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AT&T Byron Nelson Each-Way Tips: Keep faith in Riley

Dave Tindall
09 May 2023
4:00 min read

Davis Riley can take victory

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The PGA Tour heads to Texas and Dave Tindall has three bets for this week's action at TPC Craig Ranch...

40/1 Davis Riley has strong form in Texas
50/1 big hitter Joseph Bramlett can thrive
100/1 Jimmy Walker has found form again

Main Bet: Davis Riley each-way @ 40/1

A week before the year's second Major - the US PGA Championship at Oak Hill - most of the top names have decided that a birdie-fest at the AT&T Byron Nelson isn't the ideal way to prep.

Jordan Spieth's absence is due to injury however, the local Texan hugely frustrated that a wrist injury won't allow him to contest an event close to his heart.

But Texas golf royalty is represented in the shape of Scottie Scheffler who heads the market at just 10/3.

The 2022 Masters champion has finished 47th (2021) and 15th (2022) in his two starts here at Craig Ranch and given the idea that he'll have one eye on next week, it's fairly easy to dismiss him at those odds.

TPC Craig Ranch - now a par 71 measuring 7,414 yards - was used for the Korn Ferry Tour Championship in 2008 and 2012 when Greens In Regulation looked the most important stat.

And the idea that iron play is the key to success was franked last year when five of the top six finishers ranked in the top seven for Strokes Gained: Approach.

The PGA Tour's SGA table is my first port of call, therefore, and that helps me land on Davis Riley. He ranks 25th in Strokes Gained: Approach this season.

The man from Mississippi, who went to college in Alabama, is always one to keep an eye out for in the southern States and that's why he was a popular pick at the Wells Fargo Championship in North Carolina last week.

A, let's face it, horrid putting performance cost him there but in back-to-back weeks on the recent Florida Swing he was 70th for SG: Putting at the Honda and 3rd for SGP seven days later in the Arnold Palmer Invitational.

If he can turn it around in similar fashion, the other pieces are in place.

Riley was ninth here on his course debut last year and that was after being down in 107th after 18 holes.

The American responded to that slow opener with consecutive rounds of 64 and closed with a 67 to secure his place in the top 10.

A fortnight later in Texas he finished fourth in the Charles Schwab Challenge at Colonial while Riley also showed his prowess in the Lone Star State by capturing the Korn Ferry's TPC San Antonio Championship in 2020.

A winner of the Zurich Classic of New Orleans alongside Nick Hardy just a few weeks ago, the two-time Korn Ferry Tour champion looks ready to grab his first individual victory on the PGA Tour.

Back Riley at 40/1.

Back Davis Riley each way @

40/1

Next Best: Joseph Bramlett each-way @ 50/1

Like Riley, Joseph Bramlett has already shown he can perform at TPC Craig Ranch after finishing seventh two years ago.

When he walked off the course to the flash interview area that Sunday, a reporter told Bramlett: "Looks like you'll land your best-ever finish on the PGA Tour."

He'd also posted 31st here in the 2012 Korn Ferry Tour Championship and again played all four rounds last year.

Bramlett gives it a real lash off the tee - he's averaged over 330 yards in Driving Distance in his last two events, ranking in the top five for DD both weeks - and that's a real advantage here.

He's 15th for DD on the season-long stats and also 26th for Strokes Gained: Tee To Green. So in terms of long game there are few better in the field this week.

Other plus points for Bramlett include another Texas top 10 when ninth at November's Houston Open.

And it's worth noting that he won the 2020 Korn Ferry Tour Championship in Indiana with 20-under. Low scoring is very much the requirement here.

The negative is the putter but he was 20th for Putting Average when posting tied 10th in the Mexico Open at Vidanta two starts ago and he's almost sure to give himself far more birdie putts to go at than most.

Bramlett will enjoy reaching for the driver time after time this week so, on a course that suits, take the 50s.

Back Joseph Bramlett each way @

50/1

Final Bet: Jimmy Walker each-way @ 100/1

Jimmy Walker's revival has been one of the lower-key stories on the PGA Tour in recent weeks but a heartening one for those who backed him in his pomp and have cheered him on ever since.

Walker won six times on the PGA Tour from 2013 to 2016, rounding off that golden streak with victory in the 2016 PGA Championship at Baltusrol.

After contracting Lyme disease in 2017, it's been a struggle but he's certainly showing some promising signs in 2023.

A 13th in the Farmers Insurance Open looked a bit like a flash in the pan given that it was surrounded by five missed cuts.

But starting with a 22nd in the Texas Open, Walker has reeled off four top 25s in individual play, the latest two a 15th in the Mexico Open and a 14th in last week's Wells Fargo Championship where he closed with a trio of 68s.

A hot putter has played a big part but he's recorded positive numbers in all five main Strokes Gained categories (Off The Tee, Tee To Green, Approach, Around The Green and Putting) in the last two events.

In other words, Walker's upturn in fortunes is based on solid foundations across the board.

He spoke in length about his struggles at the RBC Heritage where he opened with a pair of 65s before finishing 25th.

The upbeat part of that interview was this simple line: "Yeah, it's cool to be back. Maybe I have a chance to really do something special."

So why not this week?

Walker's problem has always been some wonky driving but this an easy driving week and the rough isn't as thick as usual.

And, of course, Walker is a Texas local. In his pomp, he was a winner of the Texas Open and a runner-up in this event when held at Four Seasons Resort.

Walker, once a top 10 player in the world rankings, can hopefully give us a good run at 100/1.

Back Jimmy Walker each way @

100/1

Recommended bets

Back Davis Riley each-way @ 40/1

Back Joseph Bramlett each-way @ 50/1

Back Jimmy Walker each-way @ 100/1

Staked: £790
Returned: £338.16
P/L: -£451.84

Previous:
2021/2022 P/L: -£315.35
2020/2021 P/L: +£1475.87
2019/2020 P/L: +£13.83
2018/2019 P/L: -£338.25
2017/2018 P/L: +£362.84
2016/2017 P/L: +£1179.89

New customers can earn £20 in free bets when they place a £5 bet on the Sportsbook after signing up. T&Cs apply.

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Prices quoted in copy are correct at time of publication but liable to change.

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AT&T Byron Nelson Each-Way Tips: Keep faith in Riley

40/1 Davis Riley has strong form in Texas

50/1 big hitter Joseph Bramlett can thrive

100/1 Jimmy Walker has found form again

Main Bet: Davis Riley each-way @ 40/1

Next Best: Joseph Bramlett each-way @ 50/1

Final Bet: Jimmy Walker each-way @ 100/1

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40/1 Davis Riley has strong form in Texas

50/1 big hitter Joseph Bramlett can thrive

100/1 Jimmy Walker has found form again

Main Bet: Davis Riley each-way @ 40/1

Next Best: Joseph Bramlett each-way @ 50/1

Final Bet: Jimmy Walker each-way @ 100/1

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