England v Australia Second Ashes Test Player Tips: Back Cummins to cop at 5/2

• Aussie skipper to thrive at Lord's

• Openers may struggle

• Back Smith and Root for runs

England v Australia
Wednesday 28 June, 11:00
TV: Live on Sky Sports

Top England first-innings bat

It could be that the Lord's surface is a nightmare for batters. Two days out the pitch looked green and lush, the complete opposite of the Edgbaston wicket which James Anderson described as his kryptonite.

We are aware, then, of the possibility of runs coming from the lower order with the new ball potentially able to wreak havoc. Under Ben Stokes' captaincy, there is no win rate wager (see data below) for an England batter to cop at big prices.

Joe Root is a swerve on first-innings but not on second-innings win rates.

Harry Brook at 15/28.50 is in contention. We just have to swallow that measly study sample.

Root has been boosted to 5/16.00 by Betfair Sportsbook for a first-innings ton. On his two-year record he should be more like 10/34.33.

Top bat wins/matches under Ben Stokes captaincy

Brook 4/7
Pope 4/15
Bairstow 2/7
Root 2/13
Stokes 1/14
Crawley 1/14
Duckett 0/6

A dicey pitch does mean that Zak Crawley and Ben Duckett face their sternest examination yet in their fledling Test careers. Good luck if it's hooping around for this Aussie attack.

Crawley will go hard at the ball regardless of conditions and the 5/61.84 he goes under 21.5 has appeal considering he would have provided a winner on this wager 61% of times in his career.

Top Australia first-innings bat

To bet or not to bet Steve Smith? On win rate Smith is hugely overrated at 11/43.75 with a paltry one win in 21. On the law of averages, however, there will be those who reckon one is due.

If you do want to be with Smith the best way to do it may be for a first-innings fifty at 6/52.20. There's an edge (albeit small) on win rate in the last two years.

Usman Khawaja remains the standout at 10/34.33 but we do have to recognise that he is likely to face a more stern examination of that foot movement.

Top Australia bat wins/matches last two years

Khawaja 9/18
Head 5/19
Labuschagne 3/21
Green 1/18
Warner 1/19
Smith 1/21
Carey 0/21

Top Australia first-innings bowler

Pat Cummins was 6/42.50 for top Australia bowler in the first Test. He has drifted to 5/23.50 with Betfair Sportsbook. It could be the standout bet for the contest.

The Birmingham surface was ideal for Nathan Lyon. It was very Asian sub-continent and Cummins didn't even manage a wicket in the first innings.

Cummins remained menacing, though. In the second innings, he picked up four and it would be a major surprise if he wasn't among the wickets in the first-innings at Lord's. It is a solid wager.

Top Australia bowler 1st inns wins/matches last two years

Cummins 4 3t/17
Starc 3 2t/17
Lyon 4 4t/21
Hazlewood 1/5
Boland 1/9
Green 1/18

Top bowler wins/matches under Ben Stokes' captaincy

Robinson 2 t/8
Broad 2 2t/11
Anderson 2 t/12
Stokes 1 t/15

t=tie

Read Ian Bell on England and the second Test here