Ashes Fifth Test Player Tips: Khawaja, Smith and Tongue the men to bet

• Khawaja to play final Test on home ground

• Smith worth a gamble at big price
• SCG pitch may reward middle order
• Tongue a class apart for England
• Ed has betting strategies and Betfair Exchange trade angles HERE
• Don't miss our dedicated Ashes section HERE

Australia v England
Saturday January 3, 23.30
TV: Live on TNT

Usman Khawaja first-innings 50 11/53.20

Usman Khawaja will make his final appearance for Australia and on his home ground to boot in the fifth Test. There will not be a dry eye in the house and although the emotional punt is often to be sneered at, there is good reason to expect Khawaja to go close to a win here.

For a start, he has a fantastic record at the SCG. Khawaja averages 87.5 there with five half-centuries (four of them converted to tons) in nine Tests. He should feel calm, confident and full of good vibes.

It is not insignificant that he is protected from the new ball. At the start of the seires, Khawaja was in the opening role for Australia and exposed to England's raw pace. The back injury he suffered in Perth may well have prolonged his career to get him to have a swansong.

Moved down to the middle order, Khawaja is less vulnerable and with England's collective speeds dropping by the game due to bowling unit churn, there is less to trouble him. There is also a trend for runs coming from the middle order in Sydney so everything is set up for Khawaja to go well.

Jamie Smith top England first-innings runscorer 9/110.00

There remains a dearth of value on top England runscorer in the first innings and ther are only two players who pass the value test, which is win rate versus implied probability.

One of those is Zak Crawley but few will want to be on him for runs if there is early seam and swing movement. The second is Jamie Smith, who has been a major disappointmet.

Smith has, however, shown signs of perking up after the early-series pressure got to him. He - and his backers - may be cosseted by Sydney's record for rewarding middle- to lower-order batters. 

It's also worth pointing out that a big score may not be required. We're not asking Smith to go and get a ton here. Even a fifty might do it for a flaky England batting line-up. 

Josh Tongue top England first-innings bowler 5/23.50

Only two England players will be able to hold their heads high when this series is done and dusted. Josh Tongue and Jofra Archer. With Archer absent, there is very little competition left to stop Tongue once again shining as England's best bowler.

Tongue has proved he is an automatiuc pick for England and he will provide another difficult question to answer in the post-tour review: why was he not playing from the start?

Tongue's ability to move the ball late and an action which takes his bowling arm beyond the perpendicular has brought 12 wickets in two Tests at a strike rate of 28. He is only seven wickets behind Brydon Carse as England's top wicket-taker.

Carse will be the greatest threat to the bet. But if he pips Tongue here with his brand of wild and wayward short stuff, it would be most unjust. Tongue is a highly-skilled operator, Carse a chancer who has got extremely lucky.

Read the fifth Test preview HERE