- Bethell century gave England hope
-
But England let slip promising partnerships again
- Visitors lead by 119 with two wickets left
- Australia 1.061/18 on the Betfair Exchange for 4-1 scoreline
- Ed has a Bethell-related day five bet
Australia v England
Day 5: Wednesday 6 January, 23.30
TV: Live on TNT
Fifth Test, Day Four Verdict: Bethell announces arrival with cheering ton
Perhaps it was fitting that it was a drinks break that finally did for England. The bottoms-up at the SCG was almost as damaging as the infamous Noosa one.
England lost two wickets immediately after refreshment on day four at the SCG, just when it looked as a Jacob Bethell-inspired comeback could give Australia a nasty chase. They had lost more weeks earlier on their drinking spree on the sunshine coast, however.
The two, of course, are not unconnected. The run out was unprofessional. So was Noosa. And the comparisons between the on-field and off-the-field action can be compared ad nauseum.
Just before the run out England had fought hard, essentially, to go nowhere in terms of the odds from the lunch break. Give or take Australia were around the 2/91.22 mark, England at 8s and the draw 4s. A late Bethell-Smith assault or an early one on day five was mouthwatering.
But it wasn't to be. On the Betafair Exxhange, Australia are 1.061/18, England 17.05321/20 and the draw 75.074/1. The latter got skinny indeed in-play, particular when England were seemingly on the charge at 219 for three.
It was just a great shame from a betting perspective that we were be denied a potential thrilling last-day grandstand finish on a a wearing pitch. The sort that the series had promised in an optimistic Autumn.
Instead, England will be buoyed by the emergence of Bethell. Sometimes calamitous Ashes tours Down Under unearth nuggets. For Bethell, read Ben Stokes's century in Perth in 2013 which announced his arrival.
What Bethell's century shouldn't do is justify the Brendon McCullum approach. Potential genius has emerged in spite of the McCullum chaos, not because of it. Most seasoned watchers will reckon that Bethell could be immense in the middle-order for example and at No 3 his returns will be less. Yes, a star is born. But McCullum threatens not to get the best from him.
Fifth Ashes Test: Day Five Bet
The final throes of the action will focus on Bethell. After some sighters he will attempt to blitz his way to something for England to attack with the ball. Sportsbook's 11/102.11 that he hits three more fours in his innings is a possible wager. He has to throw caution to the win at some stage.
Fifth Test, Day Three Verdict: Root sensible top-bat option
Australia ended day three as 1.331/3 chances on the Betfair Exchange to land a fourth win of the Ashes as the series fizzles out to an uncompetitive sideshow. In terms of heat in the contest, think the Christmas soot and detritus in the hearth. Then pour over some of that sour milk left by the grate from a sated Santa. It's been that sort of fare.
It could yet get worse for England who trail by 134 with three wickets to get. The spirit of Bazball is now just a ghost. In its healthy days one could make a case for a comeback to trade. Not anymore.
In a tour of nadirs, was England performance in the first session a new one or just de rigueur? They dropped four catches (one a dolly), missed a run out and burned through their reviews.
If there had been even a modicum of competence we might have be looking at the prospect of a competitive day four. In the end it was merely 'heartening' to see England hang in grimly.
The small comfort for their fans was the fact that just before Steve Smith's century they could claim they had trimmed Australia's implied probability of success by ten per cent from the 87% at the lunch break. Be grateful for small mercies.
A Smith century in this series was, of course, inevitable. There is now another feeling of inevitability about this Test. One of grim humiliation for an England unit which has little left to give.
Fifth Ashes Test: Day Four Bets
The misery is almost complete and come their chance to bat extreme unders on England runs are going to be a fair option. The wicket is good but we're just not sure the will is there with England anymore. Unders 150-190 are good starting points against an Aussie attack with their feet up for two days. It would not be in the least surprising if Australia were to win by an innings here.
Profiting from an England collapse could also mean taking big price about top England runscorer. The market, alas, is pretty much alive to the prospect, though. Brydon Carse at 25s anyone? No, thought not.
Perhaps Will Jacks offers up some value at 11/112.00. The prospect of 40 or 50 winning it feels live. To that end perhaps Joe Root is worth a go at 3/14.00. Sure, he is market favourite but his ability to dig in and fight will not be surpassed. Look at the win rates below. There is nothing for him to beat.
Root is 'due' so to speak. He came into this series with a superior record in the second-innings market as opposed to the first. But two wins have cut that bias to one percentage point with win rates of 25% in the first and 26% in the second.
