Mumbai Indians v Chennai Super Kings IPL Tips: CSK to take IPL Classico bragging Rights

Click here Mumbai Indians v Chennai Super Kings odds
Thursday 23 April,15:00
TV: Sky Sports

Mumbai Indians v Chennai Super Kings IPL team news

Mumbai Indians got their second win of the season by beating Gujarat Titans last time out. It was badly needed but it is fair to reckon that many will be unconvinced by the balance of the XI.

Selection continues to be scattergun. In came opener Danish Malewar for his IPL debut, back came Mitch Santner. Naman Dhir was tried at No 3. Shardul Thakur, Deepak Chahar, Maynak Rawat and Ryran Rickleton were dropped. We could go on. They've used 20 different players already.

There could be more changes if Rohit Sharma is fit or Malewar's four-ball two caused alarm. There is still the possibility of Suryakumar Yadav opening with Robin Minz coming into the middle order.

Possible XI: De Kock, Malewar/Rohit, Dhir, Sky, Tilak, Hardik, Rutherford (sub Kumar), Santner, Bhagat, Bumrah, Ghazanfar

Chennai have suffered a potential season-changing blow with the loss of Ayush Mhatre with a hamstring injury. Their top runscorer this season is out for at least six weeks. Mhatre had been striking at 177 in his breakthrough campaign.

The injuries are beginning to tot up. Khaleel Ahmed has been ruled out for the season, Nathan Ellis likewise and his replacement, Spencer Johnson, is also injured. MS Dhoni, who would probably only be used for ticket sales, has a calf strain.

Mhatre was an impact sub for bowler Gurjapneet Singh. That role could now go to hitter Urvil Patel but Matt Short is likely to move up to bat No 3.

Possible XI: Samson, Gaikwad, Short, Brevis, Urvil (Sub Gurjapneet), Sarfaraz, Dube, Overton, Kamboj, Noor, Mukesh

Mumbai Indians v Chennai Super Kings IPL pitch report

The Wankhede is not a big ground and is usually reliable for runs. The runs per over in the last 18 IPL night matches is 9.74 and more than 205.5 has been busted eight times in that period. Mumbai went unders the 20-over par line against Punjab, costing punters plenty when they posted just 195. It proved to be wholly inadequate with Punjab chasing inside 17 overs.

It does look as though 220 is required here to put the side batting second under pressure. Eleven of the last 19 have been won by the chaser. Sportsbook offer over 198.5 first-innings runs. In our study sample that has won nine from 19. Last season's CSK's 176 was easily trumped in the head-to-head.

Mumbai Indians v Chennai Super Kings IPL match prediction

Mumbai Indians are 1.664/6 favourites for IPL Classico. That is mighty short about a team which has looked confused and imbalanced every time it has gone out onto the park this season, regardless of the two wins. And one of those was against Kolkata in their opening match let's not forget.

Chennai are clear value here at an expansive 2.466/4. Yes the loss of Mhatre is unfortunate but there are big batters in this XI who need to step up. Sanju Samson, Ruturaj Gaikwad, Dewald Brevis and Shivam Dube are all more than capable of winning games on their own at this level. Indeed, their batting line-up makes more sense than MI's and despite the injuries roles are much better defined.

Batting first Chennai have the ability to flip these odds. So if letting a CSK bet run is not for you then relying on their hitters to make use of a decent track and short boundaries can make sense.

Mumbai Indians v Chennai Super Kings IPL player tips

We are still waiting on Gaikwad to deliver a top-bat win. Gaikwad has been one of the most consistent run-getters and winners on the team top bat market for the last two years. He started the tournament with a win rate of 36%. But six blanks have hit confidence for him and us. There are now shouts that he is 'out of form'.

Can a T20 batter be in poor form if, in his last outing, he hit 19 from 13? Probably not. The nature of T20 opening is that caution has to be thrown to the wind. Controlled aggression or reckless aggression is separated by a very fine line. Sometimes one crosses over to the other instantly. One has to keep the faith in quality players to deliver until there are obvious signs of something chronic (see Nic Pooran).

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