Open Championship 2025 Favourites Rated: Rahm and Hatton worth a play in top finish markets

• Jon Rahm is full of confidence and loves playing in Ireland

• Tyrrell Hatton was sixth at Portrush in 2019 and can challenge again

• Get a free bet for every first round birdie your Open selection scores. T&Cs apply

• Read Dave Tindall's 10-year trends piece here

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Scottie Scheffler - World No.1 seeks first Open Top Five

Scheffler has won the Masters twice and added the US PGA title a couple of months ago. He also has a second and third in the US Open but in the Open Championship the Texan has yet to have a top five. The World No.1 is just 2.68/5 for his first this week. 

The other angle is that his Open record shows much promise. He owns a seventh and an eighth in four attempts and nothing worse than 23rd. 

At last week's Scottish Open, Scheffler talked about his fondness for the creativity of links golf and third, eighth and 12th in that event at the Renaissance Club back it up. Notably, he hasn't finished outside the top 10 in each of his last 10 worldwide starts.

Last four events: 8-6-7-1
Open form: 7-23-21-8
Royal Portrush form: Debut
Last 50 starts - Win: 22%, Top 5: 60%, Top 10: 80%

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Rory McIlroy - Masters champion out to avenge 2019 MC

Rory, the local hero, already has plenty of contrasting history at Royal Portrush, from the astonishing 61 as a 16-year-old to the agony of his opening 79 and missed cut in the 2019 Open there. He should be much better equipped this time and, of course, he did fire that superb 65 in round two six years ago even if it wasn't enough to make the weekend.  

McIlroy has won at three elite venues this year - Pebble Beach, Sawgrass and Augusta National - and following the not impossible to understand let-down after completing the Grand Slam with his thrilling Masters win, he looks to be back on track.

Rory was runner-up in last week's Scottish Open after a sixth in the Travelers Championship and grinding 19th in the US Open and his Open record includes six top fives, the highlight his victory at Hoylake in 2014. He's 2.915/8 for another top five this week. A final note, McIlroy finished 10th at Royal Portrush when it staged the 2012 Irish Open.

Last four events: 2-6-19-MC
Open form: MC-6-3-46-MC-2-4-5-1-MC-60-25-3-47-42
Royal Portrush form: MC-10
Last 50 starts - Win: 16%, Top 5: 44%, Top 10: 54%

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Jon Rahm - Spaniard is a strong Open performer

Top 10 backers of Rahm missed out by a single shot at Royal Portrush in 2019 when the Spaniard finished in a tie for 11th. But they would have collected in three of the last four Opens and in two of those he was second (Hoylake) and third (Royal St George's).

The Spaniard is also a two-time Irish Open winner - Portstewart (2017) and Lahinch (2019). Portstewart is a 10-minute drive down the road so he has strong memories of this part of Northern Ireland.

Then there are his performances in this year's majors and on LIV. Rahm was 14th at Augusta, eighth in the US PGA and seventh in the US Open while the latest of his regular top 10s came via second place on home soil in the LIV Golf Andalucia last week.

Last four events: 2-11-7-8
Open form: 7-2-34-3-11-MC-44-59
Royal Portrush form: 11
Last 50 starts - Win: 6%, Top 5: 38%, Top 10: 70%

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Tommy Fleetwood - Englishman a high-class links performer

Fleetwood missed his first three Open cuts but now it's a surprise if we don't see him on the leaderboard in the year's final major.

The Englishman, who grew up playing links golf in Southport, has two top fives and a 10th in the last five Opens and the best of those came here at Royal Portrush when he finished runner-up to six-shot winner Shane Lowry.

Fleetwood hasn't really got going in this year's majors (21-41-MC) but after finishing second at the Travelers Championship last month - one of four top fives this season - plenty will back him to come good in the one he knows best.

Last four events: 16-4-41-4
Open form: MC-10-4-33-2-12-27-MC-MC-MC
Oakmont form: 2
Last 50 starts - Win: 2%, Top 5: 24%, Top 10: 36%

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Bryson DeChambeau - Scientist yet to crack links code

A missed cut at Oakmont came as a shock but overall DeChambeau has a superb record in the American majors. He's won two US Opens, been runner-up in the 2023 and 2024 US PGAs and placed fifth and sixth in the last two Masters.

But the Open Championship is a completely different kettle of fish and seven starts show just one finish better than 33rd. Admittedly that was a top 10 (eighth at St Andrews) but 20-under was the winning score at the Old Course that year so perhaps that outlier is understandable.

DeChambeau, who missed the cut at Portrush in 2019 (74-73), has had some excellent results this year and it's probably easy to ignore his 30th on tight, tree-lined Valderrama at last week's LIV Golf Andalucia.

