Mumbai Indians v Punjab Kings IPL Tips: Punjab underrated as MI struggle

Click here Mumbai Indians v Punjab Kings odds
Thursday 16 April,16:00
TV: Sky Sports

Mumbai Indians v Punjab Kings IPL team news

Mumbai Indians look likely to be without Rohit Sharma after a hamstring problem cut short his innings in the defeat by Bangalore. It leaves them with a headache as to how to replace him because of a lack of domestic batting talent on the bench.

The most obvious would be to deploy Robin Minz in his middle-order role where he strikes at more than 150. But that would require Suryakumar Yadav being asked to open the batting, something he has only done for India. If not, Quinton de Kock comes in and they have to lose an overseas player, probably Mitch Santner.

MI need a win badly. But they look a confused outfit. Batting Santner, who couldn't throw a spoon across a table, ahead of Shadrul Thakur is instructive of their mindset.

Possible XI: Sky, Rickleton, Tilak, Hardik, Minz, Dhir (Markande sub), Santner, Shardul, Boult, Bumrah

Punjab Kings have won each of the three matches they have played this term with one washout against KKR. They must hope that does not cost them in the long run given Kolkata's dreadful form.

They bat deep and there are signs that they are getting a grip in the field. Last season, despite a runners-up spot, they had moments when they were profligate. Last time out against Sunrisers, for example, they pulled it back brilliantly to leave themselves with a relatively easy chase. They may be the best balanced team in the comp.

Possible XI: Arya, Prab, Connolly, Shreyas, Wadhera (sub Chahal), Shashank, Stoinis, Jansen, Bartlett, Vyshak, Arshdeep

Mumbai Indians v Punjab Kings IPL pitch report

The Wankhede is a small ground and is usually reliable for runs. The runs per over in the last 18 IPL night matches is 9.69 and more than 205.5 has been busted eight times in that period. We chose that line becasue the 20-over market is likely to be set at least that high for overs. Both teams to score 200 has won five times. This is a 7/52.40 chance on the Betfair Sportsbook so it could hardly be described as a rick.

These two haven't met at the venue at night since 2023 when Punjab smashed 214 batting first and MI fell short by 13. We would expect a similar batting-heavy contest. The easiest play might be going overs 194.5 Punjab total match runs. That really isn't a big ask on this surface and with short boundaries to boot. To that end, match sixes at 20.5 may seem high but it could be argued it's a quote which isn't keeping pace with the new era.

Mumbai Indians v Punjab Kings IPL match prediction

Mumbai Indians are 1.784/5 favourites with Punjab Kings 2.245/4. Welcome to cricket betting 1.01. There is no justification for MI being as short.

This is a market which has been swayed poorly by the size of the franchises involved. MI are the storied, 'historic' team with the big-name players and big sponsorship deals. But they've not made a dent in this tournament for five years and they may be getting left behind by upstarts like Punjab.

Punjab hit better than anyone, have tighted up with the ball and can build on last year's runners-up spot. More recent formguide, which has MI struggling to keep pace after three defeats, is probably the most relevant element of all.

We would also like Punjab to hit most sixes and win the match but sometimes you just have to identify the easiest value. The Punjab price is wrong. 

Mumbai Indians v Punjab Kings IPL player tips

If we're right about Yadav opening the batting it is arguable that the 11/43.75 for top MI bat is value. it is just about in the win rate value zone. And with one success so far we'd be surprised if that was it for Sky. Prab Singh is yet to win for Punjab. Likewise it won't be long before he cops. The 10/34.33 is a good hit. Another player overdue a winning bet is Arhshdeep Singh on top Punjab bowler. The 3/14.00 is way too big on the last three seasons (including this one). 

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