England v Australia First Ashes Test Day Three In-play Tips: Time to lay the draw

• Aussies new favourites

• Weather could cost overs

• Root 3/1 for top bat

England v Australia
Sunday 18 June, 11:00
TV: Live on Sky Sports

Lay the draw

With familiar comfort, we have reached the stage of the first Test at Edgbaston that we can start to consider laying the draw.

Australia's go-slow has been in stark contrast to England's gung-ho but the game is moving quick enough to reckon that a price of 3.6553/20 to lay about the stalemate with 15 wickets down is too short.

The tourists, who are indebted to Usman Khawaja's fine ton and Alex Carey's supporting role, are favourites at 2.3211/8. England are 3.3512/5. We're not sure that's the right way around but let's deal with the draw first.

The weather forecast for day three is not good, although seasoned rain watchers in this context will recognise that the experts tend to be more pessimistic than optimistic.

Still, it is reasonable to reckon that overs will be lost. There is a 77% chance of rain from 16.00. At that point the draw will, of course shorten. But a lay now may pay off because we expect a good night's rest will assist England.

They need a re-set and clarity. The bald truth is that a first-innings lead remains very much in reach because there is little batting to come. Australia's decision to leave out Mitchell Starc has lengthened their tail and England are just one wicket from the bowlers.

With Khawaja and Carey also having to start from scratch, England can go bang-bang and the match odds will flip. To that end, shorting Australia's runs par line at 415.5 at even money is wise.

Aussies still spooked

The suspicion remains that England have already got to Australia with their aggressive style. On day one the Aussies folded after only three overs with sweepers either side. On day two it didn't take long to glimpse inside the ears.

When Harry Brook bowled filth to Steve Smith, the No 2 batter in the world played patty cake. With the new ball losing its lustre, the pitch flat and England's bowling attack pedestrian Australia were virtually strokeless, seemingly panicked by England playing fast and loose with the rules of traditional tactics.

Smith's 16 from 59 was torturous as much as it was revealing. At the best of times his fidgeting and crabbiness is a difficult watch but on this occasion the idiosyncrasies appeared to personify Australian fear. Which is curious.

One would have thought if that there was one team who would relish an opponent coming at them, showing 'a bit of mongrel' and audacity, it would be the Aussies. But they don't like it up them. They need to find collective fight sharpish.

It could be that England's own idiosyncrasies will settle them. The hosts missed four crucial chances - notably Khawaja bowled off a no-ball - to wrestle control.

Top England 2nd inns runscorer

Here's a curious stat. Joe Root is a big swerve for first-innings honours (one win in 12 before the first dig) but Mr Reliable in the second with five in twelve.

There are similar switches in form from first to second. Ollie Pope, a solid win rate option in the first, has zero wins in 13 in the second. Ben Stokes is another blank, surprising considering his penchant for getting on with it.

Root looked imperious in the first innings and it wouldn't be a surprise to see him lead England's charge towards setting an improbable total.

Sportsbook make Root 3/1 to top. Jonny Bairstow and Harry Brook, impressive rates both albeit from small study samples, are 7s and 11/2 respectively. They would rank value given how fluent both looked on Friday.

Top England 2nd innings wins/matches under Stokes captaincy
Root 5/12
Bairstow 2/6
Brook 2/6
Crawley 2/13
Duckett 1/6
Stokes 0/13
Pope 0/13