The Open

Open Championship Find Me a 100 Winner Special: Fantastic Fox fancied to contend

Golfer Ryan Fox
Ryan Fox - fancied to contend at Royal Liverpool

Following his success with 120.0119/1 chance, Wyndham Clark, at the year's third major - the US Open - our man's back with four selections for the final major of the year and one pick in the Barracuda...


Recent results suggest that the Open Championship isn't a brilliant tournament for outsiders and that we might be up against it this week but if we go back a little further back in time, that really isn't the case.

Shane Lowry was a 100.099/1 chance when he won at Portrush four years ago and he's the only triple-figure priced winner since Zach Johnson won at 150.0149/1 at St Andrews eight years ago but Paul Lawrie closed out the last century by winning at Carnoustie at a huge price and seven of the last 19 winners have been matched at a triple-figure price.

In 2009, '10 and '11, all three winners - Stewart Cink, Louis Oosthuizen and Darren Clarke - went off at more than 300.0299/1 and Ben Curtis in 2003 and Todd Hamilton a year later, were almost unconsidered longshots.

There are plenty of trends and stats we can examine ahead of the 151st Open Championship to help us unearth the winner but my favourite fact is that 45 of the last 46 major championships have been won by someone inside the top-50 in the world rankings so that's a pretty good place to start.

The top 13 in the rankings are all trading at single or double-figure prices this week and the world number 14, Will Zalatoris, is still out rehabbing after a microdiscectomy to relieve pain from his herniated discs in his back but the world number 15, Keegan Bradley, despite winning the Travelers Championship impressively in his penultimate start, is trading at a whopping 160.0159/1!

Chance Keegan to score at Royal Liverpool

There's no denying that Bradley's Open form isn't great, reading 34-15-19-MC-18-79-MC-MC-MC but the numbers alone don't really tell the whole story.

His 19th place finish here at Royal Liverpool in 2014 came after a slow start that saw him sit 66th after round one and 31st at halfway and when he finished 18th at Troon two years later, he'd sat third and three off the lead at halfway.

Keegan Bradley wins the Travelers.jpg

Bradley, who won the US PGA Championship back in 2011, is in search of his second major championship and at the age of 37, he's the right age for this major.

As many as seven of the last 11 winners have been 32 or older and as Dave Tindall highlights in his 10-year-trends piece, five of the last ten winners have been 35 or over.

Back Keegan Bradley (2U) @ 160.0159/1

Bet now

Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.01/1

Fantastic Fox fancied to contend

Bradley is the only player inside the world's top 22 that's trading at a triple figure price but there are plenty of outsiders inside the top-50 to consider.

The world number 29, Lowry, is a well-fancied 44.043/1 chance and the likes of Tom Kim (24), Corey Connors (30), Justin Rose (32), and Hideki Matsuyama (34) all trade at a double figure price but the other 23 players ranked between 23 and 50 are priced up between 100.099/1 and 800.0799/1. And a case can be made for many of them.

At odds in excess of 500.0499/1, recent winners, Taylor Moore, Emiliano Grillo and Nick Taylor are ridiculously big and given Francesco Molinari won the Open a week after finishing second in the John Deere Classic, three years after Zach had won at St Andrews having finishing third at the JDC, should this year's JDC winner, the world number 28, Sepp Straka, really be a 300.0299/1 poke?

Having finished eighth behind Tiger Woods here way back in 2006 and fifth from the wrong side of the draw in 2014, Aussie veteran, Adam Scott, is an interesting runner at 100.099/1.

He really should have won at Royal Lytham back in 2012 and he had a great chance to take the title in both 2013 and 2015 so he has a fabulous record in the event but my only other pick from inside the top-50 is the world number 42, Ryan Fox.

Now playing on the PGA Tour, Fox hasn't really looked like winning in 2023 and his Open form figures, reading 49-MC-39-16-67-MC, are nowhere near as good as they should be but I'm more than happy to chance him at 180.0179/1 given he's in search of a third win in 38 starts.

Although he's not threatened to win this year, he's been playing some consistent golf and last week's tied 12th in the Scottish Open is a perfect prep.

As a winner at the exposed and links-like Al Hamra Golf Club in Ras Al Khaimah, a desperately unlucky runner-up in the Irish Open at Ballyliffin, and the reigning champion of the Alfred Dunhill Links, the 34-year-old is one of the finest links exponents in the field.

Back Ryan Fox (2U) @ 180.0179/1

Bet now

Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.01/1

Hugely promising Hojgaard chanced again

I thought Nicolai Hojgaard might be motivated by his brother Ramus' victory in their homeland at the Made In Denmark two weeks ago when I put him up last week at 180.0179/1 and he certainly played as if he was.

Tyrrell Hatton was the only player to better Nicolai's 63 on Friday and only Robert MacIntyre and Corey Conners bettered his 67 in foul conditions on Sunday.

Unfortunately, he failed to break par on Thursday and Saturday but his nine-under-par total was enough to see him finish tied for sixth to secure the final spot in the field this week and I'm happy to chance him at 230.0229/1.

Whether he quite has the patience and consistency to win a major yet is debatable, but he most definitely has the game, the bottle, and most importantly, the belief to do so and I'm happy to chance him at a juicy price.

Back Nicolai Hojgaard (1.5U) @ 230.0229/1

Bet now

Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.01/1

Prolific Spaniard an insulting price

Given he won the Boys Amateur Championship at Hoylake, and that he played nicely enough last week when a selection in the Scottish Open (finished 12th), I was quite tempted to put up Ewen Ferguson again, but I don't think his ceiling is as high as Hojgaard's so for my fourth and final Open pick, I'm chancing Pablo Larrazabal at 1000.0999/1.

To put it bluntly, Pablo's major record is appalling but with two wins already this year- the Korea Championship and the KLM Open - he's an insulting price.

Both this year's DP Tour wins (his eighth and ninth in total) came a couple of weeks either side of his 40th birthday in May and that milestone appears to have given him a new perspective on life.

Pablo Larrazabal wins in Korea.jpg

After he'd won the KLM Open at the linksy Bernardus Golf Course (Fox was second there in 2022), Pablo spoke about how well fellow Spaniard, Miguel Angel Jimenez, played in his 40s and while Jimenez never won a major, he did lead this Championship at halfway ten years ago at the age of 49 and a similar performance by Pablo wouldn't surprise me at all.

Back Pablo Larrazabal (0.5U) @ 1000.0999/1

Bet now

Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.01/1

Stick with Sullivan

And finally, the Open Championship isn't the only event this week.

Over in California the Barracuda Championship offers up a chance to the DP World and PGA Tour lesser lights and I'm more than happy to back one of last week's fancies at the Barbasol Championship - Andy Sullivan - at an industry-wide best of 200/1201.00 with the Sportsbook.

The Englishman missed the cut after starting nicely last week but he's playing well at present and the Modified Stableford scoring system used this week might suit his aggressive style nicely.

Back Andy Sulivan (0.5u each-way)

Bet now

*You can follow me on Twitter @SteveThePunter

STEVE'S 2023 FIND ME A 100 WINNER P/L

Staked: 135.50 Us

Returned: 200 Us

P/L: +64.5 Us

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