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Min Woo Lee can take advantage of his great form
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Lucas Herbert has a superb course record
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Finland's Sami Valimaki can go again in the Middle East
I revisited my preview of the 2021 edition of the Dubai Desert Classic ahead of this week's return to the Emirates Golf Club.
"There's a risk," I wrote, "with my continuing support of Victor Perez that I'm turning into a character from The Last of the Summer Wine - a batty old man repeating himself until most folk stop listening."
Two years on, not much has changed in my world (I'm arguably battier and repeating myself more often) but it was no bad thing in the case of Perez who was last week's headline pick ahead of his victory in the Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship - a nice start to the year!
The DP World Tour's Desert Swing now moves across the UAE from a layout relatively new to the circuit (Yas Links) to one well-established - indeed, but for two renewals, it has been a constant since 1989.
The 7,428 yard, par 72 Majlis Course is popular with the players. It features a slightly odd split scorecard with the front nine playing to a par of 35 and the back nine 37.
As Steve Rawlings notes in his preview the front nine tends to be a tougher examination and the overall test tends to favour players who are on the longer side with driver in hand.
I've always felt that the back nine's nature lends itself to bold operators who, when they get on a roll, enjoy keeping the pedal to the metal.
It's a consequence of there being three par-5s and that the short par-4 17th can be attacked from the tee box.
It suits an aggressive approach, commitment to attacking lines and taking dead aim at pins: last year's winner Viktor Hovland, for example, finished birdie-eagle-birdie.
Another key factor can often be the wind. In 2020 eventual winner Lucas Herbert and the man he beat in extra holes Christiaan Bezuidenhout both carded best-of-the-day 68s, two of only four sub-70 scores on a day that tested the late starters (only one of the 12 players T12th or better after three rounds broke 74 and he signed for a 72).
Main Bet: Min Woo Lee 1pt each-way @ 22/1
It would be entirely understandable if Min Woo Lee had tossed and turned in bed a bit since missing a tiddler on the penultimate green last week.
Had he holed it, and still made birdie at the last, he'd have forced a play off.
But I also sense that the brother of LPGA star Minjee is unlikely to be tortured by what ifs.
He's on the rise, he's contending more or less every time he tees it up, he's confident, he'll be expecting more opportunities (it is golfers who rarely sniff wins who mostly dwell unhealthily on the missed chances).
Lee has finished in the top four in five of his last seven starts a run that includes third at the Open de Espana, third at the Andalucia Masters, fourth in the Australian PGA, third at the Australian Open and second last week.
What about his capacity to play the Majlis Course?
His debut two years ago was undoubtedly poor - two rounds of 75 to miss the cut - but he was in a rotten run of form at the time.
He's won in the wind at 13th Beach and The Renaissance Club; he's also finished eighth at Dom Pedro in the Portugal Masters, a course where Emirates experts are also known to shine; and he's been fourth in Dubai at Jumeirah Fire, plus landed two top 20s at Jumeirah Earth.
Next Best: Lucas Herbert 1pt each-way @ 28/1
Lee's fellow Aussie Lucas Herbert's victory in this tournament in 2020 was not a complete surprise.
Twelve months earlier he'd carded 69-63 to tie the halfway lead and landed seventh with weekend laps of 72-69.
His triumph started with a 69 before a pair of 71s left him six back and a share of 13th whereupon, as mentioned above, he coped better than the leaders with the blustery conditions. Since then he has added 22nd and 18th to his course log book.
Both before the win and afterwards he has performed well at venues which back up the notion that this is a good fit for him.
He was sixth at windy 13th Beach, third at the coastal resort Verdura, seventh in the Dunhill Links and second at Dom Pedro.
More recently he's twice been fourth at breezy Renaissance, seventh at windy Bay Hill and won the Bermuda Championship at Port Royal.
Herbert plays his best golf in these conditions and he's a superb putter which, again as Steve notes, is a great asset this week.
Final Bet: Sami Valimaki 1pt each-way @ /1
The column almost headed into the winter break as it emerged from it (with a win) when Sami Valimaki was our top pick in the Mauritius Open.
He was two clear of the field after a first round 62, still leading after 36 holes and still had hopes of a win heading into the final round but he'd lost his mojo.
Still, he finished 11th and added to second at the Joburg Open it made for a fine pre-Christmas start to the 2023 season.
Last week he was playing more good golf, opening with a 67 and closing with another 62 for 10th.
There's no arguing that his course record is poor (51st in 2021 and a missed cut 12 months ago) but the latter came flush in the middle of sustained poor form and this pick is really about clues allied to that promising form.
The clues come in the shape of a resort course win on Bermuda grass at the breezy Casa Greens in Casablanca on the third tier, a first DP World Tour win that was in the Middle East (Al Mouj in the Oman Open) and some decent efforts elsewhere in Dubai (13th at Jumeirah Fire and fifth at Jumeirah Earth)
I also quite like that he was fourth at Eichenried last summer. It's another course that has a conclusion that demands an attacking approach.
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