Birmingham Phoenix v Welsh Fire The Hundred Tips: Expect big runs

• Phoenix too short

• Moeen strong on match-ups

• Edgbaston good for runs

Birmingham Phoenix v Welsh Fire
Thursday 10 August, 18:30
TV: Live on Sky Sports

Birmingham Phoenix v Welsh Fire team news

Phoenix have batting issues. Not that the sentence makes much sense. With a top four of Smeed, Duckett, Moeen and Livingstone there should be no problem whatsoever. Manchester Originals and Northern Superchargers have both made their unit look ordinary.

Probable XI: Smeed, Duckett, Moeen, Livingstone, Smith, Mousley, Shadab, Milne, Richardson, Helm

Fire have been dealt a blow with confirmation that Shaheen Afridi and Haris Rauf will not be available for the play-offs. They need to make the most of them. Jonny Bairstow is expected to return. Ben Green is likely to miss out.

Probable XI: Bairstow, Wells, Clarke, Eskinazi, Abell, Phillips, Willey, van der Merwe, Rauf, Payne, Afridi

Birmingham Phoenix v Welsh Fire pitch report

In eight games at Edgbaston, six first-innings have busted 145 or more. Five of those were 150-plus. This is one of the most reliable batting wickets in the tournament. One would have more faith in Fire busting the 150 runs line likely to be around 1.910/11. No rain is forecast.

Birmingham Phoenix v Welsh Fire match odds

Phoenix are in desperate trouble with a defeat and two washouts. They badly need a win to kickstart their campaign. Another defeat will leave them a mountain to climb.

But this could be perfect opposition for them. They have an issue against spin and Fire have only Roelof van der Merwe in their line-up to take tweak. Against Originals Tom Hartley and Usama Mir worked in tandem to end their challenge.

There's also a suspicion that this Fire line-up is unbalanced. If Bairstow returns they've essentially picked four openers. The problem is that the match odds market is too on the ball. The 1.845/6 Phoenix is a hard sell, particularly if they have to chase with those first-innings scores in mind. At the break they could be odds-against.

Birmingham Phoenix v Welsh Fire player bets

Liam Livingstone has faced ten balls against Afridi, scoring nine and getting out twice. But against Rauf he has 51 from 19 for no outs. Moeen has 22 off 10 versus Afridi and 53 from 33 against Rauf. Neither have got him out. That may swing him as value for top Phoenix bat at 7/24.50. Bairstow is isntalled as 13/53.60 favourite for Fire.