Find Me a 100 Winner: Outsider picks on both main events

Golfer Dylan Frittelli
Dylan Frittelli has been playing well just off the pace
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Looking for a miracle bet on either of this week's golf events? Paul Krishnamurty has three recommendations at odds from 200/1 upwards...

"Maverick Antcliff hit over 90% of greens in regulation, ranked 18th for strokes gained: tee to green and eighth for strokes gained: approach...Somewhere soon, those kind of numbers will yield a big finish"

There's a great deal of guesswork required this week, because both the European and PGA Tour events are using courses that we haven't seen for more than a decade at this level.

First to The Belfry, host to the one-off UK Championship and best-known as a Ryder Cup venue. This is an exciting, risk-reward set-up and in that respect, may produce something similar to Celtic Manor. Check out the full lowdown via Steve Rawlings' comprehensive preview.

The Belfry may suit up and coming bombers

As I remember it, The Belfry doesn't especially suit a particular type of player. Steady and few mistakes can get the job done if capitalising on the scoring holes. Equally though, I can recall two massive shocks from up and coming big-hitters.

When Henrik Stenson won the Benson and Hedges Invitational in 2001, he was virtually unknown. In 2006, Johan Edfors was a huge outsider for the British Masters. Back then, I'd have characterised Edfors as powerful, talented, wild and erratic.

Back Maverick Antcliff 0.5u each-way @ 200/1 (1/5 odds, seven places)

With those in mind, I'm taking an each-way punt on a capable yet inexperienced type with similar credentials. Maverick Antcliff won three times in China last year so evidently has plenty of ability and whilst results from a few European starts are so far ordinary, the potential in his long game has been evident.

In placing 31st last week, the young Australian hit over 90% of greens in regulation, ranked 18th for strokes gained: tee to green and eighth for strokes gained: approach. He averages 310 yards off the tee. Somewhere soon, those kind of numbers will yield a big finish and this track might prove just the ticket.

Smaller FedEx field offers promise for place bets

FedEx Cup events - elite fields where recent form really counts - are, to be honest, not really fertile territory for the purposes of this column. On the plus side there are only 70 players so place targets are perfectly plausible.

Olympia Fields hasn't been seen at the top level since the 2003 US Open. Again check out Steve's preview for a comprehensive overview. Jim Furyk's victory on that occasion might encourage thoughts that a short-hitter can win but the set-up is extremely long.

Prowess off the tee preferred

Back Brendan Steele 1u @ [350.0]
Place order to lay 10u @ [25.0]

Back Brendan Steele for a Top 10 Finish 1u @ [13.0]

I'd prefer to focus on good drivers and Brendan Steele always fits that description. 23rd on the tour for total driving, Steele played well enough when carrying our cash at similar odds at the PGA, without ever looking like doing much better than 22nd.

He's also got credentials this season from either side of lockdown - second at the Sony, sixth at the Honda plus a pair of top-13 finishes. I reckon he's most effective playing a tough test like this.

Frittelli to thrive again in Illinois

Back Dylan Frittelli 1u @ [360.0]
Place order to lay 10u @ [25.0]

Back Dylan Frittelli for a Top 10 Finish 1u @ [15.0]

Dylan Frittelli won on his last visit to Illinois at the 2019 John Deere Classic. I can't see any obvious correlation with this course but he's got enough good recent form in the bag to warrant consideration at huge odds.

Prior to missing last week's cut, he'd finished no worse than 31st in his last four starts and earlier was eighth at the Heritage. For all of those he ranked in the top-20 for strokes gained: off the tee, and he's top-20 for both accuracy and gir among these since lockdown. A winner on four continents already, Frittelli strikes me as likely to progress further.

Two others made the shortlist. Talor Gooch is playing well, making the top-25 on four of his last six starts, and offers trading potential at [430.0].

First reserve though is Maverick McNealy at [520.0]. He has a great amateur record on the course and was making solid strides prior to lockdown. I suspect he may be best on courses where avoiding bogey is at a premium. That is the case here.


Follow Paul on Twitter @paulmotty

Profit/Loss

2020: -50 units
2019: +70.5 units

Paul Krishnamurty,

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