Match award interest
Fast-bowlers in this five-match series may soon be queuing up for neck massages. They are straining their sinews watching the ball sail high into the crowd. Seven times Chris Jordan and Saqib Mahmood were despatched. Any time pace length was bowled in game two it went the distance. So what is the lesson?
Well, as discussed in our match preview, game three will be hosted by a fresh surface. But if it is like its siblings, taking pace off will be a wise strategy.
That makes us consider spin bowlers as possible wagers. Now, on pure win rates the tweakers are all too skinny. Akeal Hosein at 13/5 for example to top for West Indies and Adil Rashid at 5/2 for top England.
So we start to look at the man of the match market. Rashid, a major threat, is surely a live runner after Moeen Ali took the gong in game two, thanks to decent bat and field work. Rashid looks very big at 17/1. That is until you realise he has just one win in 70 England appearances. An extraordinarily low number for a man of his calibre.
Liam Livingstone, though, is more in the Moeen mould. He whacks it, of course, and could win it on his own with the bat. But a wicket here and a mean over there might make the difference. At 8/1, he gives us 0.15% edge on career win rate.
Our man of the moment, Kieron Pollard, is also worthy of a mention. Like Livingstone he is dangerous with the bat but his willingness to turn his arm over and run his fingers across the seam could be crucial.
Only Chris Gayle and AB De Villiers have won more man of the match awards in all T20 than Pollard. He has 42 in 575 games. Sportsbook go 10/1 so on win rate it's not a wager but worthy of a mention.
Top bat wins/matches last 2 ½ years
Pollard 9/32
Lewis 6/26
Simmons 4/23
Hetmyer 3 t/31
Pooran 3/26
Hope 2/5
Chase 1/3
King 1 t/15
Fletcher 1/12
Russell 1/20
McCoy 1/11
Shepherd t/11
Hosein t/15 Top bowler wins/matches last 2 ½ years
Cottrell 6t/23
Holder 2 3t/21
McCoy 4 1t/11
Thomas 3 2t/13
Walsh 3 1t/22
Paul 2t/7
Hosein 2 t/15
Allen 1 4t/21
Russell 1 2t/20
Shepherd 1/11
Smith 1/4
T=ties
Pollard pollarded
Staying with Pollard, our edge on him being top West Indies bat is disappearing before his eyes. Not because big runs have meant the oddsmen have cottoned on, though.
Pollard has been chopped from 15/2 to 5/1 to 9/2. And for what? He has scored only a single in the series.
It is frustrating because he should at least be staying at that 5/1 mark. Still, there remains a massive 10% swing in our favour from win rate to Sportsbook's implied probability at the odds.
If the trend for lower-order hitters taking the spoils continues, prices of interest include Liam Dawson at 50s. Fabian Allen at 25s and Odean Smith at 33s. But those are 'eye' agers rather than statistical edge.
Top bat wins/matches last 2 ½ years
Roy 6/23
Moeen 3/21
Livingstone 2/12
Vince 1/6
Banton 1/11
Morgan 1/34
Jordan 1/33
Rashid 0/33
Top bowler wins/matches last 2 ½ years
Jordan 5 2t/32
Rashid 5 6t/31
Mahmood 1 t/10
Moeen 1/20
T=ties
The ultimate Pakistan Super League preview on Cricket...Only Bettor
Recommended bets
(1pt) Back Kieron Pollard top WI bat 5.509/2
(0.5pts) Back Liam Livingstone man of match 9.08/1
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Ed Hawkins P-L
2022: +3.9pts
2021: +29.41pts
2020: +5.91pts
2019: +37.25pts
2018: +23.53pts
2017: +12pts
2016: +18.1pts
2015: +38pts
2014: +31.5pts
2013: +25pts
Based only on available prices. Does not include back-to-lay in-running advice or commission rate. Figures 2013-2016 on 1pt level stakes. Includes Hawk-Eye column p-l