3M Open: Post-Open Championship event a great tournament for outsiders says the Punter

---

3M Open tournament history

We're back to more ordinary fare this week following last week's 154^th Open Championship at Royal Birkdale - as the PGA Tour pitches up in Minnesota for the 3M Open. 

The 3M Open is a relatively new event and this will be just the eighth edition.

---

Venue

TPC Twin Cities, Blaine, Minnesota.

---

Course details

Par 71, 7, 431 yards

The Arnold Palmer designed TPC Twin Cities opened in 2000 and in addition to the first seven renewals of this event, it was also the host course for the 3M Championship on the Champions Tour between 2001 and 2018.

Prior to the inaugural edition of this event in 2019, it was said of the course that "the former sod farm had been transformed into a rolling landscape featuring 27 bodies of water, restoring several natural wetlands while framing holes with stands of mature oak and spruce trees."

Kenny Perry won three of the last five editions of the 3M Championship, winning the final edition after shooting 60 in round two. David Frost won the 2010 edition by seven strokes with a 25-under-par total and three of the last five winners amassed a winning score of at least 20-under-par. And Champions Tour events are staged over just three rounds!

Following Perry's final win here, and prior to the inaugural staging of this event, the course was altered somewhat and Minnesota native, Tom Lehman, who also helped with the initial design, was brought in to oversee a toughening up of the track. Mature trees were planted, fairways were narrowed slightly, new tees were constructed, and the course was lengthened by 354 yards in total. It certainly made a bit of difference although the inaugural event winner, Matthew Wolff, still got to 21-under-par.

Further changes were made prior to the 2020 edition. Fairways were narrowed on five holes, including the par five 18th, and bunkers on 10 holes were reworked but it made very little difference to the scoring.

The slightly bigger than average Bentgrass greens have been set at 12.5 on the Stimpmeter for each of the first six renewals and the bluegrass rough was as high as four inches last year but scoring was still super low.

Adam Svensson set a new course record (following the alterations) of 60 in round one and the eventual winner, Kurt Kitayama, matched that core on Friday.

---

Weather forecast

---

TV coverage

Live on Sky Sports all four days, starting at 12:45 UK time.

---

First six winners with Betfair Exchange prices

2019 - Matthew Wolff -21 220.0219/1
2020 - Michael Thompson -19 230.0229/1
2021 - Cameron Champ -15 120.0119/1
2022 - Tony Finau -17 13.012/1
2023 - Lee Hodges -24 100.099/1
2024 - Jhonnatan Vegas -17 130.0129/1
2025 - Kurt Kitayama -23 42.041/1 

---

A statistical look at the 3M Open

Here are the seven winners to date at TPC Twin Cities with traditional and Strokes Gained stats.

(Key: DD - Driving Distance; DA - Driving Accuracy; GIR - Greens in Regulation; SC - Scrambling; PA - Putting Average)

2019 - Matthew Wolff -21 DD 36, DA 31, GIR 6, SCR 62, PA 6
2020 - Michael Thompson -19 DD 46, DA 22, GIR 3, SCR 2, PA 20
2021 - Cameron Champ -15 DD 8, DA 49, GIR 22, SCR 6, PA 1
2022 - Tony Finau -17 DD 16, DA 6, GIR 3, SCR 1, PA 37
2023 - Lee Hodges -24 DD 25, DA 14, GIR 14, SCR 7, PA 2
2024 - Jhonnatan Vegas -17 DD 7, DA 12, GIR 7, SCR 69, PA 1
2025 - Kurt Kitayama -23 DD 13, DA 61, GIR 7, SCR 44, PA 7

(Key: SG-T - Strokes Gained: Off the Tee; SG-A - Strokes Gained: Approach; SG-ATG - Strokes Gained: Around the Tee; SG-T2G - Strokes Gained: Tee to Green; SG-P - Strokes Gained: Putting)

