IPL Team-by-team Guide: Gujarat player drain makes them a lay

• RCB set for another stinker

• Titans lose Hardik and Shami

• Royals and LSG for top 4

• Analysts' elite players in bold

Mumbai Indians 4.707/2

To reach final: 3.2011/5
Top-four finish: 1.618/13
2023 finish: Play-offs
Batting run rate rank: 1
Bowling economy rank: 10
Highest top-bat win rate (last 2 years): Yadav 33.3%
Highest top bowler win rate (last 2 years): Chawla 37.5%

Squad: Rohit Sharma, Dewald Brevis, Suryakumar Yadav, Ishan Kishan, Tilak Varma, Tim David, Vishnu Vinod, Arjun Tendulkar, Shams Mulani, Nehal Wadhera, Jasprit Bumrah, Kumar Kartikeya, Piyush Chawla, Akash Madhwal, Jason Behrendorff (withdrawn), Romario Shepherd, Hardik Pandya, Gerald Coetzee, Dilshan Madushanka, Shreyas Gopal, Nuwan Thushara, Naman Dhir, Anshul Kamboj, Mohammad Nabi, Shivalik Sharma, Luke Wood (replacement for Jason Behrendorff)

Possible XI: Rohit, Vinod, Yadav, Tilak, Hardik, Wadhere, Nabi, Chawla, Coetzee, Bumrah, Thushara

Analysis: Mumbai are our headline tip because, man-for-man, they have the best squad. They boast four elite players on the analysts' benchmark for batting and bowling. Consider that the likes of Bumrah, Hardik and Tilak are just shy of the top marks their power is enviable. Tim David can be used a sub with our XI.

Chennai Super Kings 5.309/2

To reach final: 3.2011/5
Top-four finish: 1.705/7
2023 finish: Winners
Batting run rate rank: 2
Bowling economy rank: 3
Highest top-bat win rate (last 2 years): Gaikwad 20.6%
Highest top bowler win rate (last 2 years): Thakur 24%

Squad: MS Dhoni, Devon Conway, Ruturaj Gaikwad, Ajinkya Rahane, Shaik Rasheed, Ravindra Jadeja, Mitchell Santner, Moeen Ali, Shivam Dube, Nishant Sindhu, Ajay Mandal, Rajvardhan Hangargekar, Deepak Chahar, Maheesh Theekshana, Mukesh Chowdhary, Prashant Solanki, Simarjeet Singh, Tushar Deshpande, Matheesha Pathirana, Rachin Ravindra, Shardul Thakur, Daryl Mitchell, Sameer Rizvi, Mustafizur Rahman, Avanish Rao Aravelly

Possible XI: Gaikwad, Ravindra, Mitchell, Dube, Moeen, Jadeja, Dhoni, Thakur, Chahar, Deshpande, Pathirana

Analysis: Conway is all but ruled out of the tournament. It's a big blow for CSK to lose their top bat last year. They remain well-balanced although the pressure is on for Ravindra to prove he is worthy of a spot in the tournament - there's improvement required on his numbers. Young batting thrusters Rizvi and Rasheed stand by to make an impression. It's hard to argue they are a wrong price given they're not quite as strong.

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Gujarat Titans 10.519/2

To reach final: 3.7511/4
Top-four finish: 1.8810/11
To finish bottom: 11.010/1
2023 finish: Runners-up
Batting run rate rank: 4
Bowling economy rank: 1
Highest top-bat win rate (last 2 years): Gill 30.3%
Highest top bowler win rate (last 2 years): Mohit 21.4%

Squad: David Miller, Shubman Gill, Matthew Wade, Wriddhiman Saha, Kane Williamson, Abhinav Manohar, B Sai Sudharsan, Darshan Nalkande, Vijay Shankar, Jayant Yadav, Rahul Tewatia, Mohammed Shami, Noor Ahmad, R Sai Kishore, Rashid Khan, Josh Little, Mohit Sharma, Azmatullah Omarzai, Umesh Yadav, Shahrukh Khan, Sushant Mishra, Kartik Tyagi, Manav Suthar, Spencer Johnson, Robin Minz

