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Texas rated as outsiders in qualifier
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Winner goes straight to the final
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Back big score in run-laden Dallas
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Betfair Predicts is your essential guide to England v India this summer
Texas Super Kings v Washington Freedom
Wednesday 9 July, 01:00
TV: Live on Willow
Texas Super Kings v Washington Freedom MLC team news
Texas Super Kings held on to second spot on net run rate after San Francsico Unicorns suffered a surprise defeat by LA Knight Riders. In Faf Du Plessis they have the tournament's highest runscorer while Adam Milne is the third-best wicket-taker.
They have moved on from Devon Conway, preferring middle-order power of Donovan Ferreira but they await a big performance from Marcus Stoinis. Domestic hitter Shubham Ranjane is striking at 164.
Possible Texas XI: Smit Patel, Du Plessis, Mukkamalla, Stoinis, Ranjane, Ferreira, Savage, Akeal, Milne, Noor, Zia-ul-haq
Washington Freedom lost only twice in the league season and one of those came in the very first game of the season. They have packed their side with middle-order power in the form of Glenn Maxwell, Glenn Phillips and now Mark Chapman, who has been preferred to Lockie Ferguson.
They can take that risk on the overseas bowler because Saurabh Netravalkar is the best US pacer by far. Ferguson will be under serious consideration, however, on a Grand Prairie surface which has been a road.
Possible Freedom XI: Owen, Ravindra, Gous, Chapman, Maxwell, Phillips, Pienaar, Edwards, Holland, Mukhtar, Netravalkar,
Texas Super Kings v Washington Freedom MLC pitch report
The tournament is back at Grand Prairie Stadium where we are pretty sure batters will dominate again. They did in the 17 league matches. And that study sample is enough to rely on. Form previous to that is irrelevant because this is a drop-in surface made in a completely different part of the country.
More than 190 was busted eight times in the 12. A notable performance was Freedom chasing 220 to beat Texas. It would be a surprise if we didn't see at least 190 first up again.
Both teams are 13/82.63 to bust 190. That has won six times so it is fair to say that is should be shorter. That is going to have to be a bet.
For sixes lines over 19.5 has won seven times this term. Over 33.5 fours is an evens chance. Sportsbook offer 8/111.73 and 10/111.91 . There is the potential for a short 55m boundary from the Race Track End to right-handers on the leg side. There would have been rain in the day but we don't expect lost overs.
Back both teams to score 190
Texas Super Kings v Washington Freedom match prediction
Texas are outsiders at 2.186/5 with Freedom clear favourites at 1.784/5. We thought the two might be a little closer together. After all, Texas were one of the two sides to beat Freedom in the league stage. Their win in a five-over thrash cannot be wholly discpounted because it was all about batting power, which this game repeats.
What will be key is batting first. Texas have the batting power, nous and the pitch to flip these odds with a big score by the break. A simple Betfair Exchange trade on that basis would make sense.
We will be keeping the tie trade on our side in these play-offs. The conditions should keep both team honest to the last. We should be able to back it at least 30.029/1 into low numbers in a last-over thriller. The loser will meet the winner of San Francisco-New York in the final eliminator.
Trade tie from 30.0 to...
Texas Super Kings v Washington Freedom MLC player bets
We await something big from Stoinis. He has often been a reliable man of the match bet and he is under consideration in the big game at 12s In the head-to-heads this term, there was a top bat win for Du Plessis on this ground and three wickets for Milne. For Freedom, Mitch Owen won man of the match with three wickets and 89. He is 9/110.00 for a repeat.