2019 - Matthew Wolff -21 - SG:T: 21, SG:A: 2, SG:ATG: 18, SG:T2G: 1, SG:P: 39
2020 - Michael Thompson -19 - SG:T: 51, SG:A: 4, SG:ATG: 53, SG:T2G: 17, SG:P: 1
2021 - Cameron Champ -15 - SG:T: 40, SG:A: 19, SG:ATG: 48, SG:T2G: 26, SG:P: 1
2022 - Tony Finau -17 - SG:T: 3, SG:A: 3, SG:ATG: 2, SG:T2G: 1, SG:P: 42
2023 - Lee Hodges -24 - SG:T: 29, SG:A: 1, SG:ATG: 31, SG:T2G: 1, SG:P: 4
2024 - Jhonnatan Vegas -17 - SG:T: 9, SG:A: 8, SG:ATG: 53, SG:T2G: 7, SG:P: 8
2025 - Kurt Kitayama -23 - SG:T: 23, SG:A: 2, SG:ATG:12, SG:T2G: 2, SG:P: 37

A good week with the putter has been important most years but overall, it looks like the two key stats to concentrate on are Greens In Regulation and Strokes Gained: Approach.

The 2021 winner, Cameron Champ, only ranked 22^nd for GIR and 19^th for SG: Approach but Louis Oosthuizen, who finished tied for second, ranked first and second for those two stats.

---

Look to the Rocket Classic for clues

A year after winning the inaugural edition of this event, beating Bryson DeChambeau and Collin Morikawa by a stroke, Matthew Wolff finished runner-up to DeChambeau in the second edition of the Rocket Classic, and Morikawa, who hasn't played in this event since he finished tied second in 2019, was beaten in a three-man playoff in his first appearance in the Rocket Classic in 2023.

Rickie Fowler, who shot 64 here to lead after round one five years ago when not playing well (finished T32), beat Morikawa in extra time three years ago and the third man in the playoff was Adam Hadwin, who has form figures in this event reading 4-6-38-MC-MC. He was also fourth in the Rocket Classic in 2020.

Max Homa, Cameron Tringale and Richy Werenski have contended strongly at both events, Brian Harman has finished inside the top ten at both venues, the 2022 runner-up here, Sungjae Im, and both Troy Merritt and Wyndham Clark, have top-eight finishes at both courses, Lucas Glover and Danny Willett have finished inside the top-seven at both tracks, and lesser lights Brian Stuard and Ryan Armour have finished inside the top-six at both venues.

Alex Noren, who has Rocket Classic form figures reading MC-4-9-MC, finished third here in his sole appearance in 2020, and although he has missed a couple of cuts at the Rocket Classic, the 2023 winner, Hodges, sat third at halfway on his debut in the event and eighth at halfway last year.

Tony Finau won both events back-to-back in 2022 and the 2024 runner-up to Jhonnatan Vegas, Max Greyserman, was beaten in a playoff in Detroit by Aldrich Potgieter last year.

Although he eventually finished tied for 25^th, the 2024 Rocket Classic runner-up, Akshay Bhatia, was tied for the lead here with 18 to play last year and Jake Knapp finished fourth and third in the two events in 2025.

And finally, last year's runner-up, Sam Stevens, also gave the link a boost given he finished 10^th at the Rocket Classic in 2024 so it looks like a very strong correlation.

---

Check out players on the FedEx Cup bubble

Now that the majors are all done and dusted, the FedEx Cup Series is looming large and everyone's jockeying for position ahead of the opening event - the FedEx St Jude Championship - in less than a month's time.

Only the top 70 on the Fed-Ex Cup standings make it to the event so anyone in and around that mark may well play better than they have for some time.

The 2023 winner, Hodges, sat 74^th in the FedEx Cup Standings, the 2024 champ, Vegas, moved up from 149^th place to 67^th and last year's winner, Kitayama, moved up from 110^th to 53^rd so it's been a great angle in over the last three years.

---

Deere Run form trumps Open form

Anyone that contended in last week's Open Championship at Royal Birkdale could well be jaded and they might struggle to lift themselves for what's just a run of the mill event. Especially if they've already secured enough Fed-Ex Cup points to guarantee a place in the playoffs.

