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The Honda Classic Each-Way Tips: Svensson can follow up

Dave Tindall
21 February 2023
4:00 min read

Adam Svensson can claim a second win

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The PGA Tour switches coasts to Florida where Adam Svensson can make his mark at PGA National, says Dave Tindall...

33/1 Adam Svensson is already a winner this season
80/1 Brandon Wu was runner-up at Pebble Beach and fired a Friday 66 here last year
50/1 Buckley's second place in the Sony Open bodes well

Main Bet: Adam Svensson each-way @ 34.033/1

The West Coast Swing was dominated by Jon Rahm, whose trio of wins banked him a staggering $7.74m.

In all, five of the seven events went to major winners with Scottie Scheffler and Justin Rose also collecting silverware.

Max Homa and Si Woo Kim, who boast 10 PGA Tour wins between them, banked the other two.

But after a field full of glitz and glamour in Los Angeles last week, the line-up for The Honda Classic - the first event of the Florida Swing - pales in comparison.

The market tells the story with Sungjae Im installed as a 7/1 favourite to win for a second time on the Jack Nicklaus designed Champion Course at PGA National - a Par 70 best known for "The Bear Trap" (holes 15-17) which can wreck scorecards late in the round.

Im is World No. 18, the highest ranked player in the field, although Nos. 19 and 20 are here too: 12/1 Shane Lowry and 28/1 Billy Horschel. In terms of world ranking, Horschel is a value bet.

Lowry finished runner-up last year to Sepp Straka and the pair's stats give us some early clues.

Straka and Lowry ranked 3rd and 2nd for Scrambling and that stat has been a strong one at PGA National with 2018 winner Justin Thomas 1st, Keith Mitchell 2nd when taking glory in 2019 and Im 5th when triumphant in 2020.

The Strokes Gained: Tee To Green numbers of the top four last year also paint a picture: Straka was 4th, Lowry 2nd, Kurt Kitayama 5th and Daniel Berger 3rd.

The previous four winners here - Matt Jones, Im, Keith Mitchell and Thomas - all finished 1st for SG: Tee To Green. When comparing that to their SG: Putting rankings of 25th, 38th, 38th and 28th, it's clear what counts for more.

Rory McIlroy once said of PGA National: "It's a ball-striker's golf course. You have to hit fairways. You have to hit greens and you have to just take your chances when they come along."

I'll lead off with a punt on Adam Svensson at 33/1.

His chance is an obvious one really. The Canadian finished tied ninth here last year after making the cut on debut and in both those events he was fourth at halfway.

Add that to his top 10 in elite company in last week's Genesis Invitational and his price is more than justifiable in a field like this.

The desired stats look good for Svensson too. He ranks 11th for Scrambling this season and was 2nd for SG: Around The Green at Riviera last week. He's also 48th for SG: Tee To Green this season.

Back Adam Svensson each-way @

34.0

Svensson, of course, also collected his first PGA Tour win just six starts ago when landing the RSM Classic - another event played on a Bermuda Par 70.

It's worth noting that two years ago on the Korn Ferry Tour, he backed up a win in March's Club Car Championship with another 'W' at August's Nationwide Children's Hospitals Championship.

The circumstances look in place for Svensson to repeat that quick follow up but this time on the PGA Tour.

Next Best: Brandon Wu each-way @ 81.080/1

This is one of those weeks where players who don't win much - if at all - are near the front of the betting.

Matt Kuchar looks a good statistical fit but is 22/1. A reminder that he hasn't tasted victory for four years.

It means a decent strategy is to take a punt on talent and that brings Brandon Wu into the picture at 80/1.

The 26-year-old has played in the Walker Cup and Arnold Palmer Cup while he took 35th on his US Open debut when still an amateur in 2019.

Wu won the 2020 Korn Ferry Tour Championship and produced his best PGA Tour finish just three starts ago when tied second in the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am.

"I think I hit it really well this week which was helpful. I think I only missed one green this final round," he said later.

"I think as I get a little bit more experience, kind of being in one of those final groups and playing a final round where you might have a chance, I think, yeah, just getting a little bit more used to it, a little bit more comfortable. I think that will just help me grow as a player."

Since Pebble he's played all four rounds in Phoenix (50th) and missed the cut at Riviera last week but we shouldn't get too fixated on that.

Back Brandon Wu each-way @

81.0

In terms of his stats, Wu ranked 8th for SG: Tee To Green at Pebble and gained 3.263 strokes tee to green in Phoenix.

At PGA National, Wu has missed both cuts but he signed off last year with a 66, ranking 5th for SG: Tee To Green on the day in that four-under Friday lap.

Scanning Wu's record in Florida also shows him finishing runner-up in the Korn Ferry's Orange County National Championship while he shot middle rounds of 65-69 at last year's Valspar Championship before finishing tied 33rd.

A straight driver, many of Wu's best recent performances have come by the coast: second at Pebble, third at the Puerto Rico Open (2022) and sixth at the Scottish Open (2022).

We're not on a links course here but it's open and windy and just check the list of past winners; it's dominated by players who have excelled in the Open Championship or won the Sony Open (some obvious logic there given that Waialae is another Bermuda Par 70).

This looks good territory for Wu and his Friday 66 last year surely dropped a hint that he could make a big impression here.

Next Best: Hayden Buckley each-way @ 51.050/1

Strong driving will serve you well at PGA National and Straka ranked 1st for SG: Off The Tee when winning 12 months ago.

Widening the search, the last seven winners here have ranked in the top 13 for SG: OTT.

That's good news for Hayden Buckley as a check of the current standings shows him in fifth place for SG: Off The Tee.

Looking at the Total Driving standings, he's seventh in that thanks more to accuracy than distance.

The Sony Open link also helps his cause as Buckley was runner-up there just four starts ago after rounds of 67-64-64-68.

Asked what had impressed him the most at Waialae, Buckley said later: "Honestly the ball-striking, I've always known that it's my strength, but just to see it, especially after a month off.

"I really didn't think I needed to work on too much this off-season. I felt like coming in, again, just keeping my body healthy was important, and I did.

Back Hayden Buckley each-way @

51.0

"Just to see what I can do with the driver I think is something that will benefit me in the long run. It's not a very easy course to drive the ball and it's really hard to score out of the rough.

"I put the ball where I needed to ... I feel like good things are coming."

The negative is that he's not done much here in two visits (69th and MC) but Buckley does have a win in Florida.

That came at Lakewood Ranch in the Korn Ferry's LECOM Suncoast Classic in 2021 when he got in as 10th alternate!

Later he talked about patience being key in the windy conditions and how important scrambling was.

A look at Lakewood suggests there are some definite similarities to PGA National and his winning score of 271 has been the number in five of the last 14 Honda Classics.

Now a Florida resident, Buckley looks ready for this tough test and is worth an each-way punt at 50s.

Read all our other Golf coverage ahead of this week's events below here!

Course form and current stats by Andy Swales for Honda Classic

Course form and current stats by Andy Swales for Hero Indian Open

Steve Rawlings' tips Shubhankar Sharma for the Hero Indian Open

Steve Rawlings' tips both Sungjae Im and Harris English at the Honda

Steve Rawling's tries to find us a triple digit winner in his FindMe100

Matt Cooper likes the look of Shubhankar Sharma at the Hero Indian

Staked: £570
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