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England as good as done
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Day 5 forecast is grim
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Possibility of play after 16.00
England v Australia
Sunday 23 July, 11:00
TV: Live on Sky Sports
England miss their chance
England are 4.30100/30 to beat Australia on day five suggesting an anti-climactic end to a series that, if it had been alive for next week at The Oval, would have firmly been classed in the epic category.
It's a shame that the action in Manchester appears destined to end in a draw, which was trading as low as 1.3030/100 at the close, particularly after England were afforded the opportunity to go close to wrapping it up, or even winning it, on day four.
The weather forecast had been dire overnight but there were suddenly breaks in the cloud which gave them the chance to have a tilt at Australia in perfect conditions. Had we known they would get as many as the 30 overs they did, we would have been nonplussed that come stumps they would not be on the very brink of a series-levelling win.
As it transpired England took just the one wicket and, to be frank, they were perhaps fortunate to get that. Joe Root snared Marnus Labuschagne, who crept almost unnoticed to a century, as the hosts were forced to bowl spin at both ends because of the gloom.
Their pace had attack had been previosuly oddly flat. Mark Wood said before the re-start that he was worried that there would be no reverse swing because the ball would get wet. He was right. Yet England still had perfect swing bowling conditions and variable bounce. They didn't create a sniff.
To continue the theme of anti-climax James Anderson was again powderpuff. It would be a surprise if he was picked for The Oval, possibly bringing to an end a stellar career in the most unceremonous of fashions.
Day five Old Trafford forecast
The day five forecast is dreadful again and it is widely accepted that the players may not be able to take the field to at least 16.00. Almost all weather apps and forecasters seem to be in agreement about that.
There may be enough time for England to raise themselves once more with play potentially going on until 19.30. But we're not betting them on to do so and it feels a bigger chance than the price available.
Remember that England averaged a wicket every nine overs in second innings this series. That means to keep up with their expected performance they would need to have Australia a minimum of seven down by this stage. And that despite England needing to outperform the average because of the weather.
Australia are only 61 behind and a fourth-innings, taking more time out of the Test, may be required. A stalemate will be a bitter pill to swallow for England and no doubt Australian celebrations at retaining the urn will be muted because they know they've been outclassed here.
If England feel hard done by they will remain hugely motivated for game five. As it stands, the 2.707/4 about a drawn Ashes series (ie an England win in south London) is likely to be significantly out of line with the starting odds.
*Don't miss Ed Hawkins' in-play guide for day five @BetfairExchange