Sportsbook's odds are implied probability of 25% so we at least have one point in our favour.
|
Root |
7 |
27 |
25.93% |
|
Smith |
2 |
19 |
10.53% |
|
Brook |
1 |
22 |
4.55% |
|
Duckett |
1 |
27 |
3.70% |
Back Joe Root top England runscorer
Fifth Test, Day Two Verdict: Australia reassert dominance
A Travis Head charge, wayward England bowling and a batting collapse. And Australia odds-on favourites. T'was ever thus in this Ashes series.
On the Betfair Exchange Australia are 1.444/9 to claim the series 4-1 with England 5.805/1 and the draw out to 7.006/1.
It wasn't so much as a new low for Ben Stokes's team. Just an all-too familiar one.
Any hope that England would take a firm grip of the Test and put themselves in a commanding position for a face-saving 3-2 scoreline were extinguished in the first 35 minutes when they lost both Harry Brook and Ben Stokes.
Before a ball was bowled there was not even 2% on implied probability splitting the two teams. England were a 30-run partnership from significant odds-on. But Brook was outwitted by Scott Boland and Stokes fell to a cracker from Mitch Starc.
The Jamie Smith innings that followed perfectly characterised England's tour. If there has been a worse, more chaotic innings than a top-level batter at elite level in the last few years few have seen it.
Smith was an embarrassment and could have been out at least five times before producing the shot which is likely to go down in Ashes folklore for its stupidity. Smith produced a tennis shot to part-timer Marnus Labuschagne as Australia had run out of ideas before the new ball.
So England's 323 for six became 385 all out. And of course Australia do not need asking twice to take control.
England's bowlers, in another worn tale, couldn't hit line and length in consecutive balls and Australia were off to a flyer.
England do look spent. Matt Potts came into the side and has looked like a bowler who hasn't bowled for weeks. There didn't seem to be any sort of plan as to how to stop Head.
If England can pinch out nightwatchman Michael Neser early it would be the perfect time to go overs on total Australia runs or go over on Sportsbook's fall of next wicket. Steve Smith and Usman Khawaja will both fancy their chances on this surface, which is still behaving well despite the odd bit of inconsistent bounce. You can get 11/26.50 about a Head ton (nine needed) and Smith ton combo. . Khawaja is 13/27.50 for a first-innings ton.
Fifth Test, Day One Verdict: England should be shorter than Aussies
The money men get their way in the end. After two two-day finishes and financial losses which would make Barings blush, it does appear that Cricket Australia have demanded a wicket which will help to recoup some of the red with a five-day Test at the SCG. Even England were made to look like world-beaters.
Rain and gloom ended day one early and this time tomorrow we could be looking at the draw for the stalemate at odds-on. There is a relatively simple trade signposted early on in this Test. Backing the 4.607/2 with a plan to lay off at 1.9010/11 with double the stake on the pink button to guarantee profit on whatever happens.
What is bonkers is the price on Australia. How are they favourites to win the Test at 2.466/4, even accounting for a good pitch which they will still have to bat last on? They are under huge scoreboard pressure and are on course to be 400-plus behind at tea. England have been dreadful in this series but runs on the board are runs on the board and we would have them in pole instead of 2.707/4.
The Sydney surface played like a featherbed, even if it didn't look like it. Green, patchy and ugly many could have been forgiven for smashing into unders when England appeared to be on the trajectory for a familiar Ashes collapse at 57 for three. Zak Crawkey and Jacob Bethell, however, were two out of the three who were guilty of injudicious strokeplay rather than something demonic off the track.
Crawley got stuck in the crease and missed a straight one while Bethell showed all of his inexperience when edging behind to Scott Boland who had telegraphed his plan to go across him. Bethell is on a very fast learning curve.
Joe Root and Harry Brook rebuilt with few alarms. Root effortlessly cutting and dabbing just before lunch showed that he had the measure while Brook, impressively reserved, found a couple of strokes before the break, too. After the third wicket the draw had been as big as 25.0024/1.
On day two we should expect more runs. England's runs line at overs 443.5 should be relatively straightforward from here although Australia's is one to watch. It could look cheap indeed if an early show is right. There could be a chance to go overs at the 350 mark.
There is a 20% chance of showers for each of day two and day three. Humidity is high and England will hope that can aid swing with the new ball, which looks absolute vital in terms of moving this Test towards a result. Also be aware at this stage that England's approach is to force a result. With nothing on the line, both sides could conjur a finale.