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England in danger of being frustrated
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Day 4 & 5 forecast is grim
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Variable bounce key
England v Australia
Saturday 22 July, 11:00
TV: Live on Sky Sports
Why did England slow up?
England are 1.865/6 favourites to beat Australia in the fourth Ashes Test. But they're also playing Mother Nature with a grim forecast their only opponent.
It is doubtful whether England will get the overs they need to mop up victory, which is a great shame in the context of the series. Damp squib is a most unfair eptithet for what should have been an epic the contest for the urn closing at The Oval next week.
It is particularly harsh on England, who hammered Australia with the bat and then got amongst them with the ball. Jonny Bairstow was left stranded on 99 as England amassed 592 at 5.4 an over. It was the innings which Australia finally succumbed to Bazball. Perhaps they thought it was a myth before. They now know its brutal reality.
If there is a bowler which optimisies Bazball it is Mark Wood. He smashed open Australia's second innings with three for 15, taking the crucial wicket of Steve Smith and then bouncing out Travis Head, who was patently scared of the searing pace. It was a crucial double-strike. Had Wood ended his spell without a victim Australia would have reckoned they were on course to survive and the odds would have been flipped the other way.
There is perhaps one small benefit to England being forced to bide their time with the weather. Wood will be able to be fit and firing after a decent break. But when he gets back on the pitch to wreak more havoc is the great guessing game.
Weather forecast
Day 4: According to the Met office, 90% chance of rain during playing hours apart from 80% at 13.00
Day 5: Met office predict a 90% chance at 10.00 and 80% at 13.00 and 16.00. The BBC forecast gives a 70% chance of rain throughout the day
How long do England need?
With Wood in such potent form it is, of course, respectful to the chaos of this series to think that England rattle through this Australia innings in double-quick time. But to root ourselves in reality, the truth could be that even with four wickets on day three England are not ahead of where they needed to be
England averaged a wicket every nine overs against Australia in the second-innings this series before the start of the third dig at old Trafford. The trend held up with four in 41.
If England were to be guaranteed another 50 overs they would be well justified at odds of 1.865/6. But does anyone truly believe they will get as many as that? They may get half that late on day five, in which case they need to bowl out of their skins. Harder to do when the pressure is on and time is running out. It is far from impossible but the rational conclusion is that they don't manage it. There's a clue in the runs lines which offer nothing to lay on Australia.
Mark Taylor on Sky Sports commentary said that England would need only two sessions to make seven chances. They only need to make six. But there's no evidence that they will get as long as that from the forecast above.
Unless the forecast is wrong for day four, then it looks a stone-bonking washout. At which point the draw price collapses. A wager, then, on the draw now at 2.1411/10 is the sensible choice.