Hawkeye on West Indies v England First T20: Pretty Pollard unmissable

Little to beat

By the end of the T20 series between West Indies and England we're either going to be cracking open the rum in celebration or raiding the bargain booze bin for something nasty to forget all about it.

If the formbook holds, then it should be the former. Kieron Pollard will represent an outstanding wager in each of the five matches to top score for West Indies.

Pollard has an extraordinary strike rate in the market in the last two-and-a-half years. He has won nine times in 30. It is a record which should mean he is at least next in line in the betting after the openers. Instead, the layers are swayed by where he will bat (probably No 5, maybe as high as No 4).

Sportsbook go 15/2. That is an implied probability rate of 11.8%. Our figures suggest he deserves way more respect. The formbook gives him a 30% chance. How fitting that when this column returns for 2022 it is greeted with one of the biggest swings discussed.

Pollard has little to beat at the best of times. It is arguable that these are the worst of times. Coach Phil Simmons has lamented the lack of domestic talent to pick from.

There is no Evin Lewis, for example. Lewis was the one legitimate fear to downing the Pollard gamble. With six wins he is next best on that win rate chart for West Indies. It is a major boost that he is not playing.

There are seven batters the traders rate more likely to top than Pollard. Seven. It is a guarantee that at least two of them will not play. Pollard's dominance is perhaps best highlighted by adding up all of those seven hitters' wins over the same study period. It comes to just seven.

Top bat wins/matches last 2 ½ years
Pollard 9/30
Lewis 6/26
Simmons 4/23
Hetmyer 3 t/31
Pooran 3/24
Hope 2/3
Chase 1/3
King 1 t/13
Fletcher 1/12
Russell 1/20

Top bowler wins/matches last 2 ½ years
Cottrell 6t/21
McCoy 4 1t/11
Thomas 3 2t/13
Walsh 3 1t/22
Paul 2t/7
Hosein 2 t/13
Allen 1 3t/19
Russell 1 2t/20
Shepherd 1/9
Smith 1/3
T=ties

Roy the boy

England's top-bat winner is harder to find because there is no reliable guide to fall back on. As discussed in our series preview, this is an experimental line-up.

Jason Roy, understandably, is a fair favourite at least in terms of a guaranteed start as opener, coming into the clash off the back of a monster hundred in warm-up.

Sportsbook are taking a chance therefore boosting him to 7/2. It provides a 1.6% edge. It is one of the few times since Roy's career blossomed at this level that you can get with him at a wrong price.

What's not to like? Tom Banton is probably toppy, too. It is rare to get 4/1 about an opener. Liam Livingstone is favourite at 3/1. Moeen Ali is right to be at 10/3 because he could bat as high as No 3. But the only man guaranteed of his position in the order is Roy.

Top bat wins/matches last 2 ½ years
Roy 5/21
Moeen 3/19
Livingstone 2/12
Vince ¼
Banton 1/9
Morgan 1/32

Top bowler wins/matches last 2 ½ years
Jordan 5 2t/32
Rashid 5 6t/31
Mahmod 1 t/9
T=ties

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