Golf Tips: Best bets for Farmers Insurance Open and Ras Al Khaimah Championship

• Homa can make strong defence at Farmers

• 40/141.00 worth taking for English each-way bet

• 60/161.00 Pablo the pick at Al Hamra for Steve Rawlings

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Farmers Insurance Open Tips and Predictions

Expect Homa to put in a bold defence

Steve Rawlings: "This is one of the rare events where a fast start is far from essential and in the last ten years we've seen winners sit tied for 63^rd, 77^th, 90^th, 95^th and 113^th after round one.

"Reed, three years ago, was the first - first round leader to go on to win since 1996 and Tiger Woods (2008 and 2013) and Justin Rose five years ago, are the only halfway leaders to convert.

"Like Rose, Woods was never headed in 2008 and 2013, once he'd hit the front at halfway, and he was also in front after round three in 2003 but other than Reed in 2021. The only other third round leaders to go on to win this century are Phil Mickelson in 2000 and John Daly in 2004, and he needed to win a three-man play-off.

"The last eight pre-round figures are listed above but prior to that, Stallings was three back and trading in excess of 30.0 ten years ago, Snedeker trailed by seven strokes after 54 holes in 2012 (when Kyle Stanley lost having led after the first three rounds and having been matched in-running at 1.01), and Watney had been five back three years earlier.

"This is most definitely an event in which to take on the 54-hole leaders and Sundays offer up trading opportunities aplenty...

"The industry-best of 12/1 about the defending champion, Max Homa, looks a reasonable price so I couldn't ignore the 15.5 available on the exchange.

"The Californian has an incredibly strong record in his home state, having won the Genesis Invitational and the Fortinet Championship (twice), as well as this event and as an added fillip, the Fortinet is not the only title he's won twice.

"Homa has a habit of playing well in the same events and in addition to successfully defending the Fortinet in 2022, he's a two-time winner of the Wells Fargo Championship (2019 and 2022)."

Each-way Tips from 40/1 to 90/1

Dave Tindall: "Harris English played both Hawaii events and posted 14th in The Sentry and 10th at the Sony Open where he rounded off with a 64.

"In the first of those, he revealed: 'I didn't play a whole lot this fall, but kind of playing the back end with the RSM and Grant Thornton (pairs event) I thought was a good prep for getting ready for this week and the start of the West Coast. I'm going to play a lot here out west and thought I would get right back to it.

"'Not really thinking about much in my golf swing right now. It's been great. These past couple weeks these tournaments have been some of the best I've driven it, which is great for me and can give me a lot of chances to get that putter in the hand.'

"English finished 1st and 3rd respectively for SG: Approach in his two August starts (St Jude and Wyndham) before losing some sharpness with the irons. He returned to positive SGA figures at the Sony and if he can hit those same August levels here he'd be pretty much the full package. With four top 12s in his last six starts in California, this is a good area for him so take the 40s."

Find Me a 100 Winner: Past winner Rose can contend again

Steve Rawlings: "Justin Rose was all the rage last time out at the Sony Open after he'd signed off The Sentry with a 12-under-par 61, and those that backed him at Waialae at around 40.0 would have been getting excited when he opened the event with a pair of birdies, which resulted in his price plunging to just 13.5.

"That was as good as it got for Rose that week though. He finished up trailing a disappointing tied 57^th and as a result, here we are two weeks later and despite his fine record at Torrey Pines, he's available at three times the price he was at the Sony.

"Like many, Rose took his time to warm to this venue but after eight visits without a single top-20 finish, he's produced course form figures that read 4-8-1-MC-MC-6-18, and that includes his missed cut at the US Open here in 2021.

"Rose will be feeling good about himself with just a week to go before he defends his AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am title and he's been overlooked at 120.0 at a venue that suits."

Course and current form stats

Andy Swales: "This is a tournament where previous course form does tend to carry greater weight than at many venues. Among those who have performed well here in the past are Keegan Bradley 25/1, Jason Day 28/1, Tony Finau 20/1 and Sung Jae Im 20/1.

"Day's record is particularly impressive, with two victories, two other podiums and seven T10s in all. Finau has posted five T10s since 2017, and has a best finish of tied-2nd three years ago. Meanwhile Bradley, who was runner-up in 2023, was second two weeks' ago in Hawaii.

