John Deere Classic 2026 First-Round Leader Tips: Dave Tindall's three to back up to 60/1

John Deere Classic weather forecast for Thursday

Rain is expected on the weekend but for round one it's hot and sunny with temperatures starting in the 80s and climbing into the mid-90s by late afternoon.

Wind speeds are mostly steady at around 9-12mph throughout Thursday although it could gust a little harder in the morning.

Hayden Springer shot a 59 in round one two years ago while 9-under 62 was the Thursday mark in 2022, 2023 and 2025. All four years produced solo leaders.

First Round Leader Bet 1: Emiliano Grillo @ 60/161.00

After Eric Cole landed the 50/151.00 last week, I did a little bit of research into first-round leader patterns given that he'd also topped the day one charts just two starts earlier.

I tweeted this: "Good recent evidence that first-round leads on the PGA Tour come in bunches. Checking over the last few weeks/months and you'll find these runs:

Cole, Spaun and Gerard - back-to-back FRLs
Clark and McCarty - 2 FRLs in 3 starts
Smalley - 2 in 4
Burns - 2 in 7
Hisatsune - 2 in 10
Theegala - 2 in 11".

So, leaning into that idea, let's open with a bet on Emiliano Grillo, who had a piece of the first-round lead in Canada just two starts ago.

The Argentine eventually slipped to 20th but showed his game was in good nick with a follow-up top 25 at the US Open (sixth after round three).

And if he's going to produce another hot start, this looks an ideal venue as Grillo has played the event just three times but finished runner-up in two of them (2022 and 2025). Last year he opened with a 65.

Grillo, who tees off at at 12:56 local from the 1st, takes the eye at 60s (1/4 Odds, 5 Places).

First Round Leader Bet 2: Aldrich Potgieter @ 50/151.00

What the heck, let's play with our new toy again and back another player with a '1' in their list of recent day one positions.

Aldrich Potgieter, also known the PGA Tour's longest driver, set the pace at the PGA Championship on his penultimate start thanks to a 67 while in his only outing since he finished eighth in the Canadian Open.

Last June he set out with a 62 in the Rocket Mortgage Classic so the South African has two 18-hole leads in his last 24 events.

Potgieter withdrew after round three of his John Deere debut last year but he'd started 67-66 to sit 13th at halfway. Ranked 31st in Par Breakers, hopefully he'll enjoy this test again.

He's also an afternoon starter at 12:23 from the 10th.

First Round Leader Bet 3: Doug Ghim @ 50/151.00

Doug Ghim can't really be classed as a recent first-round leader as he hasn't topped the charts yet in 2026 but the American has set the pace twice in his last 23 events.

The most recent was via a 60 in last November's RSM Classic while the second, significantly, was here at TPC Deere Run 12 months ago when he fired an opening 62.

Ghim has also been flexing his FRL muscles in recent times, starting out with a 65 in each of his last three events. They were good enough for day one positions of 11-7-7.

The 30-year-old, who is 5th in R1 Scoring Average this season, also has a nice local angle as his parents both live in Chicago (where Ghim was born).

He said last year: "Any time I come to the Midwest in general it's the style I am used to. I grew up playing tree-lined and bent rough, bent greens. It's always a welcome sight to come to Illinois, Indiana, Wisconsin, Michigan."

Ghim is my morning starter at 07:57 from the 10th.

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