International League T20 Tips Play-off Matches: DubCaps eye final charge

• Viper-Emirates winner straight to final

• No Pooran, Rashid, Bairstow for MI

• DubCaps-ADKR loser knocked out

• Chase bias in Dubai

• Don't miss our dedicated Ashes section HERE

Desert Vipers  v MI Emirates
Tuesday 30 December, 14.30
TV: Live on Sky Sports

Desert Vipers v Mumbai Emirates  ILT20 tips

Desert Vipers and MI Emirates proved to be far and away the two best sides in the league stage. Vipers won eight of their ten matches and Emirates seven. However, the player drain suffered by Emirates renders their form irrelevant.

Nic Pooran, Rashid Khan and Jonny Bairstow have all left for SAT20 and although the former two have records that weren't amazing, it is hard not to reckon that Emirates are significantly weakened. Dan Mousley has been added to the group but they do look light on batters with Kieron Pollard now at No 4.

Vipers have lost Shimron Hetmyer to injury and have replaced him with Jason Roy. It's not a like-for-like switch but the core group remains. 

In what is a straight shootout in Abu Dhabi where there is no toss bias, we're keen on Vipers to get the job done. A settled, organised side with few frills, Vipers have the efficiency to get the win over an Emirates side who now have to adapt to players changing roles. 

We note the 18s about Mousley top-scoring for Emirates. It could be that he bats as high as No 5. Regardless, we would have him at a minimum of 12s. 

Dubai Capitals v Abu Dhabi Knight Riders
Wednesday 31 December, 14.30
TV: Live on Sky Sports

Dubai Capitals v Abu Dhabi Knight Riders  ILT20 tips

The cream rises to the top in the franchise leagues so often with the third and fourth play-off we are left with two outfits who have, shall we say, gone well past their sell-by date.

Capitals and Knight Riders are two poor teams. We are grateful for the toss bias in Dubai to help us separate them. From 40 matches, 27 have been won by the team batting second.

It is true that ADKR busted that trend in beating Gulf Giants in what was, effectively, a qualifier for this eliminator but that probably says more about the Giants than anything else. ADKR have been wildly inconsistent, particularly with the bat.

Early shows had this set up to be a choice affair but it is a surprise to see Dub Caps underrated at 2.1211/10. That raises the prospect of a 1.9110/11 price even with the chase in their favour. They won both head to heads (one by a massive 93 runs) in regular season and had significantly better net run rate than ADKR.

A score of 170-180 batting first should shorten up the side batting first and at that stage we would be prepared to bet the chaser. In an ideal world that would be Dub Caps as they are slightly more reliable. They won both head-to-heads this season.

Now read our dedicated Ashes section here.