Spieth all started slowly.

Padraig Harrington was five adrift and tied 38^th after the opening day, Mark O'Meara sat seven off the pace and tied for 62^nd in 1998 and back in 1991, Ian Baker-Finch sat tied for 33^rd and five back.

With the course playing softer than it did in the afternoon, and with the wind down, the morning starters enjoyed the better of it today, but the forecast suggests things will even out a bit tomorrow.

The greens will be watered over night and with the wind not due to pick up until the afternoon, the early starters have a chance to make a move.

The leader, Suber, kicks off his second round at 7:30 so he could steal a march on the field but the 25-year-old is yet to win and he's playing in his first Open.

I certainly don't want to be taking him on at 33/134.00 but I'm not interested in backing him at that price either.

My Find Me a 100 Winner pick, Kurt Kitayama, is positioned on -1 and he tees off before Suber and alongside Sepp Straka, who's another that could make a big move first thing.

Straka hasn't been playing well for a while now but he's a class act on his day. He's won four times on the PGA Tour, and he finished second in the 2023 Open, so I thought he was a fair price at 90.089/1 given he only trails by three and he starts early.

Keegan Bradley was trading at 200.0199/1 an hour or so ago but he's been backed into around 120.0119/1.

He's another that could make an early move tomorrow but the only other one I've backed in-running so far is the 2022 runner-up, Cameron Young, at 12/113.00 with the Sportsbook.

Young sits tied for fourth on -3 and he kicks off his second round at 9:58 so he should miss the worst of the weather.

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