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Pakistan short priced favourites
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Fakhar has ground form
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Karachi pitch harder for batters
Pakistan v New Zealand
Wednesday 3 April, 11:30
TV: Live on BT Sports
Team news
Pakistan rested Shaheen Afridi for game two and they lacked a little bite in their attack when conceding 336. He could return for Ihsanullah who was pricey. Haris Sohail is out of the series with injury and has been replaced in the squad by Iftikhar.
Fakhar Zaman was the star of the last outing. His 180 came off 144 balls and turned a tricky chase into a breeze.
Probable XI: Fakhar, Imam, Babar, Shafique, Rizwan, Agha, Nawaz, Afridi, Usama, Rauf, Naseem
The Kiwis were grateful for another top-bat effort from Daryl Mitchell, who produced back-to-back tons. Tom Latham fell just shy of a century of his own.
They were probably disappointed with the target they set in the end as the acceleration at the death didn't materialise. Mark Chapman can't do it every time in white ball cricket.
A change could be coming as they used only five bowlers. All-rounder Cole McConchie could be more useful than Henry Nicholls.
Possible XI: Young, Bowes, Mitchell, Latham, Neesham, Chapman, McConchie, Ravindra, Sodhi, Shipley, Henry
Pitch report
The series switches to the National Stadium, Karachi. It's another decent batting wicket although not quite as road-like as Rawalpindi. In five ODI since 2019 there have been three scores of more than 280 and one of more than 300.
The sides met three times at the venue in January and New Zealand posted 255 and 161, winning the latter. They then chased Pakistan's 280. The 50-over pay line is here. This could be an udners play if the quote is in that 280 region.
How to play
New Zealand's two wins at this ground come with a word of warning. It was a first-choice XI. This is a B team.
It wouldn't make sense to justify a wager at 3.185/40 on previous form. They may hope to get some help from conditions under lights but there's no evidence that the flip makes a difference.
For game two we were keen on Pakistan in a chunky chase and that strategy paid off. It could make sense to go for the same again. New Zealand should be favourites with 280 on the board and then we can play. If they chase, however, then there may be room for a trade to around 2.47/5.
Tops value
Imam-ul-Haq and Will Young are the batters boosted for top team bat at 7/2 and 4/1 respectively with Sportsbook. But Fakhar will be all the rage, particularly after a ton and fifty in the three-game series at this venue in January. He is 11/4 for top Pakistan bat, 4/1 for top match bat and 8/1 for man of the match. Mitchell is 7/2 for top Kiwi bat with Latham 4/1.