Houston Open 2026: Dave Tindall's each-way picks from 28/1 to 60/1

Introduction to the Houston Open

The US Masters is coming rapidly into view and after this week's Houston Open and next week's Texas Open the much-anticipated first major of the season will be upon us.

The two-week build-up in the Lone Star State begins at Memorial Park - a long (7,475-yard) par 70 featuring five par 3s and three par 5s.

And with minimal rough, we're very much in bombs away territory. The big stick will be used frequently and driving distance is definitely a factor.

But while driving is more than just for show at Memorial, putting is very much for dough.

The last four winners - Min Woo Lee, Stephan Jaeger, Tony Finau and Jason Kokrak - all ranked in the top three for Strokes Gained: Putting.

The greens are overseeded Bermuda. They're surrounded by steep, shaved run-off areas after input from Brooks Koepka during a Tom Doak redesign in 2019. 

Bet 1: Stephan Jaeger @ 60/161.00

Stephan Jaeger knows exactly what to do on this course.

After 35th on debut at Memorial Park GC and ninth the following year, the German shot 69-66-66-67 to win by a shot in 2024. When defending last year, he again made his mark by firing a Friday 64 and two 67s on the weekend for 11th.

In his 2024 victory, Jaeger held off a bang-in-form Scottie Scheffler and then came out with this memorable quote: "He's been on a tear, so to kind of slay the dragon a little bit this week was amazing."  

Ahead of that win, Jaeger had posted top threes at the Farmers Insurance Open and Mexcio Open but gone through the Florida Swing with MC-44-MC.

This year he again has two strong performances so far - a fifth and a seventh - while once more struggling to begin with in Florida with a missed cut at the Cognizant and 62nd at The Players Championship.

But that seventh place came last week at the Valspar where Jaeger burst through the field on the weekend with rounds of 68-66.  That was two shots lower for the final 36 holes than winner Matt Fitzpatrick.

Bearing in mind what we're looking for this week, Jaeger ranked ninth for Driving Distance at the Valspar while in the last two events he's been 10th and 28th for SG: Putting. He's 46th for SGP on the season.

With five top 20s in his last seven starts in Texas (four are top 11s, including the win), he clearly thrives in this part of the world.

And given that we have five short holes this week, it's encouraging to see him rank second for Par 3 Scoring Average.

I'm pleasantly surprised to see Jaeger at 60s (8 places). 

Bet 2: Jordan Smith @ 60/161.00

Jordan Smith's talent should have given him more than two DP World Tour wins but at 33-years-old it's easy to say he's only just coming into his prime.

For comparison, let's look at Thomas Detry. The Belgian just couldn't get over the line in a DP World Tour event but last year (aged 32) he went and won the WM Phoenix Open by a staggering seven shots!

Smith is an elite driver of the ball and that has helped the man from Somerset make an instant impact in his first crack at the PGA Tour.

He ranks 19th for SG: Off The Tee in 2026 and 23rd for Driving Distance. Only five players are above him in the Greens In Regulation charts.

Smith, who was fifth in October's Alfred Dunhill Links in Scotland, ended 2025 with a run of 15-20-21 in three more DP World Tour events.

So far with PGA Tour card in hand, he's opened with a 64 before finishing 27th at The American Express, closed 68-66 for 16th in Phoenix, added 23rd at the Cognizant and then really ramped it up with third place at last week's Valspar Championship.

Perhaps there were some earlier clues that he had a good game for American soil.

Back in 2023, Smith somewhat unexpectedly made the top 20 in the US Open while his 39th in the US PGA (2024) is better than the four finishes he's posted so far in the Open Championship.

Speaking at the Valspar, he said: "Just really proud of myself. We struggled early on Friday and really had to dig deep, at one point I think we were on the cut line. So yeah, just really proud of myself of how we handled that situation and how we played this week and stuck it out.

"I'll be playing the next two in Texas, and then at the moment we're going back to the U.K. for a bit of time off. But, yeah, you never know what might happen."

That sounds like a man thinking he can still get into Augusta. He'd need to win or vault from his current world ranking of 65th into the top 50. His third place at the Valspar saw a leap of 30 spots.

Smith ranked 12th for Driving Distance, fourth Off The Tee and second Tee To Green at The Valspar while he also gained strokes on the greens for the third time in four tournaments.

Bet 3: Michael Thorbjornsen @ 28/129.00

The sky's the limit for Michael Thorbjornsen and lots in the betting community want to be on him when he delivers that first win.

Talent will out anywhere but this does look a particularly good course for him in that he can make the most of his prodigious power.

It's interesting to note that all Thorbjornsen's big strokeplay results so far - he already has a second, two thirds and a fourth - have come not on the back of another previous high finish.

Listing his results before a top 10, they read MC, 50, WD, MC, 41, 29, 31, 18.

In other words, he seems to be better when having something to prove, or chasing improvement.

Thorbjornsen could easily have been coming here with a big finish after a superb display at Sawgrass when second with a round to go.

He fell back after a Sunday 77 to end in 22nd but the upside of that is the hunger it will have created.

In Phoenix, he actually led the way after 15 holes of Sunday's closer before finishing third but all these final-round experiences are money in the bank.

Thorbjornsen was 16th at halfway (69-65) here last year and 39th at the finish but, for context, he arrived on the back of five missed cuts in his first seven starts of the season, including both of the last two.

It's a very different story this time and if he can make the putts - he has positive SGP figures in four of his last five starts so the signs are good - we could be witnessing the first of many PGA Tour titles for the 24-year-old.  

Now read Steve Rawlings' in-depth Houston Open preview

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