Find Me a 100 Winner: Past winner Rose can contend again

Golfer Justin Rose
Justin Rose on his way to winning at Pebble Beach last year

Our man's picked out two outsiders at this week's PGA Tour event - the Farmers Insurance Open...

  • Two longshots chanced at 120.0119/1 and 170.0169/1

  • Read my Ras al Khaimah Championship preview here

  • Read my Farmers Insurance Open preview here

  • One of last week's fancies, 170.0169/1 shot, KH Lee, headed into the weekend at The American Express sitting alone in third place and just two strokes adrift of the halfway leader, Sam Burns. However, the Korean was disappointing over the weekend, slumping to tied 25th, and so he didn't get matched at the first lay target of 10.09/1.

    Moving on, although we have two events to choose from this week, I'm concentrating my efforts on the Farmers Insurance Open on the PGA Tour.

    It hasn't been a great event for longshots so I've only got two selections, but I couldn't find anyone at the Ras al Khaimah Championship that I really liked.

    I toyed with the Spanish pair, Adrian Otaegui and Jorge Campillo, who have both been matched at 100.099/1, but I couldn't really make a robust case for either.

    We're also had eight events into the 2023-24 DP World Tour season and we're yet to witness a triple-figure priced winner, whereas the first three winners on the PGA Tour this year have gone off at 230.0229/1 (Chris Kirk) and 1000.0999/1 (Grayson Murray and Nick Dunlap).

    Justin Rose @ 120.0119/1

    Huge movements in price about individual players from one event to the next aren't uncommon but they're often a little surprising and that's certainly the case with the 2019 Farmers Insurance winner - Justin Rose.

    The Englishman was all the rage last time out at the Sony Open after he'd signed off The Sentry with a 12-under-par 61, and those that backed him at Waialae at around 40.039/1 would have been getting excited when he opened the event with a pair of birdies, which resulted in his price plunging to just 13.5.

    That was as good as it got for Rose that week though. He finished up trailing a disappointing tied 57th and as a result, here we are two weeks later and despite his fine record at Torrey Pines, he's available at three times the price he was at the Sony.

    Like many, Rose took his time to warm to this venue but after eight visits without a single top-20 finish, he's produced course form figures that read 4-8-1-MC-MC-6-18, and that includes his missed cut at the US Open here in 2021.

    Rose will be feeling good about himself with just a week to go before he defends his AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am title and he's been overlooked at 120.0119/1 at a venue that suits.

    Back Justin Rose (2us) @ 120.0119/1

    Bet now

    Taylor Moore @ 170.0169/1

    As highlighted in the preview, it's hard to get a handle on what's needed here statistically, but the vast majority putt really well so it's perhaps not surprising that last year's Valspar Championship winner, Taylor Moore, finished as high as 11th on just his second sighter. Although his flatstick numbers weren't as strong as they usually are...

    The 30-year-old Texan missed the cut on his first visit to Torrey Pines two years ago so last year's performance was a big improvement, and the stats suggest there could be more to come.

    Taylor Moore at the Rocket Mortgage Classic 23.jpg

    Known for his prodigious length off the tee and his smooth putting, it's interesting to see that he dialled it in a bit 12 months ago and he didn't putt especially well either.

    He ranked only 49th for Driving Distance but ninth for Driving Accuracy and he ranked 23rd for Putting Average and only 43rd for Strokes Gained: Putting.

    Now a winner on the PGA Tour, Moore could really kick on and his tied 25th at The Sentry last time out was a decent enough start to build on.

    Back Taylor Moore (2us) @ 170.0169/1

    Bet now

    Read my Farmers Insurance Open preview here

    *You can follow me on Twitter @SteveThePunter


Staked: 12.5 Us

Returned: 8 Us

P/L: -4 .5Us

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