-
Brave can flip odds bowling first
-
Buttler Mr Reliable
-
Overton price watch
Manchester Originals v Southern Brave
Wednesday 23 August, 18:30
TV: Live on BBC, Sky Sports
Manchester Originals v Southern Brave team news
Originals have lost Ashton Turner to Australia duty. Wayne Madsen is a possible replacement. Or they could pick an extra bowler. In a change of the rules by the ECB, Originals will be able to sign extra players for the play-off and final. But with the Asia Cup, South Africa v Australia and CPL series taking place the talent pool is non existent.
Possible XI: Salt, Buttler, Holden, Evans, Walter, Madsen, J Overton, Harrison, Hartley, Tongue, Zaman
Brave have lost Tim David but had already lined up Mitchell Santner. It's hardly a like-for-like and tournament-long fears about their batting are unlikely to be allayed. Man for man with the bat it's a surprise they're still alive at this stage.
Possible XI: Allen, Conway, Vince, Du Plooy, Ackerman, Garton, Santner, Jordan, Ahmed, C Overtton, Mills
Manchester Originals v Southern Brave pitch report
Old Trafford is a bat first ground for the hosts at least. Originals have busted 160 or more twice and it would have been three times but for rain against Spirit. Five of the last nine have seen 145 or more breached.
But that brings us to Brave's skill. They're the meanest in the competition with the ball so a gung-ho race to go overs on the par line might not be wise. No rain is currently forecast.
Manchester Originals v Southern Brave match odds
Originals are 1.834/5 with Brave 2.1411/10. A win for Originals confirms them in the play-off. But they'll make it regardless barring an absolute disaster on net run rate. If Brave win, they should overhaul Welsh Fire to qualify.
We suspect the odds are correct. Although bowling economy is often favoured over batting power - and Originals are the quickest in the comp - Brave's batting leaves a lot to be desired.
Against batting teams like Invincibles and Rockets it is true that they did brilliantly to restrict them to 139 and 133 respectively bowling first. But they couldn't get up in the chase. There's an in-play strategy right there. Brave could well get as short as 1.758/11 bowling first.
Manchester Originals v Southern Brave player bets
Jos Buttler is boosted to 13/53.60 for top Originals bat. He's returned profit four times this season. James Vince has been boosted to 7/24.50. Watch out for Jamie Overton at 22/123.00 for Originals. He has one win this term and if the hosts decide they want to bolster their bowling in the absence of Turner, they could bat him at No 6.