FedEx St. Jude Championship 2025: Dave Tindall's each-way picks from 28/1 to 40/1

• 40/141.00 Daniel Berger is a double winner at TPC Southwind

• 28/129.00 Hideki Matsuyama can make a bold defence 

• [40/1] Wyndham Clark has strong Ryder Cup incentive

• Read Steve Rawlings' preview of the tournament here

Introduction to the FedEx St. Jude Championship

That went quick. After a flurry of Majors, Signature events and regular PGA Tour fayre, we've arrived at the FedEx Cup Playoffs.

Once set at 125, this is the third straight year when the three-tournament sprint to the line starts with a field of 70. Well, it's 69 actually as Rory McIlroy has  chosen to sit this one out.

Germany's Matti Schmid grabbed the final slot, his 31st place at the Wyndham Championship last week just enough to edge out Davis Thompson (71st) and Gary Woodland (72nd).

A reminder of how it works. The top 50 after this week advance to the BMW Championship at Cave Valleys Golf Club in Maryland and straight after that the final 30 battle it out for seriously big money in the Tour Championship at East Lake.

TPC Southwind is filled with doglegs and water over its 18 holes. The par 70 measures 7,288 yards and has the unusual mix of Zoysia fairways and fairly quick Bermuda greens.

A par 70 with Bermuda throws up some obvious course correlations and Steve Rawlings in his preview notes that Matsuyama, Fabian Gomez, Justin Thomas and David Toms have won at both TPC Southwind and Waialae Country Club (Sony Open).

Three of the last five winners of this event ranked in the top five for Strokes Gained: Approach while Par 4 stats are worth checking too.

The last three winners all shot 8-under on the Par 4s, ranking them third (Matsuyama), Lucas Glover (T1st) and Will Zalatoris (second) in that category.

Based in the south, typical weather conditions are warm and humid, and temperatures will hit the 90s on all four days. 

Bet 1: Back Daniel Berger @ 40/141.00

Scottie Scheffler is 11/43.75 to follow up his ruthless Open win with another victory here. It might be the best bet of the week or it might not. He was fourth last year but, interestingly, had never bettered 14th in his other six starts.

Course form certainly seems worth logging. Last year's winner, Matsuyama, had finished runner-up on his penultimate start at TPC Southwind while Glover took the trophy in 2023 having been third 12 months earlier.

And if we're focusing in on past exploits at the course, the one who jumps off the page is Daniel Berger.

The American lifted the title on his first two starts at Southwind, shooting 13-under in 2016, and then defending with 10-under in 2017.

Shock, horror, he missed the cut in 2018 but then followed that with second in 2020 and fifth in 2021.

Berger hasn't played here since then but will surely be relishing a return having finished 30th in the regular season FedEx Cup standings.

That combination of top 30 and course form suggests he should be well fancied but there's 40/141.00 on offer.

It's due to some rather lacklustre looking form in June and July but that came on courses that didn't really suit.

And, to be honest, 30th in the Open Championship (70-68 on the weekend) was pretty decent.

We're back on Bermuda greens here and this is where Berger can excel again.

On such grass, he was runner-up in Phoenix and third at the RBC Heritage while in March he enjoyed a trio of top 25s on the Florida Swing. Wind back to November last year and Berger was runner-up at the RSM Classic.

He ranks 11th in Approach this season which is ideal and 23rd in Par 4 Scoring Average.

"The greens feel like I'm just at home and, you know, I love the bermuda," he once said of these Southwind surfaces.

A return to them will hopefully spark Berger back into action after some positive signs at Royal Portrush.

Bet 2: Back Hideki Matsuyama @ 28/129.00

Hideki Matsuyama had a two-win season in 2024, banking an early victory on the West Coast Swing and then adding this title in August. And, at the odds, I fancy backing a repeat performance.

The Japanese star got 2025 off to a flyer when shooting 35-under to win The Sentry by three but, weirdly, hasn't had a top 10 since.

It's why he's been floating around at slightly confusing, no-man's land odds for quite a while now.

On the one hand, such prices seemed to offer value for a player of his talent (11-time PGA Tour champion) and yet they've simultaneously reflected his rather modest displays.

But Matsuyama's latest results can certainly be spun positively as they hint at something. Rumbling noises that could foretell another breakout performance.

In his last three starts, the 2021 Masters champion has finished 13th at the Rocket Classic, 16th at Royal Portrush after an opening 74 and 19th in last week's Wyndham Championship.

Matsuyama's stats show him ranking first (Rocket Classic) and fifth (Wyndham) for SG: Approach on his last two starts on American soil.

He's also gained strokes with the putter in his last four tournaments (eight of his last nine if going further back) while he ranks 23rd in Par 4 Scoring.

Finally, if you're concerned about him being the defending champion and all that entails, he once defended in Phoenix so there is a precedent.

In summary, Matsuyama has left enough clues for a punt. If he's challenging on Sunday, it can come as no surprise.

With course form of 1-16-2-20 and three top 20s in his last three PGA Tour starts, he's well worth a play at 28/129.00 (8 Places).

Bet 3: Back Wyndham Clark @ 40/141.00

Wyndham Clark seems to be best-known at the moment as the guy who whacked in a locker at Oakmont Country Club.

Understandably, he's keen to put that sorry episode behind him and, in fairness, he's been doing a pretty good job of it in recent weeks.

Clark put in a fine display to finish 11th in the Scottish Open and delivered an even better one at Portrush where he overcame a poor 76 in round one to climb to fourth after firing 66-66-65 over the final 54 holes.

Bryson DeChambeau did something similar and got a load of headlines and praise. Clark deserves the nods of recognition too.

Straight off the back of that impressive Royal Portrush revival he posted 12th in the 3M Open so, quite simply, he's one of the form horses going into this week.

Clark is being fuelled by a burning desire to get back on the US Ryder Cup team and he's certainly doing enough to catch skipper Keegan Bradley's eye.

This week represents another chance and seventh place last year shows it's a canvas he can paint on.

Even his other two finishes here are worthy of mention. Clark was only 66th in 2023 but that was due to one really bad round, while on debut in 2022 he opened with a trio of 67s to sit seventh with 18 holes to play before sliding to 28th.

Adding to his case is some really impressive approach play.

Clark relied on short game to do well in the Scottish Open but in The Open he ranked 5th for SG: Approach while he was third for SGA at the 3M Open.

*You can follow me on Twitter @DaveTindallgolf

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