Gujarat Titans v Rajasthan Royals
Sunday 29 May, 11:00
TV: live on Sky Sports
Titans poised
Gujarat Titans finished top of the ladder and breezed into the final with a late dismantling of Rajasthan in the qualifier.
It is quite the achievement, in their first season, to have recorded 11 wins and to have consistently proved the doubters wrong. Although they are vastly superior with the ball, anyone who saw David Miller take down Prasidh Krishna will be hard tasked to say they are a one-trick pony.
They have three batters striking at more than 135 (Miller, Shubmann Gill and Rahul Tewatia) while Hardik Pandya is one of the few India T20 players having a career-enhancing season.
As for weaknesses, Yash Dayal looks vulnerable with the ball. Gujarat could gamble and go with only five options and lengthen their batting.
Possible XI: Saha, Gill, Wade, Pandya, Miller, Tewatia, Rashid Khan, Joseph Kishore, Dayal, Shami.
Royals hit back
The Royals looked panic-stricken after defeat by Gujarat in the first play-off. They had abandoned their death-bowling plans after one shot of Miller's onslaught and persistent worries about their leakiness in the fields looked likely to cost them.
They were unfounded against Bangalore, though. They expertly squeezed an RCB line-up which only a game before against Lucknow had been carefree and aggressive.
Jos Buttler, of course, pinched the headlines with another century but the real star was perhaps Ravi Ashwin whose four miserly overs set up Obed McCoy and Krishna (this time) to keep heads at the death.
Royals have been gambling on a five-man attack. Whether they stick to it remains to be seen considering that twice Gujarat have milked them.
Probable XI: Jaiswal, Buttler, Samson, Paddikal, Hetmyer, Parag, Ashwin, Boult, Krishna, McCoy, Chahal.
Pitch report
Prior to the Royals-RCB play-off game in Ahmedabad, only twice had both sides breached 170 and only four teams had busted the same in the first dig. There was a chase bias with nine from 15 winning batting second.
The trend continued across all three fronts. Bangalore made it look like a tacky, two-paced pitch. There were even suggestions that their total of 157 was competitive. Not so. Buttler blasted away contentedly.
Still, we're on short side. A runs par line in the 170s must surely be taken on. Gujarat's stellar bowling can becalm the Royals batting while we know that Titans do not go hard and hit recklessly. You can bet the market here.
Gujarat have the edge
It is quite right that the teams that finished first and second are in the final. It's the best bowling unit versus the best batting line-up respectively. It's probably right that it's a pick 'em affair with Gujarat marginal outsiders at 2.001/1 and Royals 1.981/1.
Still, it should not be ignored that Gujarat have beaten Royals twice. And comfortably, too. One by seven wickets and another by 37 runs.
Royals' strength is blowing teams away with the bat, inspired Buttler. Hell, it's a great tactice and we're not saying it won't work again.
But on balance, is that all Royals have got? If Buttler doesn't fire, or someone else, against the hands-down the best bowling unit, what else can they do? Bowl like dervishes?
Maybe. But the myth that Gujarat are weak with the willow has been exposed time and time again. It's Gujarat's to lose.
Tops value
Buttler has been boosted to 21/10 for top Royals bat with Sportsbook. It is likely to prove an exceed-ingly popular wager. He is also 3/1 for top match bat and 11/2 for man of the match. For Gujarat, Gill has been Mr Reliable. He has also been boosted to 7/2.
Rashid Khan is 11/4 for most Royals wickets although with three left-handers in the top five he might look to bowl dry. Ashwin is chunky at 5/1 for top Royals bowler. The pair are 8/1 and 12/1 respectively for man of the match. Bet the Sportsbook markets here.