Ashes Second Test In-Play Tips: Ed Hawkins on a miserable Test match for England

• Australia win the second Test

• England abysmal 

• Series looks all but done
• Don't miss our dedicated Ashes section HERE

---

Australia v England
Day 4: Sunday 6 December, 04.00
TV: Live on TNT

Second Test, Day Three Verdict: England sliding to defeat

Australia are on the brink of a 2-0 lead in the Ashes after a dominant day in Brisbane, leading by 43 runs with England collapsing to 134 for six. The hosts are about to hit 1.011/100 on the Betfair Exchange, with the below chart painting a sorry picture for the tourists.

Earlier, Australia's tailenders piled on the misery for England's bowlers, who failed to bowl with discipline or, seemingly, a plan. The last four wickets added a massive 181 runs.

You could say the difference between batting in the day and under the floodlights is like night and day. So with the Test coming to a close and betting opportunities beginning to recede, the best in-play strategy may focus on that point of variation.

In the first innings of the match 129 runs were scored for five runs after dinner, 150 for three in the second.

When the lights have not been on runmaking has been made to look easy. If Mitchell Starc can look like a million bucks and the likes of Scott Boland can appear relatively untroubled, then there should be opportunities to score.

Options include going long of partnership runs with Sportsbook as overs fall of next wicket. The cute time to play could be 10-15 runs just after a wicket to make sure the new batter has had to see the ball.

But now deep into this England innings the cheaper those runs quotes get. There could well be some desperate, late thrashings from the tail and wins could come relatively quickly.

Also keep an eye on markets for overs fours for some of those tailenders. The likes of Gus Atkinson and Brydon Carse could be cheap plays at over 1.5.

As for the series, well, as discussed below it is almost impossible to see how England fight back from the position of 2-0 down. The size of that potential task is neatly illustrated by the length of time since it last happened and the main protagonist; 1936 and some bloke called Bradman.

England look a broken unit and it could get very messy, very quickly. Bazball has been proved to be perfectly suitable on pitches which are good for batting and against opposition without gumption.

Perhaps it was inevitable. A reaction to the mental strains of Covid cricket and pressure of following rules on and off the field, it served its purpose. But in time it was always going to end in similar fashion. For some it appears they now suffer from the pressure of having to play their shots. Others like to use it as an excuse for failure.

---

Australia v England
Day 3: Saturday 5 December, 04.00
TV: Live on TNT

Second Test, Day Two Verdict: One-trick ponies brutally exposed 

If we're being realistic and a tad harsh (why not?) England face the ignominy of surrendering the Ashes in four days. Technically, they could still win this Test. Technically they could lose it and come from behind. But they are rated as a 18.2 per cent chance with Sportsbook not to go 2-0 down. It is worse on the Exchange. England are 6.4011/2 with Australia just 1.241/4. The urn will not turn.

But after the devastation of Perth, they absolutely had to be in the game at this stage in Brisbane. Instead they are look a team without hope or a plan. Day two was as bad as it gets after they ceded control in the first session in the field, Jofra Archer setting the tone with legside deliveries. 

In consecutive innings with the ball they have been wayward, unable to hit consistent line and length. Forget complains that the pink ball did zilch under lights, this mob wouldn't have known what to do with it. There was only brief respite thanks to Cameron Green's Bazball brain fade.

A few wise sages suggested after Perth that, despite an intense and relentless bowling display in the second innings of the series, the fourth's chaotic effort exposed a lack of match fitness.

It came to pass again. Buoyed by a reasonably strong first-innings show with the bat in the day-night test, Australia exposed England as pretenders. Where is the artistry? The guile? They just run up and try to bowl fast. They're a one-trick pony. Poor will jacks, asked to bowl his part-time spin at the elite level is just, pony. That's it.

And Australia may well continue to expose the brawn-not-brains approach. To be outplayed and on the cusp of 2-0 down against an Australia team without Pat Cummins and Josh Hazlewood is shocking. When this Test eventually ends in another Australia win, correct score prices of 5-0 and 4-1 are  all the rage.

---

Top England second-innings runscorer

The data suggests that we should be backing Joe Root for more runs in England's second innings. He is, clearly, in supreme touch and now has the added freedom of playing without worrying about breaking his century duck in Australia. Root has a win rate of 29% and will go off favourite, possibly around the 11/43.75 mark.

Still, could there be value elsewhere? Considering one player has been so dominant it could be argued that there isn't much to beat. The paucity of returns from Zak Crawley, Ben Duckett, Ollie Pope and Harry Brook (whose combined win rates do not surpass Root) suggest the market is wide open.

We do not discount, then, a late-order winner. A thrashed 30 or 40 could even do it if conditions worsen.

Will Jacks, Gus Atkinson (who has won already on tour) and Brydon Carse could be options. Jacks, in particular, catches the eye. He batted well in the first dig and his brilliant one-handed catch has possibly settled him into the game. He might have the shots and added discipline following his error against Mitch Starc in the first.

Top England 2^nd inns bat two-year win rates
Root 29%
Smith 12.5%
Stokes 10%
Crawley 9%
Brook 5%
Pope 4%
Duckett 4%

---

Australia v England
Day 2: Friday 5 December, 04.00
TV: Live on TNT

Second Test, Day One Verdict: Odds flip flop as England let it slip 

The second Test started in much the same fashion as the first. England were under pressure. They lost two for five with Mitchell Starc the destroyer again. But England, perhaps uncharacteristically, decided to graft. And despite injudicious key moments, the run rate suggested Bazball had been put on the shelf.

It would not have been unreasonable to reckon that England would have attempted a reckless assault to try to guarantee bowling with the pink ball under lights. Instead Joe Root led the way with a steady accumulation.

England will reckon that runs on the board are crucial. Don't forget there is a 64% bias for the side batting first in the previous 24 day-night Tests. They got plenty although they may come to regret not declaring for the sake of 20-30 runs.

Australia are 1.845/6 with England 2.526/4. It could prove that those odds are generous on Australia. But England will have their own fight with a soft ball in blazing heat. 

---

Top Australia first-innings bat

The Brisbane wicket looked extremely flat on day one and slow enough to make one wonder that, with more English circumspection, that the draw trade was an option.

It was noticeable how Zak Crawley and Joe Root batted a good foot outside of their crease, trying to add pace onto the ball. And there was a major drop after 20 overs or so in terms of bounce. TNT graphics suggested about 8cm.

When it is Australia's turn to bat, we could see a repeat of early new-ball swing only for it to flatten significantly. Marnus Labuschagne and Steve Smith, then, will reckon they have a great chance for runs.

Sportsbook Labuschagne at 4/15.00 for top Aussies first-innings bat and Smith at 16/54.20. In-play they could well be solid runs buys at around 33 and 37 respectively.

---

Second Test in-play strategy

England always give the opposition - and gamblers - a chance. Just when it looks as though they are going to establish a stranglehold they let things slip. They're like a kitten with its paw on its first catch only to get distracted by something sparkly over their shoulder.

First Harry Brook tried to launch Mitchell Starc into the stands off the front foot. England were bossing it with the hosts reluctant to bring back their strike bowler. Then Ben Stokes suffered a brain fade with a drop and run which Joe Root rightly recognised as suicide.

It was chaotic. It was drama. And the swings on the market are perfect for traders. Consistently throughout this series there is money to be made going against the tide when things are going swimmingly for England. It's an absolute must to consider extreme unders and Australia at odds-against in play, particularly in the first two digs.

---

Now read Ed's Ultimate Guide to The Ashes

---