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Oval underrated to beat rivals
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Not even close on head-to-head
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Final spot awaits
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Superchargers hope to steal in
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Buttler could enjoy Leeds track
Oval Invincibles v London Spirit
Monday 25 August, 18:30
TV: Live on Sky Sports
Oval Invincibles v London Spirit - The Hundred Tips
A win for Oval Invincibles puts them in the final. Defeat, however, would mean a semi-final berth so long as one of Northern Superchargers and Trent Rockets win their final game.
Being forced into the play-off would feel like something of a disaster for Invincibles, who have been far and away the better team. They hammered Rockets, for example, and were a little unfortunate to get on the wrong side of the toss against Superchargers in Leeds.
That defeat came last time out and there does seem to have been an overreaction. It is a major surprise to see Oval as big as 1.705/7 on the Exchange against an opponent which has shown more mettle than expected but is, essentially, pretty limited. Spirit have won only one of eight London derbies.
Another significant factor here is home advantage. Invincibles, almost, live up to their name with nine wins in eleven and one tie. They really should be too strong for a Spirit side which have nothing to play for.
They have picked up in form but Jamie Smith has been the catalyst. Get him cheaply and Oval will reckon they have the game. They will not be worried by the likes of David Warner, Kane Williamson and Ollie Pope.
Smith is probably deserving of favourite status at 11/43.75 for top Spirit bat. There's not much to beat. His team runs could look toppy indeed if he falls cheaply. Unders 144.5 is tempting.
Sam Curran has been winning games with bat and ball. There is no finer all-rounder in this format in England yet the national team have seemingly made their peace with him not being in their plans. Sportsbook may have been fighting shy of his performance quote, unsure where to pitch it because of huge returns. The overs 41.5 at 5/61.84 isn't outrageous, though. He has beaten that in six of the last ten and has an average make-up over the same at 56. He returned 74 and 60 in his last two outings against Spirit.
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Northern Superchargers v Manchester Originals - The Hundred Tips
Northern Superchargers v Manchester Originals
Tuesday 26 August, 18:30
TV: Live on Sky Sports
They say that franchise coaches and management focus on winning the home games. Dominate at home, pick up the odd win on the road, qualify for the play-offs. Superchargers have done that. They have won all three in Leeds, benefitting from batting first twice on an absolute road.
Scores of 193 and 198 have shown where their strength lies. It could also be argued they are unproven or one-dimensional. What happens when they come up against a good team without the toss or pitch in their favour?
We are unlikely to get an answer here. The Originals have flopped again and faded badly. A heavy defeat by Phoenix on Sunday was a nadir and they are not expected to show more spirit in this one considering that was also a dead rubber. It is possible their batters were incredulous that a raging turner had been prepared with Noor Ahmad, their No 1 spinner, not even available.
Superchargers know they are destined for the play-off against Rockets after Oval won their final match against Spirit. If they do bat first, expect a big score. Over 160.5 total runs for Superchargers is obviously toss dependant but could look a very good wager indeed. The Exchange line may be set similar, though, for first-innings runs.
Jos Buttler should enjoy a flatter, truer surface. The England man can hit through the line instead of getting stuck on the crease with paddles and sweeps. He is much better when the shoulder twitches and he frees his arms. Returning to back him for top bat is not the worst strategy with Sportsbook's 13/53.60.
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