Golf Tips: Best bets for American Express and Dubai Desert Classic

• 39/140.00 Poston the pick in California for Steve

• 50/151.00 Montgomery can challenge says Dave

• 169/1170.00 low-scoring Lee should love the desert

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The American Express Tips and Predictions

The American Express: Poston the pick at 39/1

Steve Rawlings: "Rahm went off favourite 12 months ago and Kim was a 55.0 chance three years ago but this is a great event for massive outsiders.

"Swafford was matched at 350.0 when the market first opened two years ago and the two winners before Kim went off at 1000.0 and 500.0. And between 2008 and 2014, all seven winners went off at a triple-figure price!

"Multiple event winners are fairly common so previous winners are well worth considering closely...

"I'm far from convinced he's a fabulous price at around the 40.0 mark but I couldn't resist a small bet on the in-form two-time PGA Tour winner, J.T Poston, who sounds like he's looking forward to this week's tournament.

"Having sat right down in a tie for 81^st following a double-bogey at the third hole in round three at last week's Sony Open, a week after finishing an impressive tied fifth in The Sentry, and having played his first five holes on Sunday in level-par, Poston caught fire in round four, playing his last 13 holes in nine-under-par to finish sixth, beaten by two, and he's looking forward to taking the feelgood factor to California."

The American Express 2024 Each-way Tips: Picks from 50/1 to 150/1

Dave Tindall: "Taylor Montgomery was tied eighth in the RSM Classic and tied 13th at Waialae on Sunday. Stretch it back a little and he's fired in the 60s in each of his last 14 rounds.

"Of particular relevance at the Sony Open was that Montgomery finished 2nd for Strokes Gained: Approach (7.122), a key metric at this event.

"He actually admitted to finding the greens a little difficult to putt last year but the stats show Montgomery ranked 9th for SG: Putting that week while let's remind ourselves that he finished 2nd for SGP on the PGA Tour last season.

"There are some big names at the front of the betting - 6/1 Scottie Scheffler, 9/1 Patrick Cantlay, 9/1 Xander Schauffle and 20/1 Justin Thomas give the field some extra glow - but Montgomery is very capable of making a huge challenge at a venue he clearly likes."

The American Express 2024: Tournament and current form stats

Andy Swales: "The 156 professionals taking part will play one round at each course over Thursday, Friday and Saturday, with Dye's Stadium Course taking centre stage for the final 18 holes on Sunday.

"Dye's Stadium Course opened 1986, water is a prominent feature, with sizeable hazards on half of its holes. Is the most difficult of this week's three layouts...

"Patrick Cantlay 9/1, one of golf's better players yet to scoop a major title, averages 67.25 for his 16 rounds in this tournament. He has a best finish here of runner-up, plus two other T10s. The world No 6 tied-12th in his season-opening event in Hawaii."

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Dubai Desert Classic Tips and Predictions

Dubai Desert Classic: Fox fancied at 43/1 at the Emirates

Steve Rawlings: "Although the 2021 winner, Paul Casey, only ranked 24^th for Driving Distance, length off the tee has been key for years and big hitters tend to shine.

"Last year's winner, Rory McIlroy, who was winning the event for a third time, ranked fourth for DD, and the 2022 winner, Victor Hovland, ranked 13^th for DD, with Rory in third ranking first.

"The 2020 winner, Lucas Herbert, ranked ninth for DD with Dean Burmester and Adri Arnaus, who finished tied for third, ranking first and sixth.

"Monstrously long, Bryson DeChambeau, only ranked a curiously shot 26^th for DD when he won here five years ago but the six winners before him ranked 14^th, fourth, 10^th, first, fifth and fourth...

"In seven previous visits, last year's 20^th is his best effort so he doesn't boast a great bank of course form but as a big hitter who plays links and desert golf well, there's no reason to think he can't play well here.

"And it's perhaps worth noting that he was sitting 11^th with a round to go last year before a 73 on Sunday saw him slip down the leaderboard. I thought 44.0 was fair."

Dubai Desert Classic Each-Way Tips: Take 55/1 desert rat Rozner

Matt Cooper: "Those who thrive on the Majlis Course at Emirates have often also performed well at Dom Pedro and Abu Dhabi. That bodes well for Antoine Rozner who has finished eighth at the former and was 16th in his only start at the latter.

"Good finishers in the DDC also tend to boast solid course form, excellent credentials in the desert and they've also often got an Open top 20 finish in their record book.

"Rozner was ninth on debut at the Emirates and is three-for-three at making the cut. He's also four-for-four at playing four rounds in the Qatar Masters and he won it in 2021 at Education City.

"A few weeks before that, he'd been victorious in the Dubai Championship at Jumeirah's Fire Course in 2020, was fourth there on defence and was T11th in the DP World Tour Championship on the Earth Course last November (when second at halfway)."

Dubai Desert Classic First-Round Leader Tips: Three Selections from 66/1 to 100/1

Dave Tindall: "Scott Jamieson often hits the ground running and he showed that at the end of 2023 by being first-round leader in October's Qatar Masters and placing fourth after day one of December's Alfred Dunhill Championship.

"The quick start in Qatar hints at a liking for Thursdays in the desert and a brief search reveals it's a real thing.

"In Jamieson's last seven appearances in the UAE he's twice set the pace on day one. A 63 secured FRL honours in the 2022 Abu Dhabi Championship while a 65 put him on top at the Ras al Khaimah Championship a month later.

"As for this event, he's done his best work on day one as highlighted by a R1 scoring average of 69.83. He's been second and third after round one and, overall here, has ended the opening lap in the top 20 six times."

Find Me a 100 Winner: Hodges can get hot again in the desert

Steve Rawlings: "K.H Lee has event form figures reading MC-21-32-63-MC, but it might only be a matter of time before he improves on those numbers given it's an event that really should suit the low-scoring Korean.

"The 32-year-old birdie machine won the AT&T Byron Nelson back-to-back in 2021 and 2002 in 25 and 26 under-par so he has a penchant for going super-low and he also has form in the desert.

"Lee was second at the Phoenix Open in 2021 and he finished seventh in the Shriners Childrens Open as recently as October. He putted poorly last week at the Sony, where he finished 30^th, but he broke 70 on all four days and his iron play was on point."

Dubai Desert Classic 2024: Course and current form stats

Andy Swales: "Opened in 1988, the Majlis Course at Emirates is largely flat and located a few miles south of Dubai City centre. Designed by American architect Karl Litten, it was the first grass course to be opened in the Middle East.

"Water comes into play on eight holes, while the greens are reasonably tame and uncomplicated. Three years ago all 18 greens returned to their original dimensions, which resulted in a collective 33% increase regarding overall size. The first hole's putting surface increased by as much as 67%...

Rory McIlroy 10/3 will be keen to make up for last week's late blunder which cost him victory a few miles away at Dubai Creek. The world No 2 has finished inside the top 10 in each of his last 10 appearances at Emirates. These include a trio of titles in 2009-15-23.

"World No 15 Tyrrell Hatton 8/1 has made a satisfactory start to 2024 with finishes of 13th and 14th in Hawaii. His form at Emirates is pretty good too, with three T4s from his last six visits. And Thorbjorn Olesen 28/1, who tied-eighth on Sunday, has had a sprinkling of T10s at this week's venue."

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