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England could be dalyed on day three
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Short on runs an option
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Variable bounce key
England v Australia
Friday 20 July, 11:00
TV: Live on Sky Sports
Why did England slow up?
For the first time in this Ashes series, Australia were well and truly Bazballed. They said that England couldn't do it to the likes of Pat Cummins, Mitchell Starc and Josh Hazlewood. They were wrong.
Zak Crawley hit a memorable 189 off 182 balls as England rattled the scorebaord and Australia's cage on day two to surge into as short as the 1.75/7 region. If England go onto win this game, Crawley's innings will be one of the great Ashes knocks.
Such was the aggression and high scoring rate that Australia didn't know where to turn. They were changing the field every ball, players were asking skip Cummins what to do and they became sloppy and weary.
England closed with a lead of 67 on 384 for four. They are 1.981/1 favourites with the draw not far behind on 2.47/5. Australia, who have little interest in winning and their route to doing so is far from clear, are 11.521/2.
And yet the Test, and therefore the series, remains finely balanced thanks to something the protagonists can do nothing about: the weather.
If it is wrong, England should go on to win the Test and level the series. They can bat and bat and bat some more. But if it is right, or something close to right, they face a race against time to prevent Australia escaping with a draw.
As punters we're not sure who to believe. The BBC reckons that rain could delay play until lunch on day three and then on days four and five there is a 70% chance of rain during the playing hours respectively. The Met Office pretty much concurs on days three and four but is optimistic about day five with a lower percentage chance of rain at 40%.
England may be Met Office followers, then. After the rollicking by Crawley and co, they were strangley passive in the final hour despite Australia's bowlers exhausted and Starc off the field with a niggle.
From a run rate of almost six an over when Crawley was in, it dipped to under 5.5. Notcieably, there was considerable drift on the match odds.
Back under 476.5 England runs
Perhaps they know something the rest of us don't. After all, England under Ben Stokes and Brendon McCullum will always take the reckless option rather than anything close to the rationale.
It is possible that their strategy changed from a late session dart at the Aussie batters to a big-enough lead to try to get the job done by an innings, bowling when the ball is seaming and swining under grey skies. The variable bounce which has appeared may also have been a factor.
England's plan could well be severely tested early on day three if they turn up to Old Trafford with the rain pelting down. For that reason their innings runs still look high at 476.5 to short.
Such a total, if achieved, would take signficant time out of the game with first session rain and Australia will reckon that safety - and the urn - was pouched. We still expect the stalemate to trade odds-on at some point.