England v Australia First Ashes Test Player Tips: Smith and Cummins to star

• Smith solid value for a 50

• Concerns over England trio's batting

• Cummins a wager to perform with the ball

England v Australia
Friday 16 June, 11:00
TV: Live on Sky Sports

Back under 23.5 Zak Crawley 1st inns runs @ 5/61.84

The top England runscorer market in the first dig is tricky to call. Ollie Pope, Harry Brook and Jonny Bairstow could all be considered value at 3/1, 11/2 and 10/1 respectively with Betfair Sportsbook.

But each has an asterisk by their name. For a start Pope suffered horribly against this Australia attack Down Under two years ago. He is also right in the firing line at No 3. We don't doubt his natural ability but this is a severe test.

As for Brook and Bairstow the study samples of six games apiece isn't really chunky enough. Perhaps it may be better to consider individual runs buys. Bairstow has been priced at 5/61.84 for over 23.5 in the first, a mark he has busted 16 times in the last two years (28 innings).

Another worry, though, is the lack of first-class cricket for either man. Brook barely got a hit against Ireland and Bairstow underperformed in two county games. A wait-and-see policy may work for the trio.

A big swerve is Joe Root. His terrible returns continue as perennial favourite for this market even if he has been boosted to 3/14.00 by Sportsbook.
Zak Crawley is of interest to short his first-innings runs at 23.5 at 5/61.84 with Sportsbook. Against a crack bowling unit we fear for a player who has a first-class average of 30 and Test average of 28.

In his 63-inning Test career shorting Crawley at that mark would have been a winner a whopping 62% of the time.

Top bat wins/matches under Ben Stokes captaincy
Brook 4/6
Pope 4/14
Bairstow 2/6
Root 1/12
Stokes 1/13
Crawley 1/13
Duckett 0/5

Top bowler wins/matches under Ben Stokes captaincy
Robinson 2/7
Broad 2 t/10
Anderson 2 t/11
Stokes 1 t/14

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Back Steve Smith 1st inns 50 @ 6/52.20

Steve Smith is not a value wager for top Australia first-innings runscorer. Look at that dreadful win rate.

Smith is not a man who is in a rut, however. He has just been outperformed by Usman Khawaja (we have big concerns about his record in England) and Travis Head. Head made a Daddy ton against India in the WTC Final, Smith returned 121.

England's nemesis averages 66 in the last two years, six up from his career mark. He is bang on the 4/1 for a first-innings ton on win rate but there is an edge for a first-innings fifty. He's an even money chance and Sportsbook offer 6/5. That's worth taking.

At Edgbaston in 2019 Smith made a century in each innings. He could go well again.

Top Australia bat wins/matches last two years
Khawaja 8/17
Head 5/18
Labuschagne 3/20
Green 1/17
Warner 1/18
Smith 1/20
Carey 0/20

Back Pat Cummins top 1st inns Aus bowler @ 6/42.50

Pat Cummins copped for top Aussie bowler in the first-innings and there's every reason to reckon he makes an impression early on in this contest.
He is probably the only Aussie bowler that may be immune to Bazball and he should relish attacking the likes of Crawley and Ben Duckett for example.
Sportsbook offer 9/4 that he wins and that is value on how often he returns a profit on this market in the last two years.

Top Australia bowler wins/matches last two years
Cummins 4 3t/16
Starc 3 2t/17
Lyon 3 4t/20
Hazlewood 1/4
Boland 1/8
Green 1/17