Ashes Series Betting Tips: England can win a Test match now the pressure is off

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Can England win one of the remaining two Test matches?

After a not-so-shock defeat in Adelaide, Ed Hawkins reviews England's performance in the third Test and discusses the betting odds of a 5-0 whitewash...

  • Australia retain the urn in just 11 days
  • England foudn form when it was too late

  • Ashes whitewash is now as short as 4/61.67

  • Get Ed's verdict on the best correct score wagers

  • Don't miss our dedicated Ashes section HERE

Australia v England
Fourth Test, Christmas Day 23.30
TV: Live on TNT

Australia on course for 5-0 but tourists provide telling response

Now the Ashes Down Under is over as a competitive contest gamblers can perhaps look forward to the rest of the series being a competitive contest. Bear with me.

Interesting, wasn't it, that England managed to produce their best cricket of the series when, to all intents and purposes, they faced certain defeat?

With the pressure off on day four and returning with the ball, England knew that even with a Christmas miracle they would be chasing a monstrous total, one which almost certainly would need world-record defying feats.

There was no pressure. So they ran in, hit the lines and lengths and razed Australia's last six wickets for just 38. Why couldn't they have done this before?

When it was their turn to bat one was reminded of Peep Show, of all references, when perennial loser Jeremy is going for a job at Mark's behest. He is 'playing his shots' so to speak and panics that it is going well so tells himself "don't accidentally get the thing", producing a facial tick to suggest he is unreliable.

England, then, had their own 'don't accidentally win the thing' early on in their second innings with Ben Duckett in the second over and  Ollie Pope a little later producing their own nervous twitches.

The game was up, of course. With pressure released at six down, Jamie Smith and Will Jacks sparked England's best batting display of the series. They got as short as 5/16.00 just before their 87-run stand was brough to an end. Why couldn't they have done this before?

Edge and angst has now disappeared

In all probability, the answer is pressure. Repeating a skill under a weight of expectation is what separates the best from the rest. Australia are superb at it, England are not.

This, then, bodes well for the two Tests which remain. England should be released from their purgatory. It is over, the series has gone and they have failed. In the chasm left behind they have shown they might be able to fill it with their natural ability and, finally, give Australia a game.

Whatever anyone says, the edge and angst from the series has disappeared. There has to be some doubt, too, that Australia are quite as desperate with two dead rubbers left.

Nathan Lyon appears to be out of the series with a hamstring injury while it would be a surprise if Mitchell Starc was to complete the series. He was feeling his side a little on day five in Adelaide.

The 5-0 whitewash is now as short as 4/61.67 and it doesn't have the feel of a bet. Instead the 11/43.75 about a 4-1 home win might have more appeal. England are 11/112.00 to make it 3-2 and flatter to deceive. But the MCG and SCG pitches could reduce the gulf between the sides further.


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Ed Hawkins

Ed is an award-winning cricket writer and is Betfair's resident tipster on every single cricket tournament we cover.

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