Last four events: 30-9-MC-4
Open form: MC-60-8-33-MC-51-MC
Royal Portrush form: MC
Last 50 starts - Win: 8%, Top 5: 32%, Top 10: 52%

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Xander Schauffele - Defending champion has had low-key year

An early-season rib injury kept him off the course and bad habits trying to protect it have combined to limit Schauffele to just two top 10s all season.

The good news for the man who lifted the Claret Jug at Royal Troon last year is that they came in a major (eighth at the US Masters) and on the links in Scotland last week (eighth Scottish Open) where he ranked 1st for Approach.

As well as his Troon triumph, Schauffele was runner-up at Carnoustie in 2018 while he's made the top 20 in each of the last three Opens. A stellar player in the majors, it would be no surprise to see him have a big week.

Last four events: 8-61-12-25
Open form: 1-17-15-26-41-2-20
Royal Portrush form: 41
Last 50 starts - Win: 6%, Top 5: 28%, Top 10: 50%

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Tyrrell Hatton - Links record points to big week

Like his fellow Englishman Fleetwood, Hatton also performed strongly in the 2019 Open at Royal Portrush, closing with a 69 to finish sixth. 

There are plenty of missed cuts in his Open record but that sixth along with fifth at Troon, 11th at St Andrews and 20th at Hoylake show he can do well on the links. And, of course, he's also a three-time winner (plus two seconds) of the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship.

Hatton heads to Portrush on the back of his best ever major finish - a fourth in the US Open at Oakmonth where he really contended on Sunday for the first time. It could be an ideal springboard to finally win one.

Last four events: 23-5-4-15
Open form: MC-20-11-MC-6-51-MC-5-MC-MC-MC-MC
Royal Portrush form: 6
Last 50 starts - Win: 6%, Top 5: 30%, Top 10: 44%

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Ludvig Aberg - Feast or famine for Swede in majors

Aberg must have one of the most contrasting starts to a majors career in history. He's played in seven, missed four cuts but also posted second, seventh and 12th.

The 25-year-old Swede's season has also been up and down, the obvious high coming in February when he won the Genesis Invitational at Torrey Pines.

He's missed the cut in the last two majors but 16th at Memorial, 13th in the Canadian Open and eighth in last week's Scottish Open where he ranked 1st in the All-Around category show that there are some encouraging signs again as he tees it up in just his second Open.

Last four events: 8-36-MC-13
Open form: MC
Royal Portrush form: Debut
Last 50 starts - Win: 6%, Top 5: 24%, Top 10: 38%

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Robert MacIntyre - Scot has positive memories

Players always remember their first Open, especially if they perform well. And that will be the case with Robert MacIntyre on his return to Royal Portrush where he finished sixth on debut.

Also eighth at Royal St George's in 2021, MacIntyre has taken huge steps in the last couple of years and a two-win season on the PGA Tour in 2024 included victory on the links in his home Scottish Open.

The left-hander didn't play well when defending last week but only last month we saw him make a huge run at the US Open where he eventually finished runner-up. The future looks very bright.

Last four events: 65-17-2-36
Open form: 50-71-34-8-6
Royal Portrush form: 6
Last 50 starts - Win: 4%, Top 5: 8%, Top 10: 26%

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Viktor Hovland - Norwegian building strong majors record 

Hovland was Low Amateur in his first two majors (32nd Masters and 12th US Open) and now he's really delivering at this level as a pro.

The Norwegian has a second, two thirds, a fourth and a seventh in his last 12 as well as 13th, 19th and 21st in that period. His Open form shows 12th on debut at Royal St George's in 2021, tied fourth at St Andrews in 2022 after sharing the 54-hole lead and 13th at Hoylake in 2023.

He's lacked consistency this season but there was the high of his Valspar Championship win in March and since then he's posted third in the US Open and 11th at last week's Scottish Open.

Last four events: 11-WD-3-25
Open form: MC-13-4-12
Royal Portrush form: Debut
Last 50 starts - Win: 8%, Top 5: 22%, Top 10: 28%

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Summary

Playing Valderrama rather than practising on the links can be seen as a negative for Jon Rahm but he had the benefits of home Spanish comforts, the boost of a second-place finish and also got to test himself in the wind.

And when he said later that he'd hit the ball as well as he had in the last 18 months, you really get the sense that Rahm viewed it as very good prep.

With a strong Open record, including 11th here, and impressive form in this year's majors of 14-8-7, I'll back Rahm for a Top 5 at 4.216/5 on the exchange.

Tyrrell Hatton was sixth here in 2019 and after his fourth place in the US Open, the Englishman has the benefit of a big recent run in a major.

As well as his stellar record at the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, he also has a couple of top fives in the Irish Open.

And with Harry Colt the designer of Portrush, it may also be significant that Hatton has a win and a second on another of his famed layouts, Wentworth.

Back Hatton for a Top 10 at 4.131/10.

These are my top two bets but I'll also definitely consider backing Xander Schauffele, Viktor Hovland and Robert MacIntyre in the Top 10 market.

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