"As for Sung-Jae Im, he's finished 6th-4th in his last two visits to Torrey Pines. And the Korean opened his 2024 campaign with a tied-5th at Kapalua three weeks' ago."

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Ras Al Khaimah Championship Tips and Predictions

Prolific Pablo far too big at 60.059/1

Steve Rawlings: "As long as it's not too windy, up with the pace is usually the place to be in the desert and that's been the case in the last four events here.

"Ryan Fox and Adri Arnaus both won wire-to wire and Hojgaard and Gavins were in the van throughout. Gavins sat tied for 11^th and four off the lead but he trailed by one at halfway and by two through 54 holes and Hojgaard trailed by only two strokes after rounds one and two and he was three in front with a round to go...

"Pablo Larrazabal has often telegraphed his numerous successes, so I'm completely baffled as to why he's been allowed to drift out to 65.0 following his excellent fourth last week in Dubai.

"His Abu Dhabi Championship win almost exactly ten years ago came at one of the few Harradine designed tracks we encounter, he has form in Doha (also Harradine), and he's also played nicely at the Portugal Masters, an event that correlates nicely with this one, so it's no surprise to see he was third here in the Ras al Khaimah Classic two years ago.

"Pablo is in search of his fifth DP World Tour title in his last 45 starts, he's just turned 40, and he's expecting his first child."

"So, we've got a prolific winner with course form, current form, correlating course form, two inspiring major lifetime events, both recent and future, and he's available at 60.0. Win or lose that's miles out for me and if you're laying him at that price, good luck. You might need it!"

Each-Way Tips: 55/1 Hillier can hit the heights

Matt Cooper: "At first glance, a desert course and a parkland track in Northern Ireland don't scream much but Jordan Smith won at Al Hamra and has three top sevens at Galgorm, Jens Dantorp won at Al Hamra and nearly won at Galgorm, Ryan Fox has won at both, while Daan Huizing, Victor Perez, Lucas Nemecz and Adrian Meronk have land top finishes at the distant pair. And where had Gavins won before here 12 months ago? Galgorm Castle!

"Daniel Hillier was third at Galgorm back in 2021 ahead of being an impressive rookie in 2023 when landing a trio of top fives in just four starts during the summer, including a first victory at The Belfry.

"In October he started with a pair of 65s to have a two shot lead in the Qatar Masters and he was also 42nd in this tournament last year when he had been 13th with 18 holes to play.

"He ranked top 20 Off the Tee that week and he ranked first (gained 4.9 strokes) just two weeks ago at Dubai Creek, as he also did in Qatar. Good, long drivers like Al Hamra and Hillier can join their number."

First-Round Leader Tips: Picks from 66/1 to 80/1

Dave Tindall: "Andy Sullivan tipped at 100s, did us another big favour last week when dead-heating for first place at the Dubai Desert Classic after a first-round 67. He added a second 67 on day two before a weekend collapse but all that does is probably focus him and inflate his FRL odds once more, this time to 80/1.

"Reading back from last week in Dubai, these are Sullivan's first-round scores in his latest five starts: 67, 68, 67, 66, 67. They've been good enough for Thursday leaderboard positions of 1st, 10th, 3rd, 3rd, 7th.

"Also a first-round leader in the ISPS Handa Championship last April and second twice after 18 holes in two of his next four starts, the obvious negative is that he's missed two cuts out of two here at Al Hamra.

"There may be something in that but it's overriden by his habitual fast starting so let's give him a spin once again. Sullivan sets out at 07.40am from the 1st tee."

Course and current form stats

Andy Swales: "Three players with a strong course history are Adri Arnaus 66/1, Zander Lombard 20/1 and Jordan Smith 16/1.

"Arnaus won here on the Challenge Tour in 2018, since when he's added a brace of T10s in DP World Tour events. Lombard's last two visits have each yielded podium positions, and the South African's recent form is pretty impressive too.

"He tied-6th at Dubai Creek two weeks' ago, and has not slipped outside the top-25 in any of his last six starts on the DP World Tour.

"Smith, meanwhile, was runner-up at Al Hamra in 2022, having earlier won a Challenge Tour event at the same venue. The Englishman opened 2024 with an excellent 4th at Dubai Creek earlier this month."

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Read the Punter's in-play blog for the latest from both of this week's events