-
New Zealand lead series at 2-1
-
Windies need to bat first
-
Saxton Oval major toss bias
-
Shepherd still a must bet
-
Chapman missed out for hosts
New Zealand v West Indies
Monday 10 November, 00:15
TV: Live on TNT
New Zealand v West Indies fourth T20 team news
New Zealand took a 2-1 lead in Nelson in a contest which was tighter than it should have been. They had to shuffle their pack after they lost Mark Chapman to illness. Mitchell Hay replaced him. Jimmy Neesham replaced Zak Foulkes.
In the absence of Chapman, one of their stronger hitters, New Zealand were perhaps a little underpar for the ground size with a first-innings total of 177. From 144 for three in the 16th they failed to accelerate to post an imposing total. Devon Conway and Daryl Mitchell had provided a solid platform. With the ball Jacob Duffy and Ish Sodhi took three wickets apiece
Probable New Zealand XI: Conway, Robinson, Ravindra, Mitchell, Hay, Bracewell, Santner, Neesham, Jamieson, Sodhi, Duffy
West Indies again won the sixes match bet. Eight maximums flew from their bats as opposed to New Zealand's five. But they're not doing the hard work. Rotating strike, running twos. For the second-successive match they got way behind the rate.
Indeed, the game looked up 88 for eight. But late onslaughts from Romario Shepherd and Shamar Springer made the hosts sweat before the final ball of the 19th.
Amir Jangoo replaced Brandon King at the top of the order and Sherfane Rutherford came into the middle order for Roston Chase.
Probable WI XI: Jangoo, Athanaze, Hope, Auguste, Rutherford, Powell, Holder, Shepherd, Hosein, Springer, Forde
New Zealand v West Indies fourth T20 ODI pitch report
New Zealand should have gone much closer to busting 200 at Saxton Oval given the size of the ground and the fact the wicket looked pretty decent for batting. It was only the fourth T20 played there following scores of 187 in 2017, 189 in 2019 and 218 this year.
The big trend, however, is the whopping bias for the team batting first. All four T20i have now gone to the defender while 12 of the 15 domestic matches went the same way.
Sportsbook offer 10/111.91 that both teams reach 170 or more and that is a tempter because of the nature of the wicket. Conversely, the sixes line feels toppy. As stated for game four the average domestically is 7.2 per match.
New Zealand v West Indies fourth T20 match prediction
The strategy has not changed from game three to four because of that significant toss bias. The advantage is weighted in favour of the team batting first and defending so we have to bet accordingly.
There is no rationale for reckoning the Kiwis are a wrong price here at a prohibitive 1.501/2. And as stated previously, the form guide gives no clue as to why they should be so short. Thirteen wins in their last 28 at home in this format is not the mark of such a wager.
We will hope West Indies get the chance to post a score at 2.9215/8, although when more market depth becomes available it would not be a surprise to see them go off at around the 3.1085/40 mark.
There is no historic trend on match odds for major market moves off the back of a coin flip when there is a toss bias involved, not in short series such as this anyway.
Back Man United to win and Over 1.5 goals
New Zealand v West Indies fourth T20 player bets
The strategy has not changed from game three to four on the players market, either. Romario Shepherd's blank on top bowler just means he is a game closer to winning. He was notching at 38% before Sunday's contest. Sportsbook have chopped him by half a point to 7/24.50 but we still play. The 35s on Hay for top Kiwi bat catches the eye because he is a proper batter. We understand why he's priced so big as he batted at No 8 but he could well be pushed up the order.
Back Romario Shepherd top WI bowler