Pakistan v New Zealand Fourth T20 Tips: Run fest incoming for Pindi

• Bet on big runs

• Pakistan could shuffle batting order

• Cleaver could come in for Kiwis

Pakistan v New Zealand
Thursday 20 April, 17:00
TV: Live on Sky Sports

Team news

Pakistan fluffed the chance to secure the series in the last leg in Lahore. But they almost made a remarkable comeback chasing 164 from 88 for seven. Iftikhar's 60 from 24 had made them favourites.

It is possible Pakistan make changes to their batting order after that disappointing show. Mohammad Haris and Shan Masood are possible replacements for Saim Ayub or Fakhar Zaman. One suspects Haris could come in at No 3.

Ihsanullah is an option in the pace department instead of Naseem Shah and Mohammad Nawaz may be putting pressure on Imad Wasim.

Possible XI: Babar, Rizwan, Haris, Ayub, Shadab, Iftikar, Imad/Nawaz, Faheem, Afridi, Ihsanullah,

New Zealand's B team are still alive - somehow. Defending such a paltry score on the road that is Lahore was a monumental effort. But they have to be much more aggressive with the bat in Rawalpindi.

To do that Dane Cleaver has to be given a chance instead of one of the udnerperforming Will Young or Chad Bowes. Otherwise they should remain unchanged.

Possible XI: Latham, Bowes, Cleaver, Mitchell, Chapman, Neesham, Ranvidra, Milne, Sodhi, Lister, Henry

Pitch report

The Rawalpindi pitch is flat, flat, flat. There were massive scores in the PSL this year. Of the 11 matches played there, seven produced scores of 200 or more.

In addition, 240 was chased, 242 was chased, 205 was chased and 201 was chased. The innings par line looks incredibly cheap, therefore, at an opening 181.5. Even if this went up by ten we'd be playing.

How to play

Pakistan are no better than 1.392/5. It is prohibitely short, of course. New Zealand are 3.505/2.

The best way to play this market is to hope that New Zealand bat first and make use of the surface. With 200 about par, we could have the opportunity to bet the hosts at something chunky in the chase.

In short, we would back Pakistan to chase anything up to the 240 mark as there is clear form for that.

Tops value

The tops market should be approached with caution. With this such a flat wicket, individual runs quotes may be better than backing a single player to outscore the rest in the match or their team-mates. So Babar Azam and Mohammad Rizwan quotes of overs 28.5 at 5/6 have appeal.

A bet which keeps all hitters on side is a century in first-innings at 17/2. There were three scored in that 11-game PSL spell at the venue. It's a great price.

You may not need to take this bet if you want to side with the first-innings runs angle instead.

As for Cleaver of the Kiwis, we've been talking him up twice this series at a wrong price of 17/2 for top bat. Alas Sportsbook are on the money and go 4s for the probable No 3.