Possible XI: Gill, Saha, Sai, Kane, Shankar, Miller, Tewatia, Rashid, Mohit, Johnson, Umesh

Analysis: There are no elite players in that XI, even if Rashid Khan is very close. There's none on the bench, either. If Kane Williamson, who performs below the mean, is picked they could find fast runs hard to come by. Last term it was perhaps a blessing that the Kiwi was ruled out with injury. The loss of Hardik Pandya (MI) and Mohammad Shami (injury) are terrible blows. It will be interesting to see if Spencer Johnson can buck the trend of Aussie pacers struggling. Around 2.001/1 to lay that they don't make the top four is a bet.

Royals Challengers Bangalore 9.08/1

To reach final: 4.30100/30
Top-four finish: 2.466/4
Top finish bottom: 9.08/1
2023 finish: 6
Batting run rate rank: 5
Bowling economy rank: 6
Highest top-bat win rate (last 2 years): Kohli/Du Plessis 26.7%
Highest top bowler win rate (last 2 years): n/a

Squad: Faf du Plessis, Glenn Maxwell, Virat Kohli, Rajat Patidar, Anuj Rawat, Dinesh Karthik, Suyash Prabhudessai, Will Jacks, Mahipal Lomror, Karn Sharma, Manoj Bhandage, Mayank Dagar (trade), Vyshak Vijaykumar, Akash Deep, Mohammed Siraj, Reece Topley, Himanshu Sharma, Rajan Kumar, Cameron Green, Alzarri Joseph, Yash Dayal, Lockie Ferguson, Tom Curran, Swapnil Singh, Saurav Chauhan

Possible XI: Kohli, Jacks, Patidar, Maxwell, Green, Chauhan, Lomror, Karthik, Deep, Topley, Siraj

Analysis: There's a lot to unpack here for RCB. First of all, on a home ground which is a road they've dispensed with two elite bowlers in Hasaranga and Harshal in recent years, while Hazlewood was no mug. The 'n-a' in the top wicket-taker column tells a story. They are essentially as short as they are because of Kohli, a man who doesn't even bust the mean benchmarks for batters. They will do well to make the play-offs. As ever, we lay them odds-on for any game.

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Rajasthan Royals 9.6017/2

To reach final: 4.30100/30
Top-four finish: 2.466/4
To finish bottom: 9.08/1
2023 finish: 5
Batting run rate rank: 7
Bowling economy rank: 5
Highest top-bat win rate (last 2 years): Buttler 38.7%
Highest top bowler win rate (last 2 years): Chahal 35.4%

Squad: Sanju Samson, Jos Buttler, Shimron Hetmyer, Yashasvi Jaiswal, Dhruv Jurel, Riyan Parag, Donovan Ferreira, Kunal Rathore, R Ashwin, Kuldeep Sen, Navdeep Saini, Sandeep Sharma, Trent Boult, Yuzvendra Chahal, Adam Zampa, Prasidh Krishna, Avesh Khan, Rovman Powell, Shubham Dubey, Tom Kohler-Cadmore, Abid Mushtaq, Nandre Burger

Possible XI: Buttler, Jaiswal, Samson, Powell, Ferreira, Parag, Jurel, Ashwin, Avesh, Boult, Chahal

Analysis: There's no elites here but a crop of players miss out by a whisker. Sureley with Buttler and Jaiswal firing up front and the likes of Jurel at the death they score quicker? The balance will the ball is excellent. It's a slight mystery as to why Adam Zampa is involved given their spin depth. Another pacer would have made sense. They should benefit from Gujarat's player drain and make the play-offs. The 2.466/4 is a bet.

