Punjab Kings v Rajasthan Royals IPL Tips: Parag value again at 9/2 for top bat

Punjab Kings v Rajasthan Royals
Saturday 5 April, 15:00
TV: live on Sky Sports

Punjab Kings v Rajasthan Royals IPL team news

Punjab have won two from two and they have looked strong in both outings. They've downed Gujarat and Lucknow to go top of the table. Last time out against LSG they picked a team which looked to have all bases covered.

Bringing in Lockie Ferguson to add bowling nous was a reaction to Gujarat getting a little close to comfort in a chase of 243. Azmatullah Omarzai was the man to make way and it is a move which reinforces faith that this lot are switched on this year. They added batting depth in the chase against LSG with Nehal Wadhera as an impact sub for Yuz Chahal, meaning they batted all the way down to No 9. 

Possible Punjab XI: Arya, Prab Singh, Iyer, Maxwell, Stoinis, Shahshank, Shedge, Jansen, Ferguson, Arshdeep, Chahal (Wadhera sub)

Royals beat Chennai to get points on the board but few will be convinced that they are suddenly going to mount a serious title challenge. They remain a batter light and we hate Wanindu Hasaranga in the top six and going in ahead of Shimron Hetmyer. Jofra Archer at No 7 is way too high. And all this with the impact player rule.

Where they are strong is with the ball. Jofra Archer has rediscovered his radar and Hasaranga his potency. It is crucial the latter delivers as he is the fulcrum of the side. Sanju Samson is expected to return to skippering the side as he was supposed to be sitting out leadership for the first three. Riyan Parag may play more freely as a result. Dhruv Jurel will still probably be the gloveman. 

Possible RR XI: Samson, Jaiswal, Rana (Kartikeya sub), Parag, Jurel, Hasaranga, Hetmyer, Archer, Theekshana, Deshpande, Sandeep

Punjab Kings v Rajasthan Royals IPL pitch report

There have only been five IPL matches at Maharaja Yadavindra Stadium. The run rate batting first is 8.37 with 170 busted three times. All matches were played last season. In all 28 T20 matches, there is a slight bias for the side batting first but 23 were in the Syed Mushtaq Trophy. There was a noticeable difference in the pitch quality for batters in the two competitions. In the Syed Mushtaq, more than 170 was breached only six times with some very low scores. It does appear that this a game where we take a watching brief, or at least wait for the pitch report pre-toss. 

There is a suspicion that more time and effort is put into IPL pitches and for a new venue the groundsman is unlikely to want to produce something which dulls the spectacle. Punjab are also unlikely to want something that is slow and low. The overs line is currently 183.5.

Punjab Kings v Rajasthan Royals  IPL match prediction 

Punjab are these pages' headline tip to qualify for the play-offs. So far, they look to have the best balance and depth of any team in the competition. But do they have the gumption?

With such a strong Aussie contingent, one would hope so. But at 1.784/5 we need to see more evidence. The Punjab franchises of old would chuck in a stinker about now. Just when you think they have turned a corner, they have reverted to type. This could be a watershed game. 

That's a more convoluted way of saying that, at present, there's no evidence that Punjab are a side good enough to be rated so short. Ina couple of games' time we might think differently but they are a team to keep a close eye on. They do have the potential to be pricey with the ball so watch with interest.

Punjab Kings v Rajasthan Royals IPL Exchange strategy 

Punjab are unlikely to know when they are beat with the bat. All the way down to No 9 they will keep coming at teams. That provides an insight into how to play the match-odds in-play.

At odds-against in a chase which appears to be getting away from them, don't be surprised if they get up from unlikely positions. Up to 15 an over in the last four is not beyond their means we suspect so taking prices accordingly is an option.

Punjab Kings v Rajasthan Royals IPL player bets

Riyan Parag is back out to 9/25.50 for top bat for Rajasthan Royals. He is in the win zone and fits the win-rate criteria. There's nothing alarming in the relatively short study sample on match-up data. With the ball, Tushar Deshpande is an interesting bet at 7/24.50 for top Royals bowler.

Of bowlers who have taken more than 20 wickets in the last three years, only 12 have a better strike rate than Deshpande. True, one of those is Hasaranga at 14.5 but the pacer is not far behind on 16.6. Hasaranga is 13/53.60 and it might be a tighter market than the odds suggest.

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