Finau won the 2022 edition after playing in the Open, but he was never in-contention - finished 28^th after making the cut on the number - and he'd had three weeks off before then, so he was nice and fresh.

Here's how the six winners to date fared in their two starts prior to winning here and you'll notice that only two winners have played in the Open and that three winners have finished inside the top 20 at the recent John Deere Classic at Deere Run.

2019 - Matthew Wolff - Missed cuts at both the Travelers Championship and the Rocket Classic
2020 - Michael Thompson - 64^th in the Rocket Classic and a missed cut at the Workday Charity Open
2021 - Cameron Champ - Missed cut at the Rocket Classic and 11^th in the John Deere Classic
2022 - Tony Finau - 13^th in the Travelers Championship and 28^th in the Open Championship
2023 - Lee Hodges - 12^th in the Scottish Open and a missed cut in the Open Championship
2024 - Jhonattan Vegas - 25^th at the Rocket Classic and 20^th in the John Deere Classic
2025 - Kurt Kitayama - Fifth in the John Deere Classic and 14^th in the Barracuda Championship

---

Fantastic event for long-shots

Kitayama was quite well fancied at 42.041/1 12 months ago but Hodges was a pick for the Find Me a 100 Column in 2023, the first three winners all went off at a triple-figure price, and Vegas was a 130.0129/1 chance in 2024.

In addition to Vegas taking the title, three of the first four home two years ago were trading at a three-figure price before the off so despite the 2022 result, it's been a really good event for outsiders so far.

Winner's position and Betfair Exchange price pre-round four

2019 - Matthew Wolff - tied for the lead 8.88/1
2020 - Michael Thompson - tied for the lead 4.84/1
2021 - Cameron Champ - tied 4^th, trailing by two 17.016/1
2022 - Tony Finau - tied third, trailing by five 6.86/1
2023 - Lee Hodges - led by five 1.374/11
2024 - Jhonattan Vegas - led by one 2.588/5
2025 - Kurt Kitayama - tied third, trailing by one 8.415/2

---

A slow start can be overcome

The inaugural winner, Wolff, trailed by seven in a tie for 49th after round one and he was eight adrift in a tie for 35th at halfway. He went on to win by one after firing 62-65 over the weekend and we very nearly saw another off the pace winner a year later.

The eventual second, pre-event 1000.0999/1 shot, Adam Long, managed to tie for the lead when posting 17-under-par, having made the cut on the number, and having sat tied for 51st at halfway. It looked for a while that -17 might be enough for a playoff at least but Michael Thompson birdied two of the last three holes to win by two.

Champ was matched in-running at 700.0699/1 on Thursday in 2021 and he ended the first round five off the lead in a tie for 38^th. He was still four adrift at halfway in a tie for 19^th and two off the lead with a round to go.

Scott Piercy looked in control in 2022 when he led by four with 18 to play and he was matched at as low as 1.162/13 before he played the last six holes in five-over par to lose by four.

In contrast to Piercy, the eventual winner, Finau, who had trailed by five through three rounds, birdied 14, 15 and 16 to put the tournament to bed before he bogeyed the par five finishing hole.

Hodges was a very impressive wire-to wire winner three years ago, leading by a stroke after round one, by four at halfway, and by five through 54 holes, but a year later, Vegas, was five adrift after round one and four back at halfway.

Vegas was in front with 18 to play but Greyserman, who had been a 1000.0999/1 chance when trailing by eight with a round to go, hit a low of 2.727/4 before Vegas held his nerve to win by a stroke.

Having trailed by a shot with 18 to play, last year's winner, Kitayama, birdied five of the first six holes on Sunday to assume command and he never looked like getting beat but he'd sat six back and tied for 44^th at halfway before tying the course record on Saturday and he traded at as high as 450.0449/1 after two rounds.

Although Vegas and the first two winners were leading with a round to go, and Hodges obliterated the field from start to finish three years ago, it's clearly somewhere you can come with a late rattle, and it's already proved to be a great course for late drama so it's a fantastic event for trading on a Sunday.

---

Bookmark Betting.Betfair for golf betting tips every week

---