Lucknow Super Giants 12.011/1

To reach final: 4.507/2
Top-four finish: 2.245/4
Top finish bottom: 8.07/1
2023 finish: Play-offs
Batting run rate rank: 8
Bowling economy rank: 2
Highest top-bat win rate (last 2 years): De Kock 36.8%
Highest top bowler win rate (last 2 years): Mohsin 28.5%

Squad: KL Rahul, Quinton de Kock, Nicholas Pooran, Ayush Badoni, Deepak Hooda, K Gowtham, Krunal Pandya, Kyle Mayers, Marcus Stoinis, Prerak Mankad, Yudhvir Singh, Mark Wood (withdrawn, replaced by Shamar Joseph), Mayank Yadav, Mohsin Khan, Ravi Bishnoi, Yash Thakur, Amit Mishra, Naveen-ul-Haq, Devdutt Padikkal, Shivam Mavi, Arshin Kulkarni, M. Siddharth, Ashton Turner, David Willey, Arshad Khan

Possible XI: De Kock, Rahul, Padikkal, Pooran, Hooda, Stoinis, Krunal, Bishnoi, Mohsin, Mavi, Naveen

Analysis: Lucknow are a team to like, not least because they appear to be significantly underrated on the market. They are solid rather than spectacular and they are more likely to grind out wins than blaze to glory. This suits their tricky home batting surface. Southpaw Mohsin is a big runner on the top bowler markets.

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Sunriser Hyderabad 12.5

To reach final: 5.04/1
Top-four finish: 2.588/5
To finish bottom: 7.4013/2
2023 finish: 10
Batting run rate rank: 9
Bowling economy rank: 7
Highest top-bat win rate (last 2 years): Abhishek 32%
Highest top bowler win rate (last 2 years): Natarajan 30.4%

Squad: Abdul Samad, Aiden Markram, Rahul Tripathi, Glenn Phillips, Mayank Agarwal, Heinrich Klaasen, Anmolpreet Singh, Upendra Yadav, Nitish Kumar Reddy, Abhishek Sharma, Marco Jansen, Washington Sundar, Sanvir Singh, Bhuvneshwar Kumar, Fazalhaq Farooqi, T Natarajan, Umran Malik, Mayank Markande, Shahbaz Ahmed, Travis Head, Wanindu Hasaranga, Pat Cummins, Jaydev Unadkat, Akash Singh, Jhathavedh Subramanyan

Possible XI: Abhishek, Head, Tripathi, Klaasen, Hasaranga, Samad, Sundar, Cummins, Kumar, Natarajan, Markande,

Analysis: Sunrisers couldn't work out their best XI last year and that is likely to be their greatest challenge this time. Given they've made Pat Cummins, who has dreadful numbers for the price tag, is their skip it's a bad start. Glenn Phillips, Marco Jansen and Faz Farooqi, all locks elsewhere, may struggle to get a game. Wanindu Hasaranga and Heinrich Klaasen should win them enough games to improve on last year's bottom-placed finish but the lack of domestic talent is an issue.

Kolkata Knight Riders 15.5

To reach final: 6.25/1
Top-four finish: 2.8615/8
Top finish bottom: 5.59/2
2023 finish: 7
Batting run rate rank: 6
Bowling economy rank: 8
Highest top-bat win rate (last 2 years): Russell 28%
Highest top bowler win rate (last 2 years): Russell 28%

Squad: Nitish Rana, Rinku Singh, Rahmanullah Gurbaz, Shreyas Iyer, Jason Roy, Anukul Roy, Andre Russell, Venkatesh Iyer, Suyash Sharma, Harshit Rana, Sunil Narine, Vaibhav Arora, Varun Chakravarthy, KS Bharat, Chetan Sakariya, Mitchell Starc, Angkrish Raghuvanshi, Ramandeep Singh, Sherfane Rutherford, Manish Pandey, Mujeeb Ur Rahman, Gus Atkinson, Sakib Hussain, Dushmantha Chameera (replacement for Gus Atkinson), Phil Salt (replacement for Jason Roy)

