England v Australia 4th Ashes Test Player Tips: Is Smith value for runs?

• Smith value for a fifty at 6/52.20

• Stokes boosted to 7/18.00

• Keep an eye on Brook at 4/15.00

England v Australia
Wednesday 19 July, 11:00
TV: Live on Sky Sports

Back S Smith first-innings 50

There is a general expectation that Steve Smith, a double centurion in 2019 at Old Trafford, will have a significant say in the fourth Ashes Test. But how best to bet him, if at all?

As we know, we can only take wrong prices, regardless of that sensational record. It's more of a comfort blanket than a must-have.

Well, for a start we can rule out top first-innings bat for the Aussies. Look at that win rate below. There's no way we can justify a wager at 13/53.60.

What about prices, then, for a first-innings 50 and century at 6/52.20 and 7/24.50? On win rates in these markets for the last two years he affords an edge of 2.3% on the former and negative equity of 0.3% for the latter.

Peculiarly, Smith remains a major disappointment in the second innings of the match. He has no fifty in 15 innings in the last two years and averages just 21.

A counter argument to not betting Smith for most runs is that there's little to beat. David Warner will be sold at 24.5 first-innings runs at 5/61.84 with Stuart Broad steaming in with wicket No 18 in his sights. Usman Khawaja at the same price over/under 26.5 is looking leaden footed while Marnus Labuschagne (same price at 30.5) is also out of touch.

Top Australia first-innings bat wins/matches last 2 years
Khawaja 9/20
Head 5/21
Labuschagne 3/23
Green 1/19
Warner 1/21
Smith 2/23
Carey 0/23
M Marsh 1/1
Cummins 0/23

Top England first-innings bat

As discussed in our match preview, Joe Root and Ben Stokes also boast impressive record at Old Trafford in first-innings. They average 58 and 59 respectively.

But only one can be cosnidered value on the top England bat market. Stokes. Sportsbook have boosted him to 7/18.00 to cop which puts him in betting range on win rate by 0.8% on the data below.

That's not a huge swing but it's something to cling to in a market where there is not a huge amount of value. Root at 13/53.60 is one of the bigger swerves in the world game.

A case could be made for Harry Brook at 4/15.00. Back in the middle order and having guided England in the nervy chase at Leeds, it feels like he's settled into the series. Histroically, Chros Woakes is a wager at 33s on win rate, too.

Top England first-innings bat wins/matches under Stokes
Brook 4/9
Bairstow 2/9
Root 2/15
Stokes 2/16
Crawley 1/16
Duckett 1/8

Top Australia first-innings bowler

Pat Cummins will need a long holiday after this Ashes series. Including the WTC Final, he will have played six Tests in almost as many weeks.

He retains great value status, though, at 5/23.50 for top Australia bowler in the first dig. He took six at Leeds and now returns 37% of the time.

Top bowler wins/matches under Ben Stokes' captaincy
Robinson 2 2t/10
Broad 2 2t/13
Anderson 2 t/13
Stokes 1 t/17
Wood 1/4
Woakes 0/1

Top Australia bowler 1st inns wins/matches last two years
Cummins 5 3t/19
Starc 4 2t/19
Hazlewood 1/6
Boland 1/10
Green 1/19

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