Open Championship 2026 Tips: Our experts' best bets for Royal Birkdale

Open Championship 2026 Tips and Predictions

Click here for Open Championship 2026 odds
Starts Thursday 16 July, 7AM
Live on Sky Sports

Please Note: Prices shown in various Bet Banners below were correct at the time of the accompanaying preview being published but may have subsequently changed.

The Punter's Preview: Back hot Hovland at 40/141.00

Steve Rawlings: A recent win is a huge plus so the winner of last month's Travelers Championship, Viktor Hovland, is a likely candidate this week.

The 28-year-old Norwegian, who's already won 12 times across the globe, is arguably the best player on the planet yet to win a major championship and he looks very nicely primed to get off the mark here.

The world number 12 sat tied for 49^th at the halfway stage of the Scottish Open last week, in his first start since his victory in the Travelers last month, but he finished the week in 13^th after firing a 69 in round three and a 64 on Sunday that was matched by only Rory McIlroy and the winner, Tom Kim, but bettered by nobody.

The last four Open winners have finished 10^th, 12^th, 15^th and eighth in the Scottish Open so his 13^th last week looks a fabulous warm up and he's already contended in two Opens.

Hovland didn't handle the pressure brilliantly when tied for the lead with a round to go at St Andrews in 2022, eventually finishing fourth, beaten by six, and he fell from fourth to 13^th two years ago in round four, although he was never likely to catch the runaway winner, Brian Harman.

The Norwegian looks a great price and I was more than happy to row in at 42.041/1.

Each-Way Tips: Back Justin Rose @ 28/129.00

Dave Tindall: Rory McIlroy went 11 years between winning majors (it was 10 for Ernie Els) and I'm absolutely not ruling out Rose bridging what would be a 13-year gap.

Quite simply, the majors have been a huge focus for him in the last few years and he's delivered. Rose has posted second and third at the last two Masters and his majors form this year reads 3-10-11. Darren Clarke, Ernie Els, Phil Mickelson and Henrik Stenson all won the Open in their 40s and 45-year-old can follow suit.

Earlier this year he enjoyed another triumph by the coast when romping to a seven-shot victory in the Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines. He's been ticking over nicely since and it's noticeable that his three best finishes since Torrey Pines win all came in majors.

Last week Rose released 'Chasing Forever', a documentary for The R&A's YouTube channel about his chase for the claret jug.

Hopefully it'll need an update after this week.

First Round Leader Tips: Back Brian Harman @ 66/167.00

Dave Tindall: Brian Harman will surely have good vibes this week having won the 2023 Open by six shots along the coast at Royal Liverpool. He was fourth after the first day that week but it isn't his only fast start in an Open. The left-hander was second after round one at Royal St George's in 2021 and 10th through 18 holes at Royal Portrush last year.

Harman now has four top 20s in the last five Opens which makes him a real specialist in this event. In the last major to be played, June's US Open, he was also in the top 10 after day one and 36th at last week's Scottish Open was hopefully a good links tune-up.

Harman, who was also seventh after R1 at Colonial five starts ago, has a mid-morning tee-time of 10:20.

Big Price Winner Tips: Back Kurt Kitayama @ 180.0179/1

Steve Rawlings: At 33, he's just the right age given the winners this century have had an average age of 32.4, and although he's yet to shine in an Open Championship, he demonstrated his ability to play links golf in tough conditions when he finished runner-up to the 2024 Open winner, Xander Schauffele, at the Scottish Open in 2022. That was the only occasion that the Scottish Open has been won with a single figure total this century.

He's coming into the event under the radar with consistent form figures reading an ordinary 22-53-25-44 but he was 10^th in the US PGA Championship five starts ago and he sat sixth after an opening 66 at the Renaissance last week so he's shown glimpses.

He was third after the opening round of the US Masters and he finished second in the Genesis Invitational in February, at another tough track, Riviera, as well as eighth in the Heritage and ninth in the Cadillac Championship.

The pick of the Open Specials: Back McIlroy, Fleetwood or Fitzpatrick to Win @ 4/15.00

Dave Tindall: This has been boosted from 3/14.00 to 4/15.00 and is a nice way of getting three genuine win candidates on board.

McIlroy is perhaps a bit undercooked but a fast-finishing seventh in Scotland last week bodes well as does his top four here in 2017. Fitzpatrick is probably the third-best golfer on the planet after a stunning 2026 and he was fourth in last year's Open.

Fleetwood is the local hero and a former Open runner-up. If he can refind the levels he showed in the second half of 2025 the current FedEx Cup champion has the links skills to get that overdue first major.

Top 10 Finish Tips: Back Schaufelle @ 3/14.00

Dave Tindall: Given that his true odds should be a shade of odds-on (19 top 10s in 37 majors), Xander Schauffele is virtually an autobet if offered at over 3/14.00.

That's the case here and a 20th here on his Open debut adds another layer of confidence.

A reminder that since the start of 2024 he's posted eight top 10s in his last 11 majors. Two of the other three were 11th and 12th.

Back Schauffele for a Top 10 at 4.131/10.

Open Championship Player Profiles: Rory McIlroy

From Matt Cooper's Player Guide

Rory McIlroy

Open Championship record (most recent result on the right): 42-47-3-25-60-MC-1-5-4-2-MC-46-3-6-MC-7

Memories of the 2017 Open at Royal Birkdale might cause the back-to-back Masters champion to wonder 'What if?' because he sat outside the top 50 after 18 holes before charging thereafter into a share of fourth. He did, however, record his joint worst Greens in Regulation ranking in any of the Open he's made the cut in. He'll need to improve on that. His family spent the week before the Scottish Open in Cornwall with the Lowrys and the Donalds. The golfers warmed up for the links challenge at St Enodoc, and McIlroy opened the Scottish Open with a 65.

Angle? He's recorded seven top 10s in his last 10 Opens. 

First round record? In 16 Open first rounds, he has two outright leads, a second, a third, but he's three times been T129 or worse.

Back McIlroy on the Sportsbook
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Open Championship 10-year Trends point to...

Dave Tindall: It's a tie between last month's US Open winner Wyndham Clark and 2021 Open champion Collin Morikawa! I didn't see that one coming.

The two Americans score maximum points and edge out the European trio of Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm and Matt Fitzpatrick.

Scottie Scheffler has to settle for seventh due to getting points docked for being the defending champ. Padraig Harrington in 2007/2008 was the last to go back-to-back.

Clark, aged 32, is 7th in the DataGolf rankings after recent wins at the US Open and Byron Nelson and was tied fourth in last year's Open Championship at Royal Portrush.

Despite all that, he's 33/134.00 (1/5 Odds, 6 Places).

Major and Current Form Stats: Is Flying Fitzpatrick the one?

Andy Swales: Matt Fitzpatrick's remarkable season continues with another podium finish in Scotland on Sunday. Currently a career-high No 3 in the world, the Sheffield pro tied-fourth at Royal Portrush 12 months ago.

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