Possible XI: Salt, Venkatesh, Shreyas, Rana, Rinku, Russell, Ramandeep, Narine, Starc, Varun/Suyash, Sakariya

Analysis: KKR are hard not to like. They have, on the face of it, strong domestic talent. Further inspection of the returns of their homegrown players reveal too few hitting above the mean metrics, though. Shyreyas Iyer's back is a major worry while they must hope Andre Russell continues to roll back the years. Fitness is a major issue with this lot. But if they can keep their best players on their park they may be the most likely to cause an upset. Using elite spinner Suyash as a sub is a boost.

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Delhi Capitals 18.017/1

To reach final: 6.205/1
Top-four finish: 2.8615/8
To finish bottom: 5.709/2
2023 finish: 9
Batting run rate rank: 10
Bowling economy rank: 4
Highest top-bat win rate (last 2 years): Warmer 42%
Highest top bowler win rate (last 2 years): Mukesh 20%

Squad: Rishabh Pant, David Warner, Prithvi Shaw, Yash Dhull, Abishek Porel, Axar Patel, Lalit Yadav, Mitchell Marsh, Pravin Dubey, Vicky Ostwal, Anrich Nortje, Kuldeep Yadav, Khaleel Ahmed, Ishant Sharma, Mukesh Kumar, Tristan Stubbs, Ricky Bhui, Kumar Kushagra, Rasikh Dar, Jhye Richardson, Sumit Kumar, Shai Hope, Swastik Chhikara, Jake Fraser-McGurk (replacement for Lungi Ngidi)

Possible XI: Shaw/Yash Dhull, Warner, M Marsh, Fraser-McGurk, Pant, Stubbs, Axar, Kuldeep, Mukesh, Khaleel, Nortje

Analysis: The injury to Lungi Ngidi robs them of their sole elite player. Harry Brook's withdrawal is a blow and Jake Fraser-McGurk in his place doesn't fill the void left by a player who busted mean benchmarks. Add in concerns over Rishabh Pant's form and fitness and a lack of a proven bowling all-rounder then you have a recipe for struggle.

Punjab Kings 21.020/1

To reach final: [7.20]
Top-four finish: 3.1085/40
To finish bottom: 5.004/1
2023 finish: 8
Batting run rate rank: 3
Bowling economy rank: 9
Highest top-bat win rate (last 2 years): Livingstone 30%
Highest top bowler win rate (last 2 years): Rabada 36.8%

Squad: Shikhar Dhawan, Jitesh Sharma, Jonny Bairstow, Prabhsimran Singh, Liam Livingstone, Matthew Short, Harpreet Bhatia, Atharva Taide, Rishi Dhawan, Sam Curran, Sikandar Raza, Shivam Singh, Harpreet Brar, Arshdeep Singh, Kagiso Rabada, Nathan Ellis, Rahul Chahar, Gurnoor Brar, Vidwath Kaverappa, Harshal Patel, Chris Woakes, Ashutosh Sharma, Vishwanath Pratap Singh, Shashank Singh, Tanay Thyagarajan, Prince Choudhary, Rilee Rossouw

Possible XI: Dhawan, Prab Singh, Bairstow/Short, Livingstone, Taide, Jitesh, S Curran, Harshal, Harpreet/Chahar, Arshdeep, Rabada

Analysis: Punjab have not made the play-offs since 2014. Compared to other squads, this crew are going to find it hard to end that sequence. We're far from convinced about Jonny Bairstow these days while Sam Curran's struggles on India pitches is well-known. Harshal Patel is a good signing.

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Ed's predicted finish

Mumbai Indians
Chennai Super Kings
Rajasthan Royals
Lucknow Super Giants
Kolkata Knight Riders
Royal Challengers Bangalore
Sunrisers Hyderabad
Delhi Capitals
Punjab Kings

Now read why Mumbai are hard to stop here!

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