Valspar Championship First-Round Leader Tips: A trio of picks at 50/1 and 75/1

• 75/176.00 Chandler Phillips was third here last year

• 75/176.00 Davis Riley has course and recent FRL form

• 50/151.00 Nicolai Hojgaard is showing plenty of good form 

• Read Steve Rawlings' in-depth preview of the Valspar here

Weather forecast for Thursday/Valspar Championship FRL history

It's not often we see a weather forecast point to such a clear draw advantage.

But for round one it's pretty obvious that an early tee-time is favourable.

The prediction is for winds around 10-12mph for the early starters before they climb towards 20-30mph in the afternoon.

There's been a fairly even split when it comes to FRL history over the last four years with five of the nine leaders to have a piece of the Thursday lead teeing off in the afternoon.

The odds must surely be stacked the way of the morning starters this year though.

In the last four editions, 64 (7-under) was required to top the leaderboard in three of them. 

Chandler Phillips @ 75/176.00

With the wind graph steadily rising, it really does seem a case of earlier the better.

So let's start with a punt on Chandler Phillips, who tees off in the opening group from the 1st at 07.35.

Phillips has finished in the top 10 after 18 holes in two of his last three events so has some good FRL credentials.

An opening 66 put him ninth after round one of the Mexico Open while he was eighth after the first day of The Players Championship thanks to a 68.

Wind back to The Fall Series events and you'll find first rounds of 65 at the Sanderson Farms and 64 in the RSM Classic. They were good enough to put him in the top five after 18 holes in both.

The other big tick is that he was third on his tournament debut here 12 months ago when a pair of 68s had given him the halfway lead.

As a Texan he'll be used to winds picking up later in his round and hopefully by then he'll have plenty of early birdies in the bag.

Davis Riley @ 75/176.00

Davis Riley is another early starter (08.08) with good FRL credentials although, like Phillips, his price has been cut to reflect the advantage he's expected to have.

Of course, it could play out differently and, for context, he's now the same price as Shane Lowry in this market! It's tempting to play the Irishman (1.34pm starter) at those odds as, y'know, he's not bad in the wind.

But if Davis does get the predicted weather boost, he has the form to cash in.

Two starts ago he set out with a 64 in another Florida event, the Cognizant Classic, to lie fifth after day one and he shot that same number on day one of the Puerto Rico Open a week later to occupy third spot on the R1 leaderboard.

A 66 in round two of last week's Players Championship was another strong early effort.

Riley, a winner at Colonial last year, also has a good record at the Valspar.

He was runner-up on debut in 2022 when opening with a 65 and also cracked the top 20 in 2023 (third at halfway).

Nicolai Hojgaard @ 50/151.00

It makes sense to find another player with a pre-8am tee-time and Nicolai Hojgaard (07.57) fits the bill.

The Dane missed the cut at Sawgrass (73-73) but prior to that was 18th in the Cognizant Classic and eighth in the Mexico Open.

Scroll back a further week to the WM Phoenix Open and Hojgaard blasted a R1 66 to occupy fourth spot.

Also fourth after round one of October's Open de France, the youngster was in the top four after 18 holes at two majors last year (Masters and Open Championship).

His approach numbers have been strong in 2025 so he goes in as the final pick of our three early starters at 50s.  

Read more golf tips, previews and analysis here