The Ashes Tips & Predictions

Ashes Series Tips: Ed Hawkins analyses the first Test result

  • Ed Hawkins
  • Published on
  • 2:30 min read
Ed fears for England Down Under now
Ed fears for England Down Under now

England were hammered in Perth inside two days. Where do they go from here and are Australia now unstoppable? Ed Hawkins has the betting angles, odds and key stats...


Australia 1/41.25 for series victory after England collapse

The good news for England is that winning an Ashes series Down Under from 1-0 down is not unprecedented. Len Hutton's tourists overcame an innings and 154-run defeat in Brisbane for a 3-1 success.

The bad news? How long have you got? For a start, the modern England player would have no understanding of the obduracy required from Hutton and co all those years ago. But we'll come back to that.

As concerning is that England blew their chance to catch an unsure, injury-hit Australia off-guard. It gets more difficult from here. Pat Cummins is on his way back, an elite bowler who gives no quarter in line and length. Plus a solid No 8. who is guaranteed to frustrate England at some stage.

The Perth Test also afforded Australians the time to problem solve. Travis Head's move up to open because of an injury to Usman Khawaja might be the best thing that happened to them. Khawaja, surely, now steps away. This allows Australia to bring back Beau Webster to add all-round depth.

Pairing Head with state team-mate and Test ingénue, Jake Weatherald, was also a masterstroke, simultaneously settling and giving confidence to his partner.

Tourists refuse to do the hard work

Then there was the clarity that England, for all their pace, cannot consistently deliver with the ball. A worry raised after day one. They were intense in the first-innings, ball after ball. In the second, they were all over the place.  Few expecting a repeat but somewhere between the two might have been a good idea.

The series score market now looks lively. Australia 4-1 is now the 3/14.00 joint favourite with 3-2. There will also be a focus on the 4-0 home win at 9/110.00.

While Australia grow into the series, what do England do? They hit Australia with everything they had in Perth with the ball. But Jofra Archer, Mark Wood, Gus Atkinson and Brydon Carse may only play two more Test as a unit together on this tour.

From a betting perspective, everything is positive. England really are the trader's dream. Just when they have their throat on an opponent's foot, something shiny or sparkly catches their eye and they wander off like a distracted toddler.

It bodes well for the rest of the series. Big prices on Australia will always be an option, particularly in the day-night Test in Brisbane and at the MCG, another potentially tricky surface. It is clear and present trend that England cannot be trusted at odds-on in-play.

Application is anathema to this England batting unit. There is much discussion about what Bazball is. It is lots of things but, mainly, it is a refusal to work hard when things get tough. This is because, presumably, it impinges on their freedom or enjoyment. The old-fashioned Test graft just isn't cool enough for this lot. Which is sad. And pathetic. 

Ollie Pope, Harry Brook and Joe Root each made a conscious decision not to work hard. They wanted to smash the ball and to hell with consequences. "It's the way we play". Had those three done the opposite and added a further 50 runs between them, England would have been in charge.

It is hard, hard, hard to win a Test in Australia. England are soft, soft, soft.


Now read Ed's Ultimate Guide to The Ashes


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Ed Hawkins avatar

Ed Hawkins

Ed is an award-winning cricket writer and is Betfair's resident tipster on every single cricket tournament we cover.

Prices quoted in copy are correct at time of publication but liable to change.