Ryder Cup 2025: Dave Tindall's best bets for Bethpage Black

• The Ryder Cup is due a closer contest after recent wipeouts

• Scottie Scheffler should play a massive role for the hosts

• Tommy Fleetwood can be one of Europe's star performers

History says USA deserve to be favourites

Despite the ever-increasing hype and pre-match posturing, we haven't seen a close Ryder Cup since the Miracle of Medinah in 2012 when Europe fought back from 10-6 down overnight to pull off a dramatic 14.5-13.5 win.

Since then, there's been a very clear pattern: the hosts have blitzed the visitors by wide margins.

Did we always see it coming? Perhaps so. 

Overseas American teams have tended to be ill-prepared, rather woolly in their thinking and vulnerable to the kryptonite of course prep. 

But on their own patch, they've ridden the wave of boisterous crowds, created conditions to suit and given Europe a taste of their own medicine.

The market for this year's showdown reflects the fact that the host team have won eight of the last nine Ryder Cups.

On the Betfair Sportsbook USA are 4/61.67 favourites, with Europe 7/42.75 and the Tie 11/112.00

Cash in on a tight contest - it's overdue

Let's take a look at those recent Ryder Cups:

2023 - Marco Simone - Europe won by 5pts
2021 - Whistling Straits - USA won by 10pts
2018 - Le Gof National - Europe won by 7pts
2016 - Hazeltine - USA won by 6pts
2014 - Gleneagles - Europe won by 5pts

If the pattern repeats, bets such as USA to win by 4-6 points at  4/15.00 or even by 7 points or more at 5/16.00 could appeal.

Not to these eyes though.

Let's go a little further back in history and note that between 1987 and 1999 we had a tie, four scorelines of 14.5-13.5 (the minimum margin) and two 15-13s in those seven Ryder Cups.

Just three of those seven were won by the hosts.

Interestingly, over those Ryder Cups the overall scoreline is Europe 70.5-69.5 USA so, taking a wider perspective, these are two evenly-matched sides. 

Predicting a home win should be the starting point but with Europe having 11 of the 12 that won so handsomely in Rome as well as the same, meticulous captain in Luke Donald, they must be in with a shout of that elusive away victory.

The 7/42.75 is good enough if you're cheering them on although I think it's easier to find a less stressful sub-2/13.00 shot to be honest.

Keegan Bradley should be an astute captain and although not possessing the big-hitting weapons of old (DJ, Koepka, Finau etc), they will be tough to beat.

So in the outright market I'm going to predict a close contest by backing either team to win by 1-3pts (that gives us 14.5-13.5, 15-13 and 15.5-12.5 either way). 

We best also have a saver on the Tie which is 14.013/1 on the exchange.

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Top US Points Scorer

My 9/110.00 pick, Max Homa, landed the gamble in Rome as his tally of 3.5pts was easily enough to win this market. Brian Harman and Patrick Cantlay were tied second with 2pts.

But the thinking there was that the USA, as a team, wouldn't score many points so there was scope for an outsider to win it with a low total. In the end, 2.5pts would have been enough.

Homa also stood out as he was one of the few Americans to get tournament sharp by playing in the Fortinet (now Procure). This time 10 of the 12 Bethpage-bound  Americans took part in that event in California.

Dustin Johnson won this market with a maxiumum 5pts in 2021 and one of the huge keys for Top USA/European betting is assessing just how many matches each player will likely take part in. 

Even Scottie Scheffler may not get all five although there's a very good chance he will.

Those who could get four include Xander Schauffele, Patrick Cantlay, Justin Thomas, Collin Morikawa, Bryson DeChambeau and Cam Young.

Schauffele has just become a new Dad so the lack of prep may weaken his partnership with Cantlay, Thomas may be given a mentor role and therefore paired with rookies Ben Griffin or JJ Spaun, Morikawa perhaps isn't quite the perfect fit for this long, intimidating course while the one-off DeChambeau is hard to find a partner for so may be dropped for the foursomes.

Scheffler at 11/43.75 is very tempting but for an each-way poke (1/4 Odds, 3 Places), I'll try Cam Young at 9s.

He's playing in front of his home New York fans, ended the season in excellent form (getting that elusive first win) and he has the game to fit both foursomes (elite driver) and fourballs (15th for Par Breakers this year).

Young ranks 5th for SG: Putting in 2025 and that will also have taken Bradley's eye.

His superb records in majors shows he's a man for the big occasion.

Top European Points Scorer

One key observation with Donald is that he loves the marginal gains. His team training with VR headsets programmed to replicate the expected barrage of abusive messages is one such example.

Getting all the team over to the United States early to put them in the correct time zone is another while something bigger than a marginal gain to be honest is Donald's very clear opinion that the ball is a huge factor in weighing up his foursomes pairings. 

It certainly worked in Rome as Europe demolished the USA 7-1 in the foursomes when players play alternate shot with just one ball.

Rory McIlroy and Tommy Fleetwood both play TaylorMade and, in tandem, won both their foursomes matches two years ago so there's one obvious partnership.

McIlroy and Viktor Hovland were the only two Europeans to play all five at Marco Simone - Hovland and Ludvig Aberg beat Scheffler and Koepka 9-7 in Saturday's foursomes!

Fleetwood, Aberg, Tyrrell Hatton and Jon Rahm all got four so that should offer some clues.

McIlroy and Rahm are the joint-favourites at 4/15.00 but, at a couple of points bigger, I'll go with Fleetwood, whose overall percentage points rate in Ryder Cups is the best of the three. 

Fleetwood has won seven, lost three and halved two of his 12 matches for a points rate of 66.7% while Rahm stands at 62.5% and Rory at 54.5%

The Englishman has been outstanding in the last few months and his Tour Championship victory - what a way to get your first win on American soil! - that gave him FedEx Cup glory will have him walking tall.

Fleetwood played Bethpage Black in the 2019 US PGA and was 10th at halfway before dropping off in round four so he's shown he can play the course.

Specials offer another way in

I reluctantly overlooked Scheffler and McIlroy in the Top US/Euro markets but I will get them on board in a special.

It could well be that these two - Nos. 1 and 2 in the world - are the only players to get all five starts.

So let's head to the #OddsOnThat market where it's 12/113.00 that they're the respective top scorers for their teams. The big key here is that it includes ties so they could each be joint top with three or four others and we'd still ge the same full payout. 

Rory has finished top 10 in the two majors he's played at Bethpage and a big display here would add to what has already been a magical year.

I'll also back Scheffler at 23/103.30 to hit the opening tee shot for the USA on Friday morning.

If you're going to play someone in all five matches, it helps to put them out first to secure maximum recovery time for their return to battle later that afternoon.

Scheffler is a lock to play the morning foursomes - probably with Russell Henley (they played both matches together in this format in last year's Presidents Cup) - and it's a statement move by Bradley to make his best player lead the team off.

Scheffler and Henley won both their foursomes at the 2024 Presidents Cup so I'll also back USA to win the first full point.

It's 4/51.80 and I like the bet because this is actually a bigger price than USA winning the whole thing and this task seems much more straightforward.

Europe will go strong too first up but history suggests McIlroy and Fleetwood will be tucked away further down so perhaps Rahm and Hatton will be Europe's first duo.

If the match is tied, it runs over to the next match and so on.

But in the last two Ryder Cups staged on American soil, the USA have won the Friday foursomes by a combined 7-1 so that 4/51.80 appeals.

Now read: Matt Cooper's profiles of Team